20230323-招银国际-九毛九-09922.HK-Post_pandemic_margin_recovery_is_the_key_10页_1mb

报告摘要

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) 总结

核心内容

Jiumaojiu is a leading player in the Greater China catering sector, with a focus on its Tai Er and Song Hotpot brands. The company has experienced a significant drop in sales and net profit during FY22 due to the pandemic and a strategic reduction in average selling price (ASP). However, the firm is optimistic about the post-pandemic recovery, especially for Tai Er, and has maintained a BUY rating with an updated target price.

主要观点

Sales and Profit Recovery: Jiumaojiu's sales are expected to recover strongly in FY23E and FY24E, with Tai Er showing a significant improvement in sales and margin recovery.
Cost Management: The company has implemented several cost-cutting measures in FY21-22, including supply chain improvements, rental cost control, and efficient staffing, which have positively impacted its unit economics.
ASP and GP Margin: With offline catering demand increasing, there is potential for Tai Er to raise its ASP, which should improve its gross profit (GP) margin.
Store Expansion: Jiumaojiu plans to open about 120 stores in FY23E, including 15 overseas stores. Sales per store in Singapore and Malaysia are expected to be significantly higher than in mainland China.
Song Hotpot Expansion: Song Hotpot is set to expand with a focus on quality, aiming to open 25 new stores in FY23E. Its performance is improving, especially in Beijing and Shanghai.

关键信息

财务表现

FY22结果：销售额同比下降4%，净亏损达49百万港元，与盈利预警一致。
FY23E预期：销售额预计增长56.6%，经营利润预计达到988百万港元，净盈利预计达673.2百万港元。
FY24E预期：销售额预计增长29%，经营利润预计达到1,381百万港元，净盈利预计达963.5百万港元。
EPS预测：FY23E预计为41.93分，FY24E为60.01分，FY25E为79.90分。
盈利预测调整：公司对FY23E和FY24E的盈利预测进行了下调，但FY25E的预测保持不变。

估值分析

当前估值：根据最新预测，公司P/E为40.2倍，P/B为6.1倍。
估值对比：在同行业中，Jiumaojiu的估值相对较高，因此不是该领域的首选。
目标价：公司目标价调整为HK$23.52，基于35倍FY24E P/E。
盈利预测对比：与市场共识相比，CMBIGM的盈利预测更为乐观，特别是在GP和EBIT margin方面。

业务板块

Tai Er：预计在FY23E实现销售和毛利率的显著恢复，门店数量预计增长至555家。
Song Hotpot：品牌表现持续改善，尤其是在北京和上海，计划在FY23E新增25家门店。
其他品牌：其他品牌销售额预计增长，但增长幅度相对较低。

市场表现

股价表现：过去12个月股价上涨22.6%，但目前市价为HK$18.88，低于目标价。
市场占有率：公司市场占有率较高，但需关注其相对较高的估值。

估值与预测

P/E：FY23E为40.2倍，FY24E为28.1倍，FY25E为21.1倍。
P/B：FY23E为6.1倍，FY24E为4.9倍，FY25E为3.8倍。
ROE：FY23E为16.6%，FY24E为19.3%，FY25E为20.2%。
目标价调整：基于更好的GP margin和运营杠杆，目标价上调至HK$23.52。

假设与展望

销售增长：预计FY23E和FY24E的总销售额分别增长56.6%和29%。
毛利率提升：通过成本控制和运营效率提升，毛利率有望进一步改善。
门店扩张：预计在FY23E新增约120家门店，其中15家为海外门店。
市场趋势：线下餐饮需求持续增强，有利于公司业务增长。

总结

Jiumaojiu is showing signs of strong recovery post-pandemic, with a focus on Tai Er and Song Hotpot. The company has implemented effective cost-cutting measures and is expected to see improvements in sales and margins. Despite its higher valuation compared to peers, the BUY rating is maintained due to its solid recovery and potential for further growth. The updated target price reflects the company's improved financial outlook and the expected performance of its key brands.

展开完整摘要