2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Central_African_Republic_Request_for_a_Three_73页_1mb

Central African Republic: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content Overview

The Central African Republic (C.A.R.) requested a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) to support its medium-term economic program. The request was based on the need to consolidate macroeconomic stability, create fiscal space for increased spending on social programs and infrastructure, strengthen policy implementation capacity, and accelerate structural reforms to promote growth.

The program was discussed by an IMF staff team in Bangui from April 4 to 19, 2012, with the participation of representatives from the African Development Bank (AfDB), the European Union (EU), and the World Bank. The staff report was finalized on June 11, 2012, and the Executive Board discussed the request on June 25, 2012.

Key Objectives of the Program

• Consolidate macroeconomic stability by restoring fiscal discipline
• Create fiscal space for poverty reduction and investment in basic infrastructure
• Strengthen public financial management (PFM) and governance
• Enhance donor coordination and leverage technical assistance (TA) for capacity building
• Accelerate structural reforms to remove impediments to growth and improve financial intermediation

Main Challenges

• Fragile political and security environment following the 2010/11 elections and ongoing conflict
• Limited and volatile aid flows and low domestic resource mobilization
• Persistent external payment arrears and balance of payments problems
• Need for improved PFM and governance to attract financial support and ensure efficient public spending

Recent Developments

• Real GDP growth in 2011 was revised upward to 3.3 percent due to strong agricultural and mining activity
• Inflation accelerated in late 2011, reaching 7.8 percent in March 2012, but is expected to stabilize at 6.8 percent for the year
• Budget execution was broadly in line with the program, but lower-than-expected tax revenue was offset by exceptional nontax revenues
• External payment arrears at end-2011 totaled 22.9 percent of GDP, with 1.1 percent of GDP owed to bilateral creditors

External Payment Arrears (Text Table 1)

Source: C.A.R. authorities

Macroeconomic Framework (2012–15)

• Real GDP growth is projected to increase to 6 percent by 2014, driven by continued agricultural production, recovery in mining investment, and improved external demand
• Inflation is expected to stabilize at low levels after a surge in 2012
• Current account deficit is projected to decline gradually, but reserves coverage will remain weak, reaching only three months of imports by 2014
• The ECF-supported program aligns with the strategic priorities of the Second-Generation Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP II), which includes three pillars: security and peace consolidation, economic revival and regional integration, and human capital development

Medium-Term Structural Policies

• PFM reforms aim to establish a medium-term expenditure framework by 2014, including improving expenditure tracking, budget monitoring, and debt management
• Tax policy reform is planned to raise 1.4 percentage points of GDP in additional revenue by 2014, based on IMF and EU TA recommendations
• Donor coordination is being strengthened through the General Framework for Budget Support, with the EU and AfDB providing financial support for PFM
• Capacity building is a key focus, including training, software implementation (GESCO), and institutional strengthening
• Infrastructure development and resource management are prioritized to support growth and improve fiscal sustainability

Program Conditionality and Risks

• The program includes conditionality and monitoring mechanisms to ensure implementation of fiscal and structural reforms
• Access to IMF financing is based on the authorities' capacity to repay, with a focus on improving fiscal discipline and reducing external arrears
• Financing assurances include donor support for a "New Deal" and an integrated strategy for fragile states
• Risks include possible deterioration in the security and political environment and a weakening of the external environment, particularly in the euro area

Staff Appraisal

The IMF staff supports the request for a three-year ECF arrangement, as it is expected to:

• Stabilize the macroeconomic framework
• Support poverty reduction and progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
• Catalyze donor assistance for concessional financing
• Enhance the efficiency of public spending and improve fiscal sustainability

Key Projects and Initiatives

• Passendro Gold Mining Project: A 25-year mining license with total investment of US$270 million, supported by the IFC
• Petroleum exploration: Ongoing by a Chinese firm
• EITI compliance: C.A.R. attained EITI compliant status in March 2011 to improve extractive industry revenue transparency

Conclusion

The ECF arrangement is a critical tool for C.A.R. to address its long-standing economic and institutional challenges. It aims to provide financial support, catalyze donor assistance, and facilitate the implementation of structural reforms that will improve fiscal sustainability, governance, and economic growth. The program also seeks to strengthen public financial management and create a more transparent and efficient budget process.