20151009-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_749kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
Oil & Gas Price Movements (8 October 2015)
- Brent Crude Oil: Rose by 3.4% to USD53.05 per barrel.
- WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 3.4% to USD49.43 per barrel.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Fell by 2.6% to USD49.38 per barrel.
- China Daqing Spot: Decreased by 2.2% to USD45.67 per barrel.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price for LNG, with a 2.2% decline.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Increased by 0.4% to USD61.18 per barrel.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Fell by 1.8% to USD61.62 per barrel.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Rose by 1.6% to USD257.57 per metric ton.
- Gold: Dropped by 0.6% to USD1,139.01 per ounce.
- USD-CNY: No change at 6.35.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Increased by 0.8% to 17,050.75.
- S&P 500: Rose by 0.9% to 2,013.43.
News Headlines
- Crude hits three-month high: US crude briefly surged above $50 per barrel, closing at a three-month high. The increase was attributed to speculation about rising demand and a forecast from Pira Energy Group predicting prices to reach $70 per barrel by 2016 and $75 by 2017.
- Run rates at Shandong independents fall to 46.1%: Operating rates at independent refineries in Shandong dropped to 46.1%, down from 47.1% three weeks ago and up from 42.0% year-on-year. Total throughput decreased to 122,000 tonnes/day.
- Libya's Oil Export Capacity Rises: Zueitina Port reopened, allowing the first crude shipment since May, with the export route reopened after job promises to protesters.
- IOC wants flexible prices in LNG contracts: IOC aims to avoid price lock-ins, as seen with Petronet LNG, which faces challenges with its long-term contract with RasGas.
Company Plans
- Company plans new $11bn LNG plant: G2 LNG, led by the former Louisiana governor, plans to build an LNG export facility in the US, with construction starting in 2017 and delivery in 2020.
Key Companies and Valuation Insights
Asia Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (8-Oct) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 6.14 | 4.80 | 231.8 | 92.5 | 27.0 | 47.0 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.41 | 6.00 | 91.4 | 73.3 | 13.1 | 14.3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.95 | 11.70 | 51.6 | 91.9 | 16.4 | 19.4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.04 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 19.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 257.7 | NR | 34.0 | 18.8 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 889.1 | NR | 44.4 | 53.4 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 168.7 | 198.00 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.5 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 855.0 | NR | 9.5 | 24.6 | 19.7 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 789.5 | NR | 4.1 | 25.0 | 20.2 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 7.00 | 11.25 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 16.0 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | Buy | 3.50 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 0.7 | 2.9 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 70,600 | NR | 6.9 | 19.3 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 15.6 | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 114,000 | NR | 9.1 | 36.4 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 49,150 | NR | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 80.10 | NR | 23.6 | 7.1 | 19.9 | 21.2 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 14.8 | 2.9 | 3.5 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 59.8 | 87.00 | 7.5 | 22.5 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 11.3 | 1.1 | 4.7 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 266.0 | 395.00 | 21.2 | 61.8 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 4.2 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 56.0 | 65.00 | 3.2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 13.4 | 1.2 | 4.5 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.6 | 12.5 | -21.1 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
Malaysia
- Gas Malaysia: Buy rating, price at USD2.44, target price USD2.65, market cap USD0.8 billion, 90-day throughput USD0.1 billion, PER 25.4 (2015E), EV/EBITDA 14.2 (2015E), ROE 12.2%, P/BV 3.1, Yield 3.9%.
- Petronas Gas: Hold rating, price at USD22.60, target price USD24.00, market cap USD10.8 billion, 90-day throughput USD7.5 billion, PER 24.7 (2015E), EV/EBITDA 14.8 (2015E), ROE 16.7%, P/BV 4.0, Yield 2.8%.
Philippines
- Petron Corp: Buy rating, price at USD7.00, target price USD11.25, market cap USD1.4 billion, 90-day throughput USD0.5 billion, PER 16.0 (2015E), EV/EBITDA 7.9 (2015E), ROE 4.4%, P/BV 0.7, Yield 0.7%.
Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Gas: Buy rating, price at USD47,600, target price USD92,000, market cap USD4.1 billion, 90-day throughput USD1.1 billion, PER 10.6 (2015E), EV/EBITDA 5.0 (2015E), ROE 23.9%, P/BV 2.3, Yield 7.5%.
Asian Oil & Gas Average
- PER (2015E): 18.7
- PER (2016E): 26.9
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 2.1
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 7.2
- ROE %: 6.2
- P/BV (x): 1.1
- Yield (%): 2.3
Analysts Contact
| Country | Analyst | Phone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HK/CHINA | Howard Wong | (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk |
| INDIA | Jigar Shah | (91) 2266232632 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in |
| INDONESIA | Pandu Anugrah | (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id |
| MALAYSIA | Liaw Thong Jung | (603) 22978688 | tjiaw@maybank-ib.com |
| PHILIPPINES | Michael Bengson | (63) 28498840 | micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com |
| SINGAPORE | Yeah Chee Keong | (65) 6231 5842 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg |
| THAILAND | Sutthichai Kumworachai | (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th |
| VIETNAM | Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen | (84) 844555888×8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn |
| VIETNAM | Truong Quang Binh | (84) 444555888 x 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn |
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