20150320-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_38页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of financial results and market analysis for several companies in Asia, focusing on China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. It includes key financial metrics, stock performance, analyst recommendations, and potential catalysts for share price movements. Additionally, it outlines key assumptions and valuation metrics for various markets and companies.

Main Points by Region

China

China Mobile (941 HK)
- 4Q14 Results: Weak revenue but better-than-expected profit due to effective cost-cutting.
- Performance: Net profit was 3.2% above expectations, while service revenue was 11.1% below.
- Key Factors: Shift from voice to data services, use of soft promotions over handset subsidies, and strong 4G user growth.
- Future Outlook: Continued improvement in earnings and cash flow expected due to declining capex and growing 4G subscriptions.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$118.00.
- Catalysts: Strong 4G user acquisitions and improved 1Q15 results.
China Power International Devt (2380 HK)
- 2014 Results: Net profit increased by 20.8% yoy, in line with consensus.
- Performance: Strong growth from thermal and hydro power segments, driven by coal cost savings and improved water conditions.
- Key Factors: Disposal loss affected results, but hydro power EBIT rose by 6.6% yoy.
- Future Outlook: Aggressive expansion to 30GW by 2020, expected to drive earnings growth. Potential asset injection from parent company.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$5.50.
- Catalysts: Parent company's asset injection announcement.

Hong Kong

Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK)
- 4Q14 Results: In line with expectations.
- Performance: Near-term sentiment depends on gaming table allocation outcomes.
- Recommendation: HOLD with a target price of HK$33.60.
Li & Fung (494 HK)
- 2014 Results: No surprises.
- Performance: Expect gradual recovery in sales growth in 2015, though still challenging.
- Recommendation: HOLD with a target price of HK$8.65.

Indonesia

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)
- 2014 Results: Net profit of Rp5.3t, up 5% yoy and 29% qoq, in line with forecasts.
- Performance: Expect sales volume to grow 6-8% yoy in 2015 despite flat ASP.
- Recommendation: BUY with a target price of Rp26,900.

Malaysia

EcoWorld Development (ECW MK)
- 1QFY15 Results: Delayed recognition of billings due to timing issues.
- Performance: Expect stronger earnings in the following quarters.
- Recommendation: Downgraded to HOLD with a target price of RM1.90.

Thailand

Khon Kaen Sugar Industry (KSL TB)
- 1QFY15 Results: Net profit dropped 7% yoy but surged 86% qoq.
- Performance: Downgraded to SELL.
- Recommendation: SELL with a target price of Bt4.75.

Key Indices and Assumptions

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17959.0	(0.6)	0.4	(0.1)	0.8
S&P 500	2089.3	(0.5)	1.1	(0.4)	1.5
FTSE 100	6962.3	0.2	3.0	1.1	6.0
AS30	5912.5	1.8	1.7	1.1	9.7
CSI 300	3839.7	(0.2)	6.9	9.0	8.7
FSSTI	3386.2	0.7	0.4	(1.4)	0.6
HSCEI	12122.2	1.2	4.8	0.5	1.1
HSI	24468.9	1.4	2.8	(1.5)	3.7
JCI	5453.9	0.8	0.3	1.0	4.3
KLCI	1809.1	0.6	1.2	0.1	2.7
KOSPI	2037.9	0.5	3.4	3.9	6.4
Nikkei 225	19476.6	(0.3)	2.6	6.2	11.6
SET	1532.1	0.0	(0.8)	(4.4)	2.3
TWSE	9736.7	0.9	1.5	2.2	4.6
BDI	584	2.3	4.3	14.3	(25.3)
CPO (RM/mt)	2173	(0.8)	(3.5)	(5.2)	(5.4)
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl)	44	(0.5)	(2.4)	(13.1)	(17.9)

Key Assumptions

Metric	2014	2015F	2016F
GDP (% yoy)	3.2	3.7	3.9
Brent (US$/bbl)	99.45	65	70
CPO (US$/mt)	722	765	788
BDI	1,101	1,300	1,400

Top Picks

Company	Ticker	Current Price (Icy)	Target Price (Icy)	Potential Upside
Sunac China	1918 HK	6.46	9.29	43.8%
ICBC	1398 HK	5.70	6.80	19.3%
Bank Negara	BBNI LJ	7,000.00	7,500.00	7.1%
Genling Msia	GENM MK	4.20	4.47	6.4%
DBS	DBS SP	19.96	23.55	18.0%
Pacific	PACRA SP	0.61	1.00	65.3%
Krong Thai	KTB TB	23.00	29.00	26.1%
Sino Thai Engr	STEC TB	21.20	30.25	42.7%

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Start Date	End Date
Indofood Suitses Makmur Roadshow	Singapore	27 Mar	27 Mar
Sunway Berhad Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	31 Mar	31 Mar
Singamas Container Holdings	Singapore	31 Mar	31 Mar
Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	1 Apr	1 Apr
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings	Taipei	30 Mar	31 Mar
Corporate Roadshow	Singapore	2 Apr	2 Apr
Corporate Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	3 Apr	3 Apr

Key Metrics for China Mobile

Metric	2014	2015F	2016F	2017F
EBITDA Margin (%)	36.4	37.0	37.3	38.0
Pre-tax Margin (%)	22.2	22.0	22.4	23.8
Net Margin (%)	17.0	16.9	17.2	18.3
ROA (%)	8.9	8.6	9.0	9.3
ROE (%)	13.3	12.9	13.3	13.3
Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity (%)	197.3	179.7	162.6	145.0

Key Metrics for China Power International Devt

Metric	2014	2015F	2016F	2017F
EBITDA Margin (%)	29.0	31.0	32.0	33.0
Pre-tax Margin (%)	21.0	22.0	22.0	22.0
Net Margin (%)	13.3	13.3	13.3	14.0
ROE (%)	13.7	13.6	13.7	14.2
Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity (%)	197.3	179.7	162.6	145.0

Summary of Key Insights

China Mobile continues to benefit from the shift to data services and effective cost-cutting, with a strong 4G user base expected to drive ARPU and earnings growth.
China Power International Devt reported strong performance in 2014, driven by thermal and hydro segments, and is expected to maintain solid growth with capacity expansion and potential asset injection.
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa performed in line with forecasts and is expected to see continued sales growth in 2015.
EcoWorld Development had a delayed recognition of billings in 1QFY15 but is expected to show stronger earnings in the following quarters.
Khon Kaen Sugar Industry had a strong quarterly performance but was downgraded to SELL.
The document outlines the expected GDP growth for various regions and key financial metrics like EBITDA, net profit, and P/E ratios.
Analysts maintain BUY for several stocks, including China Mobile and China Power International, due to their strong fundamentals and growth potential.