20240321-中国银河-美联储FOMC会议_联储中性偏鸽_对经济增长下的去通胀抱有信心_5页_733kb

U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Summary (March 20, 2024)

• Key Decisions: Fed maintained federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5%, continuing quantitative tightening (QT) plan. QT proceeds planned at approximately $95 billion/month for March.

• Economic Projections: Significantly upwardly revised GDP growth forecast to 21% for 2024, adjustable core PCE inflation increased to 26%, and unemployment rate lowered slightly to 40% median expectation, reflecting confidence in soft landing scenario.

• Policy Statements: Chair Powell confirmed rate peak has been reached, emphasized commitment to curb inflation via real interest rates, and noted moderation in QT pace expected soon. Long-term rate forecasts elevated due to potential higher neutral rates.

• Interest Rate Trajectory: Projected three 25-basis point cuts totaling 75 basis points in 2024, but dots plot indicates risk of reduction if inflation concerns rise; long-term rates seen higher.

• Market Impacts: Fed's neutral bias led to rally in U.S. indices, decline in Treasury yields (e.g., 2-year yield down ~87 basis points), and market expectation of June as first cut date.

• Risks: Moderated anticipation of soft landing; vigilant about second inflation surge unless data supports ongoing disinflation and labor market cooling. If core CPI remains above 3%, cuts may falter.