年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Cameroon_Request_for_a_Three_128页_3mb

IMF Country Report No. 17/185: Cameroon

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Cameroon, providing SDR 483 million (about US$666.2 million or 175% of Cameroon’s quota). The program aims to restore fiscal and external sustainability and lay the foundation for private-sector-led growth.

Key Issues

Context

• Cameroon, the largest economy in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), faced economic shocks since 2014, including declining oil prices and increased security threats.
• The economy initially showed resilience due to greater diversification, but growth slowed in 2016.
• Fiscal and external buffers declined, and public debt increased rapidly.
• Pooled CEMAC reserves dropped from US$15.3 billion in 2014 to US$4.8 billion by 2016.

Program Objectives

• Restore fiscal and external sustainability.
• Unlock job-rich, private-sector-driven growth.
• Improve financial stability, financial inclusion, and economic diversification.

Program Pillars

1. Sustained fiscal consolidation: Strengthen fiscal and external buffers while protecting social spending and safety nets.
2. Structural fiscal reforms: Expand non-oil revenue, improve public investment efficiency, and reduce fiscal risks from contingent liabilities.
3. Private-sector-led diversification: Accelerate economic diversification, boost productivity, and enhance financial sector resilience.

Main Policy Recommendations

• Implement sustained fiscal adjustment by rationalizing government overhead costs, better prioritizing capital expenditure, and increasing non-oil revenue.
• Preserve social spending and scale up social safety nets.
• Enhance budget credibility and transparency and increase spending efficiency.
• Support private-sector growth by addressing non-performing loans, resolving insolvent banks, and removing administrative obstacles.

Key Documents and Releases

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF team for Executive Board consideration, completed on June 16, 2017, following discussions in Yaoundé (February–March 2017) and Washington (April 2017).
• Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA): Prepared by IMF and World Bank.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Highlighted the regional implications of Cameroon's program and the role of the CEMAC monetary arrangement.
• Documents to be released separately:
  • Letter of Intent
  • Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies
  • Technical Memorandum of Understanding

Program Modality

• Immediate disbursement: SDR 124.2 million (US$171.3 million).
• Remaining disbursements: Phased in over the three-year period, subject to semi-annual reviews.

Staff Appraisal

• The IMF staff supports the authorities' request for an ECF-supported program.
• The program is comprehensive, with strong commitment to fiscal correction and capacity development.
• Implementation risks are mitigated by the substantial fiscal effort and comprehensive strategy.

Key Economic Indicators (2014–2020)

Indicator	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
GDP at constant prices	5.8	4.7	4.0	4.6	5.0	5.1	5.1
Oil GDP at constant prices	28.1	-4.5	-2.4	-0.1	-3.4	-3.8	-3.8
Non-oil GDP at constant prices	4.9	5.1	4.3	4.8	5.3	5.5	5.5
GDP deflator	0.3	-1.2	0.9	1.0	1.3	1.7	1.7
Consumer prices (average)	2.7	0.9	0.7	1.1	1.4	2.0	2.0
Total revenue and grants	17.9	16.3	16.7	17.3	17.6	17.7	17.7
Oil revenue	3.3	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.3	2.2	2.2
Total expenditure	19.9	22.8	20.1	19.8	19.6	19.3	19.3
Overall fiscal balance (payment order basis)	-2.0	-6.5	-3.4	-2.5	-1.9	-1.6	-1.6
Stock of public debt	33.0	34.1	36.1	36.1	36.1	35.1	35.1
External debt	21.3	22.7	26.6	29.2	31.1	31.2	31.2

Main Challenges and Reforms

• Fiscal consolidation: Needed to reduce public debt and current account deficits.
• Public financial management (PFM): Weaknesses in planning, procurement, and execution of projects.
• Infrastructure gap: Large public investment in transport and energy to promote private sector growth.
• Social indicators: Lag behind peer countries, with high poverty rates and low health and education spending.
• Regional coordination: Crucial to rebuild CEMAC reserves and maintain monetary stability.

Infrastructure Projects and Impact

• The GESP (Growth and Employment Strategy Paper) and PLANUT (Three-Year Economic Emergency Plan) focus on large infrastructure to support private investment and growth.
• Major projects include:
  • Electricity and Hydro: 1,457.9 billion CFAF
  • Ports and airports: 553.0 billion CFAF
  • Road and rail: 499.8 billion CFAF
  • Telecommunications: 42.5 billion CFAF
  • Urban construction: 387.9 billion CFAF
• Expected outcomes:
  • Increase GDP growth by 0.5% in 2018 and 0.8% in 2019.
  • Improve productivity and economic diversification.

Regional and Political Considerations

• CEMAC coordination: Cameroon’s program supports regional stability and reserves rebuilding.
• Political challenges: Socio-political pressures before the 2018 elections could limit reform space.
• Refugee and food insecurity issues: Create pockets of fragility.
• Anglophone protests: Affect public order and policy implementation.

Conclusion

The IMF-supported program is designed to address fiscal and external imbalances, promote private-sector growth, and support regional stability. It emphasizes fiscal discipline, revenue diversification, and infrastructure development. The success of the program depends on effective implementation and regional coordination.