2021美中经济关系报告-美中贸易全国委员会-2121.1-28页_385kb

US-China Economic Relationship Summary

Core Content

The US-China economic relationship is a crucial and complex partnership that has significantly impacted the US economy, employment, and global competitiveness. This report, published in January 2021, analyzes the benefits and challenges of trade and investment between the two countries, particularly in the context of the trade war and the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Main Points

• Economic Integration Benefits: The US has benefited from its integration with China through trade and investment. In 2019, exports to China supported an estimated 1.2 million jobs in the US, while Chinese firms directly employed 197,000 people in the US.
• Trade and Investment Flows: US companies invested $105 billion in China in 2019, and Chinese firms invested $59 billion in the US. These flows have a direct impact on US employment, productivity, and economic growth.
• Productivity Gains: Trade with China has contributed to increased total factor productivity (TFP) in the US. This is due to competition, comparative advantage, and supply chain efficiency.
• Trade War Impact: The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has had a negative impact on the US economy, leading to job losses, reduced economic growth, and lower household incomes. It has also increased uncertainty and disrupted supply chains.
• Tariff Effects: Despite the phase one trade agreement, effective tariff rates remain at a multi-decade high. The trade war has not achieved its stated policy goals, such as reducing the trade deficit or boosting US manufacturing employment.
• Sectoral Impact: Certain sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, and energy, have been particularly affected by the trade war. Agricultural exports to China fell by 53% in 2018, while energy exports declined significantly due to retaliatory tariffs.
• Post-Pandemic Outlook: The pandemic caused a global economic downturn, with the US experiencing a 10.1% GDP decline in the first two quarters of 2020. China rebounded quickly, but the pandemic has not led to significant reshoring of supply chains. Instead, it has prompted a re-evaluation of global supply chain strategies.

Key Information

• Jobs Supported by Exports to China: 1.2 million jobs in 2019.
• Peak Jobs Lost Due to Trade War: 245,000 jobs.
• Jobs Created by Lowering Tariffs by 2025: 145,000 jobs.
• GDP Impact of Trade War: Estimated to cost 0.5% of US GDP over 2018–2019, equivalent to $108 billion.
• Household Income Loss: $88 billion lower over 2018–2019, or around $675 per household.
• Effective Tariff Rates: US imports from China faced an effective tariff rate of 21% by the end of 2019, while Chinese imports to the US faced 20.9%.
• Trade Deficit: Despite a narrowing of the US-China trade deficit in 2019, the overall US trade deficit remained largely unchanged due to increased deficits with other countries.
• Future Projections: China is expected to drive around one-third of global GDP growth over the next decade. Maintaining market access to China is essential for US global competitiveness.

Alternative Scenarios

• Trade War De-escalation: If both countries scale back average tariff rates to around 12%, the US economy could see an additional $160 billion in real GDP and 145,000 more jobs by 2025.
• Trade War Escalation: If tensions escalate and significant decoupling occurs, the US economy could lose $1.6 trillion in real GDP over five years and 732,000 jobs by 2022, with long-term effects on GDP and productivity.

Conclusion

Maintaining a constructive and open economic relationship with China is vital for the US economy. Trade restrictions and protectionist policies have failed to achieve their intended goals and have instead hurt US economic growth, employment, and competitiveness. A more nuanced and principled trade policy will be essential for managing the US-China relationship and supporting American prosperity in the coming years.