20180806-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_38页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content
This document provides a detailed market update for the week of 06 August 2018, covering key financial and market developments in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes sector updates, company results, stock recommendations, key indices, corporate events, and valuation analysis.
Main Points by Region
Hong Kong
- Property Sector: The CCL Index rose 0.5% week-on-week, reaching a new historical high, while the HSP Index fell 5.1% due to intensified US-China trade tensions.
- Primary Market: Active with 372 transactions recorded, with SHKP leading the sales of 328 units in the Park YOHO Milano project.
- Secondary Market: Transactions remained flat, with only six recorded in the 10 major estates.
- Market Outlook: The divergence between property prices and share prices persists, with share prices trading at a NAV discount of 40%. The sector is maintained at MARKET WEIGHT.
Indonesia
- Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ):
- 2Q18 earnings rose 65% yoy, driven by higher CPO sales volume (+34% yoy) and improved margins.
- Third-party FFB contribution increased to nearly 40% of total processed FFB.
- Target Price: Rp12,200 (down from previous Rp14,000), based on 13x average 2018-19F PE.
- Recommendation: Maintain HOLD.
- Key Financials: Net profit for 2Q18 was Rp428b, with a slight earnings forecast adjustment for 2018-19F.
- Replanting Plan: 1,156ha replanted in 1H18, with more replanting expected in 2H18 due to favorable weather conditions.
Malaysia
- Alpha Picks: Added MRCB, Bumi Armada, CMS, Gabungan AQRS, Inari, and VS Industry to August's picks, delivering a simple average gain of 11.3% in July.
- Gamuda (GAM MK):
- Expected to accept the government's revised takeover offer of RM2.55b.
- Target Price: RM4.36.
- Recommendation: BUY.
- Sime Darby Plantation (SDPL MK):
- Recommendation: SELL.
- Target Price: RM4.30.
- Update: Adjusted net profit forecasts due to the change in FYE to December from June.
Key Indices Performance
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 25462.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 3.0 |
| S&P 500 | 2840.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 6.2 |
| FTSE 100 | 7659.1 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | -0.4 |
| AS30 | 6326.4 | -0.0 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 2.6 |
| CSI 300 | 3315.3 | -1.7 | -5.8 | -1.5 | -17.8 |
| FSSTI | 3265.7 | -0.6 | -1.8 | 2.3 | -4.0 |
| HSCEI | 10693.8 | -0.4 | -3.2 | 0.7 | -8.7 |
| HSI | 27676.3 | -0.1 | -3.9 | -2.3 | -7.5 |
| JCI | 6007.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 5.5 | -5.5 |
| KLCI | 1780.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 7.0 | -0.9 |
| KOSPI | 2287.7 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | -7.3 |
| Nikkei 225 | 22525.2 | 0.1 | -0.8 | 3.4 | -1.1 |
| SET | 1712.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 6.0 | -2.4 |
| TWSE | 11012.4 | 0.8 | -0.6 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| BDI | 1773 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 9.3 | 29.8 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2176 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -6.2 | -9.0 |
| Brent Crude (US$/bbl) | 73 | -0.1 | -2.4 | -5.1 | 9.4 |
Top Picks and Sell Recommendations
BUY
- Baoshan Iron & Steel: Target Price CH 9.53, Potential Upside 15.0%
- Gudang Garam: Target Price IJ 85,000, Potential Upside 13.3%
- PP Persero: Target Price IJ 3,700, Potential Upside 89.7%
- Bumi Armada: Target Price MK 1.06, Potential Upside 49.3%
- OCBC: Target Price SP 13.52, Potential Upside 19.1%
- SingTel: Target Price SP 4.22, Potential Upside 32.7%
- Siam Cement: Target Price TB 530, Potential Upside 17.3%
SELL
- Sime Darby Plantation: Target Price RM4.30, Potential Downside 14.0%
Corporate Events
- Group Luncheon with OCK Group: 13 Aug, Kuala Lumpur
- Analyst Presentation on Greater China 2H18 Strategy and Outlook: 13 Aug, Singapore; 15 Aug, Kuala Lumpur; 20 Aug, Bangkok
- Group Meeting with YiChang HEC ChangJiang Pharmaceutical: 28 Aug, Hong Kong
- UOB Kay Hian Asian Gems Conference: 9 Oct, Singapore
- UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional 1H2019 Strategy Conference: 13 Nov, Kuala Lumpur
Upcoming Project Launches (Hong Kong)
| Project | Location | Developer | No. of Units | Expected Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artlane | Sai Ying Pun | Henderson | 500 | 2H18 |
| Lepont | Tuen Mun | Vanke Property | 1,154 | 2H18 |
| Reach Summit | Yuen Long | Henderson/NWD | 504 | 2H18 |
| Long Ping South | Yuen Long | ChinaChem | 720 | 2H18 |
| 1 Kowloon Road | Sham Shui Po | Sino Land/URA | 100 | 2H18 |
| The Camel | Tuen Mun | Wing Tai | 178 | 2H18 |
Upcoming Government Land Sale by Tender
| Lot Number | Location | Use | Site Area (ha) | Tender Open Date | Tender Close Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKIL 6593 | Ko Chiu Road, Yau Tong, Kowloon | Residential | 0.3765 | 15 Jun 2018 | 10 Aug 2018 |
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP Growth (% yoy) | 2017 | 2018F | 2019F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Euro Zone | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Japan | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Singapore | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Malaysia | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Thailand | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Indonesia | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2,783 | 2,783 | 2,400 | 2,500 |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 55.00 | 55.00 | 67.00 | 66.50 |
Market Weight and Recommendations
- Maintained MARKET WEIGHT.
- Top Recommendations: NWD and SHKP are recommended as BUY.
Analyst Contact
- Shaun Tan: +852 2236 6798, shaun.tan@uobkayhian.com.hk
Summary of Key Financials for Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ)
- 2Q18 Core Net Profit: Rp428b (+65% yoy)
- 1H18 Core Net Profit: Rp719b (-28% yoy)
- Earnings Forecast Adjustments: -6% and -7% for 2018-19F
- Target Price: Rp12,200
- Entry Price: Rp11,000
- Valuation: Based on 13x 2018-19F average PE (-1SD of 5-year mean PE)
Company Description
- Astra Agro Lestari is a palm oil plantation company with interests in both upstream and downstream businesses.
- It manages nearly 300,000 hectares of palm oil estates in Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi.
Conclusion
The report highlights the active primary market in Hong Kong, strong earnings for Astra Agro Lestari in Indonesia, and key corporate events across the region. Valuation metrics and financial performance are presented with a focus on BUY and HOLD recommendations, while also noting potential risks and the need for policy changes in the property sector.
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