20200310-天灏资本-Better_4Q19,_But_1Q20_Is_Disrupted_By_The_Epidemic_7页_717kb

报告摘要

Trip.com Group Limited 4Q19 Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2019 (4Q19) and the outlook for the first quarter of 2020 (1Q20), amidst the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the travel and lodging industries. The report includes revenue forecasts, EPS expectations, and details on the company's operating performance.

Main Points

4Q19 Revenue Expectations:
TCOM is expected to report 4Q19 net revenue of RMB8,258M, representing a 9.23% year-over-year (Y/Y) growth, which is better than the consensus and near the low end of the guidance (8% to 13% Y/Y growth).
- Accommodation reservation revenue is projected to grow 11.2% Y/Y, slightly lower than the 13.5% Y/Y growth in 3Q19.
- Transportation ticketing revenue is expected to grow 2.7% Y/Y, slightly below the 2.8% Y/Y growth in 3Q19.
- EPS is expected to be RMB0.89, which is higher than the Street estimate of RMB0.81.
1Q20 Outlook:
The outlook for 1Q20 is pessimistic due to the impact of the coronavirus epidemic, which has severely disrupted travel and lodging activities across China.
- The Ministry of Culture and Travel suspended domestic group and leisure travel on January 24, leading to a sharp decline in transportation.
- Public transportation usage dropped by 80% Y/Y from January 25 to February 17, according to the MoT.
- By March 7, air and railway passenger numbers had recovered to 28.2% and 21.2% of 2019 levels, respectively.
- International travel is also severely impacted, with 70 airlines suspending flights to China and another 50 reducing capacities significantly.
- Chinese airlines reduced their capacities by 40%.
- Hotel occupancy in mainland China dropped to 17.0%, a 75% decline from 70% on January 14.
Valuation and Price Target:
The report suspends the price target and rating for TCOM due to the high level of uncertainty surrounding the 1Q20 performance and the need for more clarifications from the company.
Conference Call Details:
TCOM will release 4Q19 results on March 18th and host an 8pm EST conference call. The dial-in number is 855-881-1339 with a passcode of 10003793.

Key Financial Figures

Metric	FY17A	FY18A	1Q19A	2Q19A	3Q19A	4Q19E	FY19E	1Q20E	2Q20E	3Q20E	4Q20E	FY20E	FY21E
Net Revenue (RMB '000)	26,779,631	30,965,000	8,164,000	8,421,517	35,752,517	7,366,176	8,824,957	12,151,672	9,738,964	38,273,608	45,902,212
EPS (RMB)	3.82	1.46	7.45	0.12	8.19	0.58	1.14	3.26	0.75	7.77	7.99

Valuation and Margins

Metric	FY17A	FY18A	1Q19A	2Q19A	3Q19A	4Q19E	FY19E	1Q20E	2Q20E	3Q20E	4Q20E	FY20E
Gross Profit Margin (%)	81.9%	79.2%	79.3%	79.4%	78.2%	78.9%	79.1%	79.3%	78.4%	79.9%	78.8%	80.3%
Operating Profit Margin (Non-GAAP) (%)	64.8%	65.7%	62.5%	59.5%	54.3%	67.9%	60.6%	62.7%	59.8%	54.1%	65.1%	60.2%
Operating Profit Margin (GAAP) (%)	10.8%	8.4%	10.8%	15.3%	21.4%	4.4%	13.5%	8.4%	10.8%	13.5%	8.4%	11.4%

Market Information

Price: $26.90
Previously Target Price: $42.00
52 Week Range: $27.03 - $46.50
Market Cap: $15.8B
Avg. Daily Vol. (100 day): 6,111,170
3-Yr. Est. Revenue CAGR: 13%

Investment Risks and Disclosures

The report acknowledges the potential risks related to the coronavirus outbreak, including its impact on travel demand, revenue growth, and operational performance.
Investment risks also include market volatility, changes in investor sentiment, competitive pressures, and economic uncertainty.
The ratings are based on absolute returns and 12-month horizons.
Disclosure of ratings distribution as of May 21, 2018:
- BUY: 82% (14 companies)
- HOLD: 18% (3 companies)
- SELL: 0% (0 companies)