20231215-创元期货-镍2023年度报告_产能释放周期下的镍价需要更低价格才能再平衡_26页_1mb

Nickel 2023 Annual Report Summary

Market Overview 2023

The global nickel market in 2023 was characterized by a sustained downward trend in prices, largely due to excess supply and reduced demand. Ni prices started at a high of approximately 230,000 yuan/ton and fell to a low of 1,218,000 yuan/ton by year-end. This was driven by the ramp-up of electric nickel production, particularly in China and Indonesia, post the 2022 LME nickel逼仓 event. Key factors included low inventory in 2022 sustaining high prices initially, but supply surges led to accumulation of refined nickel inventory. Overall, the year saw a shift from tight supply to potential surplus, with prices experiencing four distinct phases of decline.

Supply Analysis

Global supply expanded significantly in 2023, with refined nickel production increasing by 7%. China's contribution was pivotal, with domestic electric nickel capacity growing by 39% due to new projects like those from Huayu and Greinno. Indonesia's NPI and wet-process nickel sectors saw substantial output increases, with NPI production up 20%. However, high-cost overseas water extraction nickel saw a slight decline, and the supply-side dynamics contributed to excess capacity. In 2024, supply growth is expected to continue at 105,000 tons, primarily from China and Indonesia's zongbi enterprise projects.

Demand Analysis

Demand remained constrained despite long-term hopes from the new energy sector. Stainless steel consumption continued as a base demand with stable nickel usage, while three yuan forward body demand fell by 5% in 2023 due to competition from lithium iron phosphate batteries. Although some recovery in economic conditions may boost demand in 2024, total global nickel consumption for new energy applications is projected to grow modestly, with further risks from Indonesia's wet-process nickel overcapacity. Nickel-based alloys demand is unclear due to military involvement and reported softness.

Inventory Summary

Inventory accumulation was a defining feature in 2023, with China's domestic refined nickel stockpiles rising from 410,000 tons at year-start to 1.74 million tons by December 8th. This was intensified by supply releases from ongoing and new capacities, while downstream consumption failed to absorb the excess. The LME registry also remained low and may start accumulating if lower nickel prices facilitate arbitrage.

2024 Outlook

Nickel prices are expected to continue declining in 2024, assuming no supply-side cuts, and will likely approach benchmark nickel mine production costs. Production increases are forecast at 105,000 tons in electric nickel, but demand recovery remains weak. Key uncertainties include potential overseas supply reductions in high-cost operations, such as water extraction nickel, and unexpected demand spikes in electric vehicles or storage applications. Overall, the market remains in a rebalancing phase, with inventory accumulation persisting into the year.