期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-fall2003_48页_553kb

NBER Program on Economic Fluctuations and Growth Summary

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920, dedicated to objective quantitative analysis of the American economy. In Fall 2003, the NBER's Program on Economic Fluctuations and Growth (EFG) celebrated its 25th anniversary. The program has been instrumental in analyzing long-term economic performance and business cycles, with a particular focus on the U.S. economy's expansion in the 1990s and subsequent recession beginning in March 2001. The Business Cycle Dating Committee, hosted by the EFG program, identified the recession's end in November 2001, marking an eight-month downturn, which was shorter than the average for post-WWII recessions.

Main Research Areas

1. Economic Fluctuations and Growth

• The EFG program has been pivotal in analyzing both growth and economic fluctuations.
• The Business Cycle Dating Committee uses GDP and other indicators to identify business cycles, emphasizing output over employment.
• The 2001 recession was shorter than the average, and the recovery saw lower GDP growth compared to historical averages.
• Productivity growth during the recession and recovery was unusually high, leading to a slower decline in employment.

2. Research Meetings and Groups

• The EFG program organizes three annual research meetings, featuring the most significant macroeconomic papers.
• These meetings occur during the NBER's Summer Institute and other times, fostering collaboration and innovation in macroeconomic research.

3. Economic Growth

• Led by Charles I. Jones and Peter J. Klenow, this group investigates long-run economic performance, including cross-country income differences, firm-level productivity, and technical progress.
• Lutz Hendricks' research highlights that less than half of the income gap between countries can be attributed to human and physical capital.
• Simon Djankov et al. examine the regulatory environment for start-up firms and its impact on income disparities.
• Daron Acemoglu et al. explore how institutions and historical factors influence growth and development, showing that colonialism and trade shaped Western European growth.

4. Consumption

• Orazio Attanasio, Christopher D. Carroll, and Jose Victor Rios-Rull lead research on consumption behavior.
• Studies reveal that the timing of tax rebate checks significantly affects household spending, challenging standard consumption theories.
• Research on durable goods and their impact on consumption patterns, especially during economic downturns, has been a key focus.
• Papers by Antonia Diaz and María José Luengo-Prado suggest that durable goods ownership affects the interpretation of wealth inequality.

5. Income Distribution and Macroeconomics

• Roland Benabou, Steven N. Durlauf, and Oded Galor lead this group, focusing on inequality, its sources, and consequences.
• The group studies how credit constraints and contractual imperfections affect income and growth.
• Research by Oded Galor and Andrew Mountford shows how 19th-century trade patterns delayed demographic transitions in countries like India.
• Papers also explore the political economy of inequality, including the impact of social mobility on support for redistributive policies.

6. Forecasting and Empirical Methods

• Mark W. Watson and Kenneth D. West lead this group, which emphasizes the development of econometric methods for macroeconomic and financial forecasting.
• Factor models and VAR models are used to analyze macroeconomic data and assess monetary policy effects.
• The group's work suggests that the Federal Reserve's response to shocks, especially during the Greenspan era, was more sensitive to aggregate demand than to technology shocks.

7. The Labor Market

• Richard Rogerson, Robert Shimer, and Randall Wright lead research on labor market dynamics.
• The group investigates how labor market frictions affect unemployment, job creation, and wage determination.
• Studies indicate that traditional models of wage determination, such as Nash bargaining, may not fully explain cyclical unemployment fluctuations.
• Research also examines the role of labor market institutions, including contracts, taxes, and regulations, on economic outcomes.

8. Capital Markets and the Economy

• Janice C. Eberly and Deborah J. Lucas lead this group, focusing on the interaction between financial and real markets.
• The group analyzes the effects of regulation, financing constraints, and capital structure on investment.
• Studies show that regulation negatively affects physical capital investment, and that credit allocation may not improve firm performance.
• Research on portfolio choice and financial investment behavior by entrepreneurs highlights the influence of capital constraints on risk preferences.

9. Impulses and Propagation Mechanisms

• Martin S. Eichenbaum and Lawrence J. Christiano lead this group, which investigates the sources of economic fluctuations and how shocks propagate across the economy.
• The group focuses on technology shocks and their effects on employment and economic activity.
• Empirical general equilibrium models are used to understand the transmission of shocks and the effectiveness of policy responses.

Key Information

• Business Cycle Dating Committee: Identified the 2001 recession and its end in November 2001.
• NBER Funding: Relies on contributions from individuals, corporations, and private foundations.
• Research Contributions: The program has been a major contributor to macroeconomic theory and empirical analysis, influencing policy and academic understanding.
• Public Information: The NBER Reporter is not copyrighted and can be freely reproduced with proper attribution.

Conclusion

The NBER's EFG program has played a critical role in shaping macroeconomic research over the past 25 years. Its work spans a wide range of topics, from business cycles and labor markets to capital markets and income inequality. By combining empirical and theoretical approaches, the program continues to provide valuable insights into the functioning of the U.S. and global economies.