20170428-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_43页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 28 April 2017

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the financial performance and market outlook for various companies and regions, with a focus on China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It includes company-specific results, key economic indicators, valuation metrics, and investment recommendations.

Main Points

China

Industrial Enterprises: Performance started to moderate in March, with a slowdown in profit growth due to a higher base from Mar 2016 and rising input costs affecting downstream sectors.
Key Sectors Profit Growth:
- Oil and Gas: Negative growth in 2016, with data not available for 1Q17 and 2M17.
- Coal Mining: Positive growth in 2016, with data not available for 1Q17 and 2M17.
- Ferrous Metal Mining: 88.2% growth in 1Q17, 80.5% in 2M17.
- Ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling: 358.9% growth in 1Q17, 2109.8% in 2M17.
- Railway and Aerospace Equipment: 1.2% growth in 1Q17, -10.9% in 2M17.
- Automobile: 19% growth in 1Q17, 19.2% in 2M17.
- Pharmaceutics: 13.4% growth in 1Q17, 15.3% in 2M17.
- Chemicals: 50.7% growth in 1Q17, 65.9% in 2M17.
- Electrical and Machinery: 4.7% growth in 1Q17, 0.9% in 2M17.
- Computer and Electronics: 6.9% growth in 1Q17, 20.5% in 2M17.

Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK)

1Q17 Performance: Net profit rose 41% yoy, exceeding expectations. Revenue increased by 10%, and costs decreased, leading to higher operating margins.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY, with a target price of HK$12.00.
Valuation: At 9.6x 2017F EV/EBITDA, a 13% discount to Chinese airport peers. Fair value at 19x 2017F PE.
Key Financials:
- 1Q17 net profit: Rmb1.7t, up 41.2% yoy.
- Operating profit: Rmb3.688t, up 31.7% yoy.
- EBITDA: Rmb5.24t, up 18.0% yoy.
Operating Assumptions:
- Aeronautical revenue growth: 8.2% for 2017F.
- Non-aeronautical revenue growth: 13.7% for 2017F.
- Pax movements: 5.6% for 2017F.
Stock Catalysts: Upward revision in duty-free revenue sharing rate and higher pax throughput growth.

China Merchants Bank (3968 HK)

1Q17 Performance: Net interest margin (NIM) and asset quality stabilized.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY, with a target price of HK$22.55.
Valuation: At HK$20.50, the stock is undervalued compared to its target.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

1Q17 Performance: Net profit fell 18% yoy. Outlook remains challenging.
Recommendation: SELL, with a target price of HK$6.00.

MGM China (2282 HK)

1Q17 Performance: Results beat expectations due to the returning mass market.
Recommendation: HOLD, with a target price of HK$15.00.

Indonesia

Wijaya Karya (WIIKA IJ):
- 1Q17 Performance: Strong results even without HSR project contribution.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY, with a target price of Rp3,100.

Malaysia

Maxis (MAXIS MK):
- 1Q17 Performance: Results within expectations, with higher EBITDA margins.
- Recommendation: HOLD, with a target price of RM5.80.
Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK):
- 2QFY17 Performance: EBITDA within expectations. Decline in foreign shareholding potentially due to ESG criteria.
- Recommendation: BUY, with a target price of RM16.00.
Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK):
- 1Q17 Performance: Profits missed estimates due to high fuel costs and tax rate. Target price cut due to lower guidance for container volume growth.
- Recommendation: HOLD, with a target price of RM3.80.

Singapore

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP):
- 1Q17 Performance: Core net loss of S$7.3m, possibly due to delays on Kaombo floaters.
- Recommendation: SELL, with a target price of S$1.43.
Duty Free International (DFIL SP):
- 4QFY17 Performance: Persistent slowdown in Thailand.
- Recommendation: BUY, with a target price of S$0.49.

Thailand

Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB):
- 1Q17 Performance: Results in line with estimates but higher than consensus by 16%.
- Recommendation: BUY, with a target price of Bt210.00.
PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP TB):
- 1Q17 Performance: Fifth consecutive quarter of earnings surprise. Expected to win two M&As and the Bongkot/Erawan gas fields bid.
- Recommendation: BUY, with a target price of Bt111.00.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	20981.3	0.0	2.0	1.4	6.2
S&P 500	2388.8	0.1	1.4	1.3	6.7
FTSE 100	7237.2	-0.7	1.7	-1.4	1.3
AS30	5944.4	0.1	1.8	1.4	3.9
CSI 300	3446.7	0.0	-0.4	-0.7	4.1
FSSTI	3171.4	-0.1	1.1	0.4	10.1
HSCEI	10261.3	-0.5	2.0	-1.6	9.2
HSI	24698.5	0.5	2.7	1.4	12.3
JCI	5707.0	-0.3	1.8	3.0	7.7
KLCI	1767.9	-0.1	1.5	0.8	7.7
KOSPI	2209.5	0.1	2.8	2.1	9.0
Nikkei 225	19251.9	-0.2	4.5	0.3	0.7
SET	1566.8	-0.0	0.0	-0.6	1.5
TWSE	9860.6	0.0	2.4	-0.2	6.6
BDI	1134	-1.1	-8.8	-11.5	18.0
CPO (RM/mt)	2643	1.3	1.2	-9.4	-17.4
Brent Crude	51	-0.7	-2.9	1.4	-9.5

Top Picks

BUY

Alibaba (BABA US): Current price HK$115.43, target HK$130.00, potential upside 12.6%.
Beijing Ent. Water (371 HK): Current price HK$6.00, target HK$7.60, potential upside 26.7%.
Indosat (ISAT IJ): Current price Rp7,150.00, target Rp7,900.00, potential upside 10.5%.
Tiga Pilar (AISA IJ): Current price Rp2,180.00, target Rp2,550.00, potential upside 17.0%.
V.S. Industry (VSI MK): Current price RM1.97, target RM2.20, potential upside 11.7%.
OCBC (OCBC SP): Current price HK$9.74, target HK$10.75, potential upside 10.4%.
SingTel (ST SP): Current price HK$3.75, target HK$4.48, potential upside 19.5%.
Bangkok Dusit (BDMS TB): Current price Bt20.40, target Bt27.00, potential upside 32.4%.
Siam Cement (SCC TB): Current price Bt544.00, target Bt600.00, potential upside 10.3%.

SELL

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Current price HK$8.93, target HK$6.00, potential downside 32.8%.
MGM China (2282 HK): Current price HK$16.98, target HK$13.20, potential downside 22.3%.
Hartalega (HART MK): Current price HK$4.95, target HK$4.07, potential downside 17.8%.

Key Assumptions

Region	GDP (yoy) 2016	GDP (yoy) 2017F	GDP (yoy) 2018F
US	1.6	2.7	2.5
Euro Zone	1.7	1.6	1.5
Japan	1.0	0.9	1.2
Singapore	2.0	2.4	2.8
Malaysia	4.2	4.5	4.7
Thailand	3.2	3.3	3.1
Indonesia	5.0	5.2	5.5
Hong Kong	1.9	2.0	2.0
China	6.7	6.3	6.3
Brent (Average)	45	55	60
CPO	2,653	2,600	2,500

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Begin	Close
Indonesia Strategy	Kuala Lumpur	27 Apr	28 Apr
Group Luncheon with Hopefluent	Hong Kong	27 Apr	27 Apr
Group Luncheon with CAT Telecom	Thailand	28 Apr	28 Apr
Roadshow with Meidong Auto Holdings	UK	4 May	5 May
Tea Session with Health Mgm Int'l	Singapore	12 May	12 May
Analyst Presentation on Malaysia Outlook and Strategy and Regional Gaming	Hong Kong	17 May	17 May
Roadshow with Singtel	Canada	26 May	26 May
Roadshow with PT Siloam Int'l Hospital	Canada	5 Jun	16 Jun
Luncheon with United Overseas Bank	Singapore	3 Jul	3 Jul
Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation	US/Canada	5 Sep	12 Sep

Analysts

Chaoping Zhu
- +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822
- chaoping@uobkayhian.com
K Ajith
- +65 6590 6627
- ajith@uobkayhian.com
Sophie Leong
- +65 6590 6621
- sophieleong@uobkayhian.com
Sophie Yu
- +852 2826 1392
- sophie.yu@uobkayhian.com.hk

Summary

China's industrial enterprises showed a moderation in performance in March, with slowing profit growth and higher input costs affecting downstream sectors.
Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK) reported strong 1Q17 results, with net profit up 41% yoy and a BUY recommendation.
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK) saw stabilized NIM and asset quality, with a BUY recommendation.
Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) faced a 18% yoy drop in net profit, leading to a SELL recommendation.
Indonesia's Wijaya Karya (WIIKA IJ) had strong results without HSR project contribution, with a BUY recommendation.
Malaysia's Maxis (MAXIS MK) and Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK) had mixed results, with Maxis at HOLD and TNB at BUY.
Singapore's Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) reported a core net loss, with a SELL recommendation.
Thailand's Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP TB) showed positive performance, with BUY recommendations.
Key indices showed mixed performance, with some positive and negative growth trends.
Top picks included several BUY and SELL recommendations across different regions.
Corporate events scheduled for the coming weeks include strategy sessions, roadshows, and analyst presentations.