2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bangladesh_Request_for_a_Three_83页_1mb

Summary of the Bangladesh Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF)

Core Content

The document outlines the Bangladesh Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), which was discussed and finalized by the IMF in 2012. It includes the Staff Report, Staff Statement, Press Release, and Statement by the Executive Director, among other supporting documents. The ECF is aimed at supporting a comprehensive reform program to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen the external position, and promote more inclusive growth.

Main Objectives of the Program

• Restoring macroeconomic stability
• Building an adequate reserve buffer
• Laying the foundation for higher, more inclusive growth

The program is designed to address fiscal and monetary pressures resulting from a negative terms-of-trade shock, rising oil prices, and accommodative policies. It also seeks to reform the financial sector, enhance tax and public financial management (PFM), and liberalize the trade and investment regime.

Key Components of the Program

1. Fiscal Policy and Reforms (Reform Pillar #1)

• The government has committed to moderate fiscal consolidation, aiming to reduce the overall fiscal deficit (excluding grants) to 3.5% of GDP by FY15.
• Subsidy-related costs are being contained through price adjustments and reforms.
• Tax reforms are central, with a new VAT law approved in March 2012 and expected to be submitted to Parliament by June 2012.
• PFM reforms include improving budget transparency, implementing uniform standards, and enhancing cash and debt management.
• Social spending and safety nets are safeguarded through better-targeted programs and reallocating resources from energy subsidies.

2. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Reforms (Reform Pillar #2)

• The program seeks to reduce aggregate demand pressures and stabilize inflation expectations.
• Exchange rate flexibility is encouraged to alleviate pressure on reserves.
• Monetary policy tightening is expected to continue, with a focus on liquidity management and interest rate alignment with market conditions.
• Bangladesh Bank (BB) is to reduce foreign exchange overdrafts to zero by June 2012 and improve financial reporting through automation.

3. Financial Sector Reforms (Reform Pillar #3)

• Bank governance and oversight are to be strengthened, with legal and prudential reforms.
• Supervisory capacity is being enhanced through risk-based supervision and improved enforcement.
• SOEs (State-Owned Enterprises), particularly in energy and fertilizer, are to be relieved of subsidy burdens.
• Basel II compliance is being addressed through increased retained earnings and capital strengthening.

4. Trade and Investment Reforms (Reform Pillar #4)

• Liberalizing the trade and investment regime is a long-term focus.
• The program aims to stimulate export-oriented investment and job creation, leveraging improved infrastructure and regional market proximity.
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to increase, supporting export growth and economic resilience.

Risks and Contingencies

• Fiscal and external risks include:

  • Limited scope for fiscal or monetary easing in the event of adverse real shocks.
  • Prolonged delays in price adjustments or unanticipated oil price shocks could worsen the fiscal and external positions.
  • Political instability ahead of the 2014 elections may slow reform progress.

• Implementation risks include:

  • Weak governance and capacity issues.
  • Past delays in reforms, such as tax and PFM reforms, under the PRGF program (2003-07).

Program Modalities

• The ECF arrangement allows for access to 120% of quota (SDR 639.96 million).
• Quantitative performance criteria (PCs) and indicative targets (ITs) are in place to monitor fiscal and monetary performance.
• Technical assistance (TA) and policy dialogue are emphasized to support reform implementation.
• Safety net reforms are part of the program to protect vulnerable households.

Program Timeline and Targets

• FY12:

  • Fiscal deficit (excluding grants) is targeted at 4.5% of GDP.
  • Net international reserves (NIR) are expected to reach 2.3 months of import cover.
  • Subsidy-related losses are capped at Tk 150 billion (1.6% of GDP).
  • A new VAT law is expected to be submitted to Parliament by June 2012.

• FY13:

  • Tax concessions and exemptions equivalent to 0.5% of GDP will be removed.
  • A Fiscal Report on Standards and Codes is to be completed.
  • Exchange rate flexibility and monetary transmission mechanisms are to be strengthened.
  • A VAT implementation plan is expected by September 2012.

• FY15:

  • GDP growth is projected to reach 7% through structural reforms.
  • Inflation is expected to fall to the single digits.
  • The current account is projected to be broadly in balance.
  • Reserves are to reach nearly three months of import cover.

Supporting Documents

• Letter of Intent
• Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP)
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding
• Annex I: Macroeconomic Adjustment with a Human Face: Public Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh

Conclusion

The ECF-supported program is a comprehensive reform initiative designed to address Bangladesh's macroeconomic challenges and support long-term growth. It emphasizes fiscal discipline, monetary stability, financial sector governance, and trade liberalization. The program includes a range of performance criteria and targets, along with technical assistance and policy dialogue, to ensure successful implementation and resilience against external shocks.