那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-哪些国家正在操纵其货币？-20180509-7页_690kb

Flash Economics: Currency Manipulation Analysis (May 2018)

Core Content

This document analyzes which countries are suspected of manipulating their exchange rates based on two main criteria: very low interest rates leading to capital outflows and foreign exchange reserve interventions that either cause or fail to prevent currency depreciation. The analysis focuses on a group of developed and emerging economies, including the United States, euro zone, United Kingdom, Japan, Switzerland, China, Russia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey.

Main Viewpoints

1. First Criterion: Low Interest Rates and Capital Outflows

• OECD Countries: The analysis examines key interest rates and capital flows to identify potential manipulation.

  • Switzerland: The central bank's official intervention in the forex market indicates a deliberate effort to weaken the currency.
  • Other OECD Countries: The document does not explicitly state that the US, euro zone, UK, or Japan are manipulating their currencies based on this criterion.

• Emerging Countries:

  • China: Before capital controls were reintroduced in 2017, monetary policy led to significant capital outflows.
  • Russia: Also showed capital outflows linked to its monetary policy.
  • Turkey: Experiences capital outflows that may be linked to exchange rate manipulation.

2. Second Criterion: Foreign Exchange Reserve Interventions

• OECD Countries:

  • Switzerland: Accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is noted as a potential indicator of manipulation aimed at weakening the currency.

• Emerging Countries:

  • China (2014–2016): There was a period of reserve accumulation, possibly to weaken the exchange rate, but this is no longer the case after 2016.
  • Russia (2014–2016): Similar to China, Russia showed reserve accumulation that may have been used to manipulate the exchange rate.
  • Turkey: The country is identified as engaging in exchange rate manipulation through foreign exchange reserve interventions.

Key Findings

• Based on the two criteria, the following countries are identified as potentially manipulating their exchange rates in the recent period (2017–early 2018):

  • Switzerland
  • Russia
  • Turkey

• China is no longer considered to be manipulating its currency since 2016, following the reintroduction of capital controls.

Conclusion

• The document concludes that Donald Trump's accusations against China and Russia regarding currency manipulation are not fully supported by the data for the period under analysis (2017–early 2018).
• Switzerland, Russia, and Turkey are highlighted as the countries currently showing signs of exchange-rate manipulation.

Disclaimer

• This document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only and is strictly confidential.
• It is not a financial analysis and has not been developed in accordance with legal requirements to promote the independence of investment research.
• No personalized investment recommendation is made, and the document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for any transaction.
• Natixis does not verify or independently analyze the information in this document and is not liable for any inaccuracies or omissions.
• The document is subject to regulatory restrictions in certain jurisdictions, and recipients are advised to comply with local laws.
• All views in the report reflect the personal opinions of the authors and may differ from one another.