20240902-东吴证券-千禾味业-603027.SH-2024年中报业绩点评_主动调整致短期承压期待后续改善_3页_464kb

中文总结：千禾味业2024年中报业绩分析报告

千禾味业（603027）发布2024年上半年业绩报告。数据显示，公司2024年上半年实现营业收入158.9亿元，同比增长37.8%；归母净利润25.1亿元，同比下降23.8%；扣非净利润24.6亿元，同比降幅达37.3%。

业绩下滑原因分析：

1. 产品结构影响：酱油和食醋业务遇冷。2024年第二季度，酱油收入同比下降31%，食醋下滑10.2%，而其他产品如蚝油、料酒呈增长态势。
2. 渠道策略调整：东部、中部地区收入下降明显，分别为-77%、-156%，西部略有增长。直销收入下降28%，经销商数量增至3560家。
3. 成本控制与费用增加：毛利率同比下降2.3个百分点，主要因低毛利产品占比增加及促销力度加大，导致销售费用和整体费用率均有所上升。

尽管上半年业绩承压，公司近期推出了多款新品，包括1525浓香酱油、舒化淡酱油、红烧汁、凉拌汁、蘸汁以及松茸素蚝油等，尝试以高端产品提升品牌形象，同时通过平价产品拓宽消费群体。随着新品逐步推广及渠道扩张，公司预期未来业绩将逐步改善。

分析师观点：
下调对千禾味业2024-2026年收入的预测，分别调整至34.3、38.3、42.3亿元，同比增长分别为7%、12%、10%。净利润预测调整为5.6、6.4、7亿元，同比增长分别为6%、13%、10%。维持“增持”评级，目标市盈率分别为25、22、20倍。

风险提示：原材料价格上涨、行业竞争、消费需求复苏不及预期及食品安全问题的风险。

English Summary: Qianhe Vinaigrette 2024 Mid-Year Report Analysis

Qianhe Vinaigrette (603027) released its 2024 mid-year performance report. The company achieved revenue of 1.589 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.8%, and the non-recurring adjusted net profit fell by 37.3%.

Rationale behind the performance decline:

1. Product portfolio impact: Sales of soy sauce and vinegar products faced headwinds. In the second quarter of 2024, soy sauce revenue dropped by 31%, vinegar sales fell by 10.2%, while other products like oyster sauce and rice wine showed robust growth.
2. Channel strategy adjustments: Revenue decline was evident in the eastern (-77%) and central regions (-156%), although growth was noted in the western region. Direct sales revenue decreased by 28%, while the number of distributors increased to 3,560.

The company recently launched a series of products, such as 1525 Aged Soy Sauce, Shuhua Plain Soy Sauce, and oyster sauce (Xiao Lian Xiang), aiming to enhance brand positioning and expand the consumer base. Future performance improvement is expected as new products gain traction and distribution channels expand.

Analyst Perspective:
Qianhe's revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 were lowered to 3.43 billion, 3.83 billion, and 4.23 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 7%, 12%, and 10%. Profit projections were adjusted to 560 million, 640 million, and 700 million yuan, showing gains of 6%, 13%, and 10%. The rating "Hold (Reiterated)" is maintained with target P/E ratios of 25x, 22x, and 20x for 2024-2026.

Risks:
Risks considered include sharp raw material price fluctuations, intensified industry competition, slower-than-expected consumer recovery, and food safety concerns.