20200312-天灏资本-DouYu_International_Holdings__Expect_4Q19_Revenue_To_Be_Better_Than_Consensus_Coronavirus_Has_Less_Impact_On_The_Platform_6页_797kb

DouYu International Holdings 4Q19 Revenue and Market Analysis Summary

Core Content

DouYu International Holdings (DOYU) is expected to report its 4Q19 financial results on March 19, 2020, before the U.S. market opens at 7:00 AM EST. According to the analysis, the revenue for 4Q19 is anticipated to exceed the consensus estimate of RMB1,993M and fall within the company's guidance range of RMB1,960M to RMB2,030M. The company's performance in the first two months of 2020 shows some positive trends despite the challenges posed by the coronavirus outbreak.

Key Financial Metrics

Revenue Growth

• Daily average hot index: Increased by 124.6% Y/Y in the first two months of 2020, compared to 145.6% Y/Y in 4Q19.
• Daily average hosts: Increased by 4.5% Y/Y in the first two months of 2020, compared to 15.0% Y/Y in 4Q19.
• Daily average games: Increased by 111.8% Y/Y in the first two months of 2020, compared to 69.7% Y/Y in 4Q19.

App Performance

• Unique devices index: Decreased by 5.8% Y/Y in January 2020, compared to 4.9% Y/Y in 4Q19.
• Total uses index: Decreased by 5.1% Y/Y in January 2020, compared to 19.7% Y/Y in 4Q19.
• Time spend index: Increased by 1.8% Y/Y in January 2020, compared to 22.7% Y/Y in 4Q19.
• Market share: Declined to 35.3% for time spend and 42.9% for total uses in January 2020, compared to 39.0% and 45.2% in 4Q19, respectively.

Revenue and Earnings Projections

Period	Net Revenue (RMB millions)	Non-GAAP Net Income (RMB millions)	Non-GAAP EPS (Ordinary Share)	Non-GAAP EPS (ADS)
1Q20E	1,978.9	120.2	4.16	0.42
2Q20E	2,173.3	170.1	5.89	0.59
3Q20E	2,342.4	203.1	7.03	0.70
4Q20E	2,498.4	249.1	8.62	0.86
FY20E	8,994.1	742.4	25.70	2.57
FY21E	11,200.9	1,062.9	36.79	3.68
FY22E	12,713.2	1,166.0	40.22	4.02

Key Information

• Price: $7.29
• Market Cap: $2.38B
• 52 Week Range: $6.50 - $11.88
• Avg. Daily Vol. (100 day): 1,781,477
• P/E Ratio (Non-GAAP): 19.5x for FY20E
• EPS Forecast:
  • Non-GAAP EPS (Ordinary Share): Expected to rise from 0.30 in 4Q19 to 25.70 in FY20E.
  • Non-GAAP EPS (ADS): Expected to rise from 0.30 in 4Q19 to 2.57 in FY20E.

Impact of External Factors

• The company was slightly impacted by the government policy of removing the lucky-draw function, which affected 1Q20 revenue.
• The coronavirus outbreak had a less significant impact compared to the policy change.
• Major E-Sport events such as LPL and KPL were delayed, affecting the platform's performance.

Contact Information

• Tian X. Hou: +86 10 8567 0989 | thou@thdatacapital.com
• Jay Dong: +86 10 8567 0787 | jldong@thedatacapital.com
• Ethan Qin: +86 10 8567 0787 | eqin@thdatacapital.com
• Gina Chen: (646) 389-8528 | gchen@thdatacapital.com

Important Disclosures

• The report is a compendium covering multiple companies.
• T.H. Capital, LLC provides specific disclosures for each subject company.
• Ratings are based on the analyst's discretion and are not guaranteed.
• The report is for institutional clients and does not constitute a personal recommendation.
• Investment decisions are at the user's own risk, and T.H. Capital is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of the information provided.

Risk Factors

• Earnings and Revenue Estimates: The company may not meet T.H. Capital's expectations.
• Macroeconomic and Industry Events: Unforeseen events could impact demand for the company's services.
• Investor Sentiment: Changes in sentiment could affect stock performance.
• Competitive Pressures: Intense and rapidly changing competition in the market.
• Regulatory Changes: Continued development of industry standards and regulatory environments.
• Personnel Risks: Difficulty in recruiting and retaining competent staff.
• Market Conditions: Adverse market conditions could impact overall performance.

Rating Definitions

• BUY: Expected to produce a total return of 15% or greater over the next 12 months.
• SELL: Expected to produce a total return of 15% or greater negative over the next 12 months.
• HOLD: Not expected to appreciate or depreciate meaningfully over the next 12 months.

Distribution of Ratings

As of May 21, 2018, the distribution of ratings across T.H. Capital, LLC was:

• BUY (B): 14 (82%)
• HOLD (H): 3 (18%)
• SELL (S): 0 (0%)

Legal and Compliance Notes

• T.H. Capital, LLC is an independent research firm registered in China.
• The firm provides research services to institutional clients only.
• Research analysts are prohibited from owning any positions in stocks under coverage.
• T.H. Capital or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of the common stock of the subject company.
• The subject company was a client of T.H. Capital, LLC, and the analyst has knowledge of this relationship.
• T.H. Capital does not provide investment banking services and has no authority to give information on behalf of the company.
• Unauthorized use, disclosure, or redistribution of the report is strictly prohibited.

Final Notes

• The report is based on reliable but not necessarily accurate or complete information.
• T.H. Capital seeks to update reports as appropriate, but may be restricted by regulations.
• Users assume all risks and liabilities associated with the use of the report.
• The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment advice.