20151112-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_378kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market, including price movements, news headlines, and analyst reports from various countries in Asia and beyond. It highlights key trends, company-specific updates, and valuation data for major players in the sector.
Main Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Rose slightly to USD47.44/b overnight.
- WTI Crude Oil: Fell by 2.9% to USD42.93/b.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: At USD44.37/barrel, with a -2.8% weekly change and -13.1% monthly change.
- China Daqing Spot: At USD40.75/barrel, with a -2.7% weekly change and -14.1% monthly change.
- NYMEX December Gas Futures: Fell 5.7 cents to $2.263/mmBtu due to milder-than-expected weather forecasts.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: At USD7.28/MMBtu, with a 0.5% weekly increase and 8.7% monthly increase.
- Gold: At USD1,089.67/Oz, with a -0.2% daily change and -5.8% monthly change.
- USD-CNY: At 6.36, with a 0.3% monthly change.
- DJI: At 17,758.21, with a 0.2% daily increase and -0.9% weekly decrease.
- S&P 500: At 2,081.72, with a 0.2% daily increase and -1.3% weekly decrease.
News Headlines
-
Oil falls on supply glut worries
- Crude oil prices fell by about 3% on Wednesday.
- US crude inventories increased by 6.3 million barrels, surpassing analyst expectations.
- Iraqi oil exports to the US are expected to rise by 40% in November.
-
Major Oil Companies Have Half-Trillion Dollars to Fund Takeovers
- The top six publicly traded oil producers have over $500 billion in cash and stock for acquisitions.
- Exxon Mobil leads with $320 billion, followed by Chevron ($65 billion) and BP ($53 billion).
- Anadarko withdrew its offer to buy Apache, making both companies takeover targets.
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Malaysia's Petronas cuts state dividend
- Petronas is slashing its 2016 dividend to the government by nearly 40%, from 26 billion ringgit to 16 billion ringgit.
- This is due to a 91% drop in quarterly profit, driven by weak global crude prices.
-
NYMEX December gas futures fall
- The drop is attributed to milder weather forecasts in the US Northeast and Midwest.
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Tokyo Gas and Pertamina Plan LNG Receiving Terminal in Indonesia
- The terminal will be located in Bojonegara, West Java and is expected to be operational by 2018.
- It has a capacity of 200,000 to 400,000 kiloliters and will cost around 100 billion yen.
- It will be used for domestic factories and power plants.
- Mitsui & Co. and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation are expected to take stakes.
Analyst Ratings and Reports
Malaysia Oil & Gas
- PETRONAS: NEUTRAL rating. Dividend cut to MYR16b in 2016, with no headcount cut.
- PTT Global Chemical: HOLD rating. Weak 3Q15 results, with THB1.2b profit, down 87% from previous quarter.
- Bumi Armada: BUY rating. Possible strategic partnership with MISC is viewed positively.
- Gas Malaysia: BUY rating. Target price MYR2.65.
- Petronas Gas: HOLD rating. Target price MYR24.00.
China Oil & Gas
- China Oil & Gas: OVERWEIGHT rating. GRM is expected to rebound.
- PetroChina - H: Sell rating. Price MYR5.75, target price MYR4.80.
- Sinopec - H: Buy rating. Price MYR5.23, target price MYR6.00.
- CNOOC LTD: Buy rating. Price MYR8.43, target price MYR11.34.
- New Ocean Energy: Buy rating. Price MYR3.07, target price MYR7.70.
India Oil & Gas
- ONGC: NR rating. Price 237.0, with 8.5x PER and 4.4x EV/EBITDA.
- Reliance Industries: NR rating. Price 928.5, with 12.4x PER and 10.5x EV/EBITDA.
- Cairn India: Hold rating. Price 138.3, target price 198.00.
- BPCL: NR rating. Price 889.5, with 20.2x PER and 10.8x EV/EBITDA.
- HPCL: NR rating. Price 743.6, with 18.8x PER and 8.8x EV/EBITDA.
Japan Oil & Gas
- INPEX: NR rating. Price 1,217, with 19.6x PER and 3.2x EV/EBITDA.
- JAPEX: NR rating. Price 3,480, with 5.6x PER and 16.3x EV/EBITDA.
- JX Holding: NR rating. Price 472, with N/A PER and -255.1x EV/EBITDA.
- Showa Shell: NR rating. Price 1,074, with 20.6x PER and N/A EV/EBITDA.
- TonenGeneral: NR rating. Price 1,257, with 23.1x PER and 13.1x EV/EBITDA.
- Idemitsu: NR rating. Price 1,984, with N/A PER and -15.9x EV/EBITDA.
- Cosmo: NR rating. Price 164, with N/A PER and N/A EV/EBITDA.
Philippines Oil & Gas
- Petron Corp: Buy rating. Price MYR8.05, target price MYR11.25.
- Phoenix Petro: Buy rating. Price MYR3.70, target price MYR4.75.
Taiwan Oil & Gas
- Formosa Petrochemical: NR rating. Price MYR75.20.
- Bangchak Petroleum: Buy rating. Price MYR35.50, target price MYR41.00.
- IRPC PCL: Hold rating. Price MYR4.04, target price MYR3.74.
- PTT Global Chemical PCL: Buy rating. Price MYR54.50, target price MYR87.00.
- Thai Oil PCL: Sell rating. Price MYR56.75, target price MYR65.00.
Vietnam Oil & Gas
- PetroVietnam Gas: Buy rating. Price MYR45,800, target price MYR92,000.
Valuation Summary
| Company | Rating | Price | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE 2015E | P/BV 2015E | Yield 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | Sell | 5.75 | 4.80 | 251.6 | 81.0 | 25.7 | 44.7 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Sinopec - H | Buy | 5.23 | 6.00 | 98.5 | 68.4 | 12.9 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| CNOOC LTD | Buy | 8.43 | 11.34 | 49.5 | 92.8 | 16.0 | 19.2 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 4.6 |
| New Ocean Energy | Buy | 3.07 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| ONGC | NR | 237.0 | NR | 30.6 | 16.8 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 13.3 | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| Reliance Industries | NR | 928.5 | NR | 45.1 | 49.6 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | Hold | 138.3 | 198.00 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 11.7 | 0.4 | 6.6 |
| BPCL | NR | 889.5 | NR | 9.6 | 20.6 | 20.2 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| HPCL | NR | 743.6 | NR | 3.8 | 20.9 | 18.8 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Petron Corp | Buy | 8.05 | 11.25 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 17.6 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | Buy | 3.70 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| S-OIL | NR | 66,100 | NR | 6.5 | 18.6 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| SK Innovation | NR | 114,000 | NR | 9.3 | 36.3 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| GS Holdings | NR | 50,800 | NR | 4.1 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | Buy | 54.50 | 87.00 | 6.9 | 18.9 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 11.3 | 1.0 | 4.8 |
| PTT PCL | Buy | 278.0 | 395.00 | 22.1 | 62.1 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| Thai Oil PCL | Sell | 56.8 | 65.00 | 3.1 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 13.7 | 1.2 | 4.6 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | 13.0 | 12.3 | -18.5 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 1.6 | 3.2 |
Key Points
- Oil prices are under pressure due to supply glut concerns, with WTI falling 2.9% and Brent rising slightly.
- Petronas is facing profit declines and is cutting its state dividend significantly.
- LNG projects are advancing, with Tokyo Gas and Pertamina planning a new terminal in Indonesia.
- Takeover activity is on the rise, with major oil companies having substantial capital for acquisitions.
- Analyst ratings vary, with some companies being BUY, others HOLD, and a few SELL based on performance and market outlook.
- Valuation metrics such as PER and EV/EBITDA are provided for various companies, offering insight into their financial health and market position.
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