年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sierra_Leone_Request_for_a_Three_100页_1mb
报告摘要
Summary of IMF Country Report No. 17/154 for Sierra Leone
Core Content
The IMF Executive Board approved a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Sierra Leone in the amount of SDR 161.778 million (US$224.2 million), representing 78% of the country's quota. This arrangement was aimed at supporting the country's economic development and addressing key macroeconomic challenges.
The first disbursement was SDR 39.166 million (US$54.3 million), with the remaining funds to be released in phases over the program duration, subject to semi-annual reviews. The program focuses on reducing inflation, increasing domestic revenues, and enhancing infrastructure and social spending.
Main Objectives and Policies
-
Short-term goals:
- Re-establish fiscal discipline.
- Increase foreign exchange reserves.
- Support critical spending to promote growth and social progress.
- Maintain macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability.
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Medium-term goals:
- Support structural reforms in revenue mobilization, public financial management (PFM), and financial sector reforms.
- Provide a framework for increased reserves and economic diversification.
- Promote private sector participation through improved governance and business environment.
Key Issues
- Economic Resilience: Sierra Leone showed resilience after facing twin shocks of iron ore export collapse and Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic.
- Challenges: Despite recovery, the economy still faces significant medium-term challenges, including low fiscal revenues, high inflation, and falling foreign exchange reserves.
- Structural Weaknesses: The country has a severe infrastructure gap, and fiscal and financial sector weaknesses hinder growth potential.
Program Summary
- Expected Growth: 7% in the medium-term.
- Inflation Target: Reduce to 12% by end-2017, 9.5% in 2018, and continue to narrow by 0.5% annually.
- Revenue Mobilization: Focus on eliminating tax and duty exemptions, and collecting royalties from mining companies.
- Social Safety Net: Expansion to provide relief to vulnerable groups.
- Infrastructure Spending: Increased to support inclusive growth.
Financing and Risk Mitigation
- The ECF is expected to support the Agenda for Prosperity (A4P) by providing financing space.
- Debt Sustainability: The risk of debt distress is moderate, and non-debt generating options should be considered for large projects like the new airport.
- Monetary Policy: Focus on lowering inflation to single digits, building reserves, and allowing exchange rate flexibility.
- PFM Reforms: Implementation of the PFM Act to improve efficiency and consolidate budget resources under the Treasury Single Account (TSA).
Key Documents
- Staff Report: Completed on May 18, 2017, following discussions with officials on April 21, 2017.
- Debt Sustainability Analysis: Prepared jointly by the IMF and World Bank.
- Statement by the Executive Director: Outlined the three broad fronts of the program: financing space, poverty reduction, and structural reform.
- Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies: To be released separately.
Financial and Economic Indicators (2013–2021)
| Indicators | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP at constant prices | 20.7 | 4.6 | -20.5 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 7.1 |
| GDP Excluding Iron ore | 5.6 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 6.6 |
| Iron ore production (millions metric tons) | 16.2 | 19.4 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 15.0 |
| Iron ore price (US$ per ton) | 135.4 | 97.4 | 56.1 | 52.2 | 58.6 | 45.2 | 81.2 | 66.1 | 53.5 |
| Consumer prices (end-of-period) | 8.5 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 17.4 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Consumer prices (average) | 9.8 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 16.9 | 10.6 | 9.2 |
| Current account balance (including official grants) | -20.5 | -20.1 | -17.5 | -18.3 | -19.9 | -17.7 | -21.8 | -18.9 | -18.9 |
| External public debt (including IMF) | 24.9 | 24.9 | 29.4 | 33.7 | 37.2 | 34.2 | 44.8 | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Per capita GDP (US$) | 805 | 803 | 673 | 638 | 577 | 623 | 594 | 615 | 639 |
Conclusion
The ECF program is a critical support mechanism for Sierra Leone to rebuild its economy, enhance fiscal sustainability, and promote long-term growth. The program is expected to catalyze external support, improve PFM, and increase domestic revenues. The success of the program will depend on strict implementation of revenue mobilization, expenditure control, and structural reforms.
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