2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kyrgyz_Republic_Request_for_a_Three_119页_1mb

Kyrgyz Republic: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the Kyrgyz Republic's request for a new three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on April 8, 2015. The previous ECF arrangement had expired in July 2014, and the new program is aimed at supporting economic stability and growth in a challenging environment.

Main Objectives of the Program

The program aims to:

• Reduce macroeconomic vulnerabilities
• Achieve fiscal sustainability
• Support financial sector stability
• Maintain public debt at sustainable levels
• Encourage structural reforms to expand the economy's potential
• Unlock support from official lenders
• Provide safeguards against adverse shocks

The requested access is 75% of quota, equivalent to SDR 66.6 million.

Key Economic Developments (2012–2015)

Macroeconomic Performance

• Real GDP growth slowed to 3.6% in 2014, below potential (around 5%).
• Gold output declined to 4.6% due to lower ore quality.
• Non-gold GDP growth remained stable at about 4.6%.
• Inflation rose to double digits in 2014, driven by the depreciation of the som and drought.
• The current account deficit narrowed to 13.7% of GDP in 2014, but is expected to widen to 17% in 2015.
• Gross international reserves increased to US$3,093 million by 2017, equivalent to 4.6 months of imports.

Fiscal Performance

• The overall fiscal deficit improved from 4.2% of GDP in the 6th review to 3.7% in 2014.
• Public debt rose to 53% of GDP in 2014, projected to reach 61% by 2016.
• The deficit in 2015 is expected to widen to 7.6% of GDP, driven by increased public investment.

Financial Sector

• Credit growth reached 44% in 2014, with the ratio of loans to GDP at 21%.
• Dollarization increased significantly, with the share of foreign currency deposits rising to 55.6%.
• Nonperforming loans (NPLs) increased in absolute terms but the NPL ratio fell to 4.5%.

Outlook and Risks

Economic Outlook

• Growth is expected to reach 5% by 2017, supported by increased investment and exports.
• Inflation is projected to fall to 5% by 2017.
• Current account deficit is expected to decline to below 10% of GDP by 2017, aided by fiscal consolidation and structural reforms.

Key Risks

• Sustained slowdown in Russia could negatively impact growth and the balance of payments.
• Continued depreciation of the som may increase inflationary pressures.
• Additional investment projects could increase the risk of debt distress.
• Renewed issues with the Kumtor gold mine and further drop in gold prices may affect the budget.
• Political tensions before the parliamentary elections could delay reforms.
• Upside risks include improved economic ties with China and the materialization of the US$1 billion Russia-Kyrgyz development fund.

Authorities' Program

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal consolidation pauses in 2015 to accommodate external shocks and resumes in 2016–17.
• 2015 budget includes a slight deterioration in the operating balance to 5.3% of GDP due to lower revenues.
• Tax revenues remain flat, with non-tax revenues decreasing due to the closure of the Manas transit center.
• Current expenditures are expected to decline by 0.6 percentage points, while capital expenditures increase to 9.3% of GDP.

Structural Reforms

• The program emphasizes reforms in public financial management (PFM) and the banking sector.
• Banking sector resilience is to be improved through macro-prudential measures and a comprehensive Banking Code.
• Structural reforms are to be stepped up to enhance the economy's potential and competitiveness.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• Monetary policy will be tighter to control inflation.
• The exchange rate will remain flexible, with limited interventions to smooth volatility.
• The nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) appreciated by 3.5% in 2014, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated by 2.5%.

Debt Management

• A medium-term debt management strategy is to be developed to improve the efficiency and quality of public investment projects.
• The debt sustainability analysis highlights the need for careful management of public debt, which is expected to peak at 61% of GDP in 2016.

Staff Appraisal

• The staff supports the authorities' request for a new ECF arrangement.
• The Letter of Intent (LOI) and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) provide an adequate policy framework.
• Repayment capacity is considered adequate, despite the risks.
• Key risks include:
  • Further slowdown in Russia
  • Higher debt levels due to additional investment
  • Unresolved issues with Centerra Gold and Kumtor mine
  • Political tensions ahead of the parliamentary elections

Program Modalities

• The program will be implemented over a 36-month period.
• Fiscal effort is expected to increase in 2016–17, with a focus on tax policy and administration.
• The staff and authorities agree on a reform of the subsidy system, especially in the power sector, to reduce fiscal impact.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic's request for a new ECF arrangement is based on its National Strategy for Sustainable Development (2013–2017) and is designed to support inclusive growth and poverty reduction. The program addresses fiscal, monetary, financial sector, and structural reforms, with a focus on debt sustainability, exchange rate flexibility, and enhancing the business environment. Despite the challenges, the staff concludes that the repayment capacity is adequate and the program is well-aligned with IMF-supported objectives.