2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Gambia_Request_for_a_Three_92页_1mb

Summary of The Gambia: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

The Gambia requested a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in 2012 to address economic challenges and support the implementation of its new poverty reduction strategy, the Programme for Accelerated Growth and Employment (PAGE). The request was based on a comprehensive staff report, a supplement to the Debt Sustainability Analysis, a statement by the IMF Staff Representative, a Press Release, and a statement by the Executive Director for The Gambia. The ECF arrangement was approved with an initial disbursement of SDR 9.33 million (30% of quota) and total access of SDR 18.66 million (60% of quota), reflecting the authorities' gradual approach to reform and the acute balance of payments needs caused by a severe drought.

Main Points

Economic Performance and Previous Fund Arrangement

• The Gambia's economy performed well during the previous ECF arrangement (2007–2011), with real GDP growth averaging around 5.5% and inflation kept low-to-moderate.
• However, the program experienced slippages due to fiscal overruns, especially in late 2010, which led to delays in completing the final review.
• The country received debt relief under the HIPC and MDRI initiatives, but remained at high risk of debt distress.
• Domestic debt rose to nearly 30% of GDP by end-2010, with interest costs consuming 22.5% of government revenues in 2011.

Recent Developments

• A severe regional drought in 2011–12 caused a major crop failure, affecting over 400,000 people (about 25% of the population) and threatening to prolong the crisis.
• Despite the challenges, the economy showed resilience, with real GDP growth estimated at 3.5% in 2011 and inflation remaining under control at 4.4%.
• Tourism receipts rebounded, contributing to a narrowing of the external current account deficit.
• The government implemented a strict cash-budgeting approach to limit net domestic borrowing (NDB) to 3.1% of GDP in 2011, slightly above the budget target.

Near- and Medium-Term Outlook

• Real GDP is projected to contract by 1.5–2% in 2012 due to the impact of the drought, but is expected to recover to 8–10% growth in 2013–14 if drought response is effective.
• The external current account deficit is expected to narrow to 13–14% of GDP by 2015, supported by renewed agricultural exports, tourism, and remittances.
• Inflation is expected to remain stable at around 5% annually, and the central bank aims to maintain international reserves at 5 months of imports.
• Risks include a heavy debt burden, global economic weakness, terms of trade shocks, contingent liabilities, and weather-related risks to agriculture.

Key Economic Challenges

• The Gambia faces a dual challenge of reducing the cost and risk of domestic debt and implementing the PAGE strategy under tight financing constraints.
• The program aims to reduce NDB to 0.5% of GDP annually by 2014, leading to a decline in domestic debt stock to 26.5% of GDP.
• Fiscal adjustment is supported by tax and revenue administration reforms, public financial management (PFM) improvements, and monetary policy independence.

Key Policies and Reforms

Immediate Relief for the Crop Failure

• The 2012 budget will be significantly impacted by the need for emergency imports of food, seeds, and fertilizers, estimated to cost USD 23–28 million (2.5–3% of GDP).
• The government will rely on domestic borrowing to cover these costs, but the Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) will provide foreign exchange and financing to support the relief efforts.
• The CBG will issue T-bills discounted at market rates to avoid fiscal dominance, which is seen as a bridge loan until donor assistance is received.

Fiscal Adjustment

• The government is committed to reducing NDB to 0.5% of GDP annually by 2014, with the goal of decreasing the domestic debt stock to 26.5% of GDP.
• A VAT will be introduced in January 2013 to broaden the tax base and increase revenues by 1–1.5% of GDP.
• Fuel price adjustments are expected to continue in 2012, reducing revenue losses from subsidies to around 0.5% of GDP.
• The government plans to phase out fuel subsidies and eliminate tax exemptions for embassies and businesses.

Structural Reforms

• Comprehensive tax policy and revenue administration reforms are underway to rebuild the revenue base and improve competitiveness.
• PFM reforms aim to enhance budget procedures, expenditure control, and transparency over the medium term.
• The CBG is to be freed from fiscal dominance to enable more consistent monetary policy.
• Institutional reforms are necessary to encourage private sector participation in financing the PAGE strategy.

Support for the PAGE Strategy

• The ECF arrangement is expected to catalyze support from development partners for the PAGE strategy.
• The government is seeking additional assistance from donors and private investment in infrastructure to fund the PAGE.
• The program includes provisions for donor assistance beyond budget support, including adjustments to NDB and international reserves targets.

Conclusion

The Gambia's request for a three-year ECF arrangement is aimed at addressing the immediate impact of the 2011–12 drought and supporting long-term fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. The staff report recommends approval of the request, as it is expected to contribute to macroeconomic stability and the implementation of the PAGE strategy. The program emphasizes gradual fiscal adjustment, improved tax administration, and the establishment of a more independent monetary policy framework.