20130809-DBS_Group-Positives_yet_to_be_priced_in_14页_294kb
报告摘要
Franshion Summary
Core Content
Franshion, a Chinese property development company, is currently valued at HK$2.49 with a 12-month price target of HK$3.40. The report highlights that the company's recent performance and prospects are positive, yet the share price has underperformed compared to its peers and the sector, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
Main Points
- Price Target and Recommendation: The analyst recommends a "BUY" with a 12-month price target of HK$3.40, citing its attractive valuation and strong sales prospects.
- Sales Performance: Franshion has locked in 67% of its sales target in 7M13, which is above the sector average. This includes successful launches of high ASP properties in Beijing and Changsha.
- Land Sales and Margins: The company has sold land at premiums of up to 194% in Changsha's Yuelu District, indicating a strong land market and potential for better-than-expected margins.
- Share Price Underperformance: Despite the positive results, the share price has underperformed Tier 2 players' average and the sector's average by 10% over the last month, which is deemed unjustified.
- Valuation Metrics: The current valuation is attractive with a 56% discount to NAV, 8.0x FY13F PE, and 0.9x P/BV, compared to its historical averages of 50% / 11.8x / 1.1x.
Key Information
Financial Forecasts and Valuation
| FY Dec (HK$m) | 2011A | 2012A | 2013F | 2014F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover | 6,592 | 17,176 | 24,281 | 28,873 |
| EBITDA | 4,982 | 7,768 | 8,660 | 9,924 |
| Pre-tax Profit | 4,097 | 6,723 | 7,624 | 8,920 |
| Net Profit | 2,344 | 3,378 | 3,159 | 3,954 |
| Core Net Profit | 1,646 | 2,158 | 3,159 | 3,954 |
| Core Net Profit after Perpetuals | 1,330 | 1,842 | 2,842 | 3,638 |
| EPS (HK$) | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| EPS Growth (%) | 23.3 | 51.0 | (7.1) | 28.0 |
| Diluted EPS (HK$) | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| DPS (HK$) | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| BV Per Share (HK$) | 2.36 | 2.65 | 2.90 | 3.21 |
| PE (X) | 11.2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA (X) | 8.1 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| Net Div Yield (%) | 1.6 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.8 |
| P/Book Value (X) | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Net Debt/Equity (X) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| ROAE (%) | 9.5 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 12.1 |
| Consensus EPS (HK$) | - | - | 0.32 | 0.39 |
Recent Sales Performance
- July Launches: Franshion's projects were well received, with a sale-through rate of over 95% on launch day in Changsha, fetching Rmb0.6bn in presales.
- Subscription Sales: Estimated at Rmb1.8bn in July, but contracted sales were Rmb1.3bn, reflecting the time needed to convert subscriptions to contracts.
- Cumulative Sales: Amounted to Rmb8.6bn in 7M13, representing 67% of the sales target.
Land Sales
- Yuelu District Land Sales:
- Sold two parcels to Vanke at a 3% premium.
- Another land sale on August 6 transacted at 194% premium, with a 120% premium on the next day.
- Land Sales Table:
| Date Plot | Site Area (sm) | Site Area (mu) | Type | GFA | Plot Ratio | Total Price (Rmb m) | Average Price (Rmb/mu) | Average Price (Rmb/sm) | Premium Buyer |
|---------------|---------------|---------------|----------|--------|------------|---------------------|------------------------|------------------------|---------------------|
| 10-Jan F-03/05/47 | 100,571 | 151 | Resi/com | 461,042 | 4.6 | 1,402 | 9.3 | 3,041 | 0% Hunan SNTO |
| 22-Jan I-17 | 78,072 | 117 | R&D | 130,379 | 1.7 | 199 | 1.7 | 1,526 | 0% MCC Real Estate |
| 3-May K-21 | 39,442 | 59 | R&D | 39,442 | 1.0 | 63 | 1.1 | 1,600 | 0% Jingjia Micro |
| 17-Jul K-13 | 56,845 | 85 | Resi | 130,742 | 2.3 | 404 | 4.7 | 3,092 | 3% Vanke |
| 17-Jul K-12 | 72,478 | 109 | Resi | 181,195 | 2.5 | 560 | 5.1 | 3,089 | 3% Vanke |
| 6-Aug I-12 | 11,202 | 17 | R&D | 22,404 | 2.0 | 86 | 5.1 | 3,835 | 194% Hunan Taishu |
| Total | 358,609 | 538 | - | 965,204 | - | 2,714 | 5.0 | 2,812 | - |
Monthly Contracted Sales
| Month | Sales (Rmb bn) | GFA (sm) | ASP (Rmb/sm) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.29 | 51,200 | 25,234 |
| Feb | 2.00 | 32,000 | 62,500 |
| Mar | 0.65 | 32,900 | 19,696 |
| Apr | 0.77 | 49,000 | 15,694 |
| May | 1.41 | 49,400 | 28,603 |
| Jun | 1.21 | 47,800 | 25,356 |
| Jul | 1.33 | 73,900 | 17,930 |
YTD Contracted Sales
| Period | Sales (Rmb bn) | GFA (sm) | ASP (Rmb/sm) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 1.29 | 51,200 | 25,234 |
| 2M | 3.29 | 83,200 | 39,567 |
| 3M | 3.94 | 116,200 | 33,907 |
| 4M | 4.71 | 165,200 | 28,505 |
| 5M | 6.12 | 214,600 | 28,527 |
| 6M | 7.34 | 262,400 | 27,954 |
| 7M | 8.66 | 336,300 | 25,748 |
Peer Valuation
| Company Name | Code | 8-Aug Price (HK$) | Mkt Cap (HK$bn) | Trading Value (US$m) | 12-m Target (HK$) | EPS Gth (%) | PE 13F x | PE Yield x | Yield 13F (%) | ROE 13F x | ROE 14F x | Net Gearing 12A (%) | P/Bk x | NAV to NAV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Overseas* | 688 HK | 23 | 188.0 | 63.1 | 26.12 | 4 | 13 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 20.5 | 19.8 |
| Country Garden* | 2007 HK | 4.5 | 83.1 | 13.3 | 4.85 | 12 | 30 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 19.2 | 21.8 |
| CR Land* | 1109 HK | 21.7 | 126.5 | 29.6 | 24.32 | (16) | 30 | 14.1 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 12.3 | 14.5 |
| Evergrande* | 3333 HK | 3.17 | 50.8 | 22.4 | 4.66 | (22) | 25 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 17.6 | 18.3 |
| Franshion* | 817 HK | 2.49 | 22.8 | 1.9 | 3.40 | (7) | 28 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 0.9 | 42.9 | 43.7 |
| Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Conclusion
Franshion's strong sales performance, positive profit alert, and high land sale premiums suggest that its current valuation may be undervalued. The share price underperformance is considered unjustified, and the company is recommended for investment due to its attractive valuation and promising growth prospects.
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