2019年-WEF世界经济论坛_The_Global_Risks_Report_2019_114页_15mb

Summary of The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition is published by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Marsh & McLennan Companies and Zurich Insurance Group. It presents a comprehensive analysis of the most significant global risks and trends, emphasizing the growing complexity and interconnectedness of these challenges. The report includes insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which gathered input from around 1,000 members of the Forum's multistakeholder communities.

Main Risks and Trends

Top 10 Risks by Likelihood

1. Extreme weather events
2. Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
3. Natural disasters
4. Data fraud or theft
5. Cyber-attacks
6. Man-made environmental disasters
7. Large-scale involuntary migration
8. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
9. Water crises
10. Asset bubbles in a major economy

Top 10 Risks by Impact

1. Weapons of mass destruction
2. Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
3. Extreme weather events
4. Natural disasters
5. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
6. Critical information infrastructure breakdown
7. Cyber-attacks
8. Spread of infectious diseases
9. Water crises
10. Infectious diseases

Risk Categories

• Economic
• Environmental
• Geopolitical
• Societal
• Technological

Key Findings

• Global risks are intensifying, but there is a lack of collective will to address them.
• State-centred politics is becoming more prominent, with a focus on "taking back control" domestically and internationally.
• Macroeconomic risks have increased, with global growth slowing and China's growth rate declining.
• The global debt burden has risen significantly, reaching 225% of GDP.
• Inequality remains a critical issue, with rising within-country disparities and falling public wealth in many developed nations.
• Environmental risks are increasingly dominant, with climate change and biodiversity loss being top concerns.
• Cybersecurity threats and data fraud are growing, with fake news and identity theft seen as major risks.
• Biological risks are also rising due to technological advancements and changing lifestyles, increasing the likelihood of outbreaks and man-made biological threats.
• Urbanization and climate change are making more people vulnerable to rising sea levels, requiring adaptive strategies such as engineering, nature-based defences, and relocation.
• Political polarization and weak governance are undermining social cohesion and trust, which in turn affects economic performance.

Emerging Challenges

• The report highlights the need for a multistakeholder approach to address shared global challenges.
• Technological and environmental transformations are reshaping the global risks landscape, with quantum computing, affective computing, and the erosion of human rights among the topics explored in the Future Shocks section.
• Systemic risks are building, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation.
• Mental health issues are on the rise, with 700 million people globally affected, reflecting the psychological strain caused by uncertainty and lack of control.

Strategic Partners and Advisers

• Strategic Partners: Marsh & McLennan Companies, Zurich Insurance Group
• Academic Advisers: National University of Singapore, Oxford Martin School, Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center

Methodology

• The Global Risks Perception Survey assesses risks on a scale of 1 to 5 for both likelihood and impact.
• The report includes interactive data platforms and is available at http://wef.ch/risks2019.
• Appendices provide detailed descriptions of global risks and trends, as well as methodology and survey results.

Conclusion

The Global Risks Report 2019 underscores the interconnected nature of global risks and the urgent need for collaboration. It warns of the dangers of sleepwalking into crises and calls for new approaches to globalization that address insecurity, inequality, and environmental fragility. The report also emphasizes the importance of social and psychological well-being in the face of global uncertainties.