世界银行-乌兹别克斯坦的气候适应：景观恢复机遇（英）-2024-91页_4mb

Climate Adaptation in Uzbekistan: Landscape Restoration Opportunities Summary

Uzbekistan faces significant climate risks, including rising temperatures, droughts, and floods, exacerbated by land degradation. With 44.9 million hectares of land, 47% is natural pasture, and agriculture employs 27% of the workforce. Climate change poses severe threats to crop yields, water resources, and livelihoods, with land degradation contributing to economic losses and reduced ecosystem services. The study's analysis identifies key vulnerabilities across agriculture, forests, and water resources by mid-century.

The future risk hotspots combine climate risk, land degradation, natural hazards, and population pressure, concentrated in the Ferghana Valley, Tashkent, and the Aral Sea region. Climate projections indicate increased heat, reduced rainfall, and glacial melt, with annual temperature rises of 1.78–1.94°C by mid-century. These trends affect hydropower, labor productivity, and infrastructure. The country's GDP risk from inaction is substantial, estimated at US$2.8 billion annually (4.6% of GDP), driven by crop losses, water shortages, and infrastructure damage.

To address these challenges, the study proposes climate-smart landscape restoration technologies, such as conservation agriculture, water-efficient irrigation, and erosion control. Modeling shows that investment in 1.6 million hectares of degraded land could yield significant benefits, with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 19–15.8 for two investment portfolios. The analysis prioritizes interventions in eastern regions like Tashkent and Ferghana, which offer higher returns on ecosystem services like erosion control, water regulation, and carbon sequestration.

Policy recommendations include institutional reforms, such as integrating landscape restoration into national adaptation plans, promoting public-private partnerships, and enhancing knowledge-sharing platforms. Financial strategies involve mobilizing public and private funding through green finance mechanisms, impact investing, and carbon credit frameworks. The study underscores that landscape restoration is a pathway to achieve Uzbekistan's development goals, including moving toward middle-income status and enhancing food security under climate pressures.