20231204-金源期货-镍周报_消息助益情绪改善_镍价企稳_6页_778kb

Nickel Market Summary

Overview

The nickel market shows a stabilized price due to combined macroeconomic support and supply-demand dynamics. Key demand sustainers include reduced nickel press in some iron plants and a slight improvement in stainless steel consumption, but overall fundamentals limit upside potential.

Supply and Demand

Nickel supply remains high, with nickel mines and iron prices showing cost support. Nickel mine 15%CIF均价持平 at $54 per wet ton, and nickel iron prices fell, indicating tight supply. Domestic inventory increase and limited transactions reflect strong cost underpins. Stainless steel consumption saw a slight rebound, easing pressure on raw material procurement.

Macroeconomic Factors

Macroeconomic signs, such as cooling US inflation and rising jobless claims, bolster expectations for early Federal Reserve rate cuts, easing nickel's macro pressure. However, commodity price volatility from sources like Indonesia could encourage short covering, supporting recent price stabilizations.

Price Outlook

For the coming week, Shanghai nickel is expected to range between ¥126,000 and ¥135,000 per ton, while London nickel is projected between $16,300 and $17,300 per ton.

Risk Factors

Potential shifts in Fed policy could increase interest rate expectations, affecting fundamentals. Supply disruptions or geopolitical events also pose risks.

Strategy and Risks

Hold strategy is recommended short-term, with risks tied to macro uncertainties and supply events.