2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Guinea_First_Review_Under_the_Three_90页_983kb

Summary of Guinea's First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

Guinea is undergoing a recovery from a period of social unrest and military rule, with progress made in reducing macroeconomic imbalances and initiating major structural reforms. The country has been supported by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, approved in 2012, and is on track to reach the completion point under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative following the first review. The review includes a financing assurances review, a request for a waiver of nonobservance of a performance criterion, and a request for modification of performance criteria.

Main Points

Economic Recovery and Progress

• Macroeconomic stability: Economic activity has been strong, driven by agriculture and mining investment. Inflation has declined, and the exchange rate has stabilized.
• Reserve levels: Official reserves exceeded 4 months of imports by mid-2012, despite the absence of expected exceptional mining revenue.
• Fiscal performance: The budget was executed with some setbacks, but revenue exceeded program targets, and current expenditure was lower than expected. The basic fiscal balance deficit was reduced to 3.6% of GDP in the revised 2012 budget.

Political and Social Context

• Political transition: The process of completing the political transition remains incomplete, with parliamentary elections delayed.
• Social tensions: High inflation and lack of basic services continue to be sources of social tension, although progress is being made in security sector reform.

Structural Reforms

• Public financial management (PFM): Reforms are underway to strengthen revenue collection and fiscal oversight.
• Mining sector governance: A new mining code was adopted in 2011, and the governance structure for mining contracts and government assets is evolving with technical assistance and transparency measures.
• Agriculture and electricity: Reforms in these sectors aim to improve food security, increase domestic production, and enhance infrastructure.

Program Adjustments

• Performance criteria: Modifications to the performance criteria for end-December 2012 are requested due to the delay in receiving exceptional mining revenue.
• Waiver request: A waiver is requested for the non-observance of the performance criterion on the non-accumulation of external arrears, which were caused by technical problems with the central bank's international transfer system.
• Fiscal targets: The indicative target for priority sector spending was not met, but adjustments have been made in the revised budget.

2013 Program Objectives

• Macroeconomic stabilization: The 2013 program aims to consolidate macroeconomic stability, with real GDP growth projected at 5% and inflation targeting single digits.
• Budget management: The budget deficit is expected to be reduced to 1.4% of GDP in 2013, with the reintroduction of the automatic fuel price adjustment mechanism by January 2013.
• Investment and financing: Investment spending will decrease from 2012 levels due to lower domestic financing, but will remain above 2008–11 levels. The Special Investment Fund (SIF) is expected to finance nearly half of the domestic investment.

Key Information

• ECF Arrangement: Approved in 2012 for SDR 128.52 million (120% of quota), the three-year arrangement supports Guinea's economic recovery and structural reforms.
• Financing assurances: The authorities are requesting a waiver and modification of performance criteria due to technical issues and delayed revenue.
• Structural benchmarks: The program includes structural reform benchmarks, which were mostly met despite delays in some areas.
• Technical assistance: The World Bank and IMF are providing technical assistance to improve governance structures and implement reforms in the mining and financial sectors.
• External financing: The government is seeking to finance the Simandou iron ore project based on future project revenue, without guarantees that would burden the budget.

Document Structure

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF staff, outlines the economic developments, program performance, and recommendations for the first review.
• Press Release: Summarizes the Executive Board's discussion and approval of the review and waiver.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Provides an official perspective on the review and related policy decisions.
• Additional Documents: Include the HIPC Initiative Paper, Joint Staff Advisory Note, Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Progress Report, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

Appendices and Tables

• Appendix I: Letter of Intent, outlining Guinea's commitments under the ECF arrangement.
• Attachment I: Supplement to the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies.
• Attachment II: Technical Memorandum of Understanding.
• Tables: Provide detailed economic and financial indicators, performance criteria, and fiscal operations for the period 2008–2016.

Conclusion

Guinea's first review under the ECF arrangement confirms satisfactory progress in macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms. The country is on track to reach the HIPC completion point, and the program is being adjusted to reflect recent developments, particularly the delay in receiving exceptional mining revenue. The IMF recommends completing the first review, approving the waiver and modification of performance criteria, and continuing support for structural reforms.