20160222-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_303kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia property market, including key news, market performance, and upcoming events across China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and Singapore. It highlights trends in residential and commercial property, tax changes, REIT activity, and market sentiment.

Main Points and Key Information

Key News and Updates

• China Property Market:

  • Transaction Volume: Increased significantly due to a low CNY base, with a weekly volume jump of +1181% wow and +441% yoy. However, the February cumulative weekly average volume was still 5% below that of February 2015.
  • Land Sales: Transaction volume and value dropped by -44% and -52% respectively.
  • Deed Tax Changes: First-time homebuyers of properties over 90 square meters will now pay a deed tax of 1.5% of the house price, down from 2%, while second homebuyers will pay 1% for properties under 90 square meters and 2% for larger ones in cities excluding Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.
  • Housing Sales: In Shanghai, new home sales during the Spring Festival holiday dropped by over 94% wow to 9,200sqm, with a mean selling price of Rmb 33,378 psm, down 12.1% wow.

• Hong Kong Property Market:

  • Residential Sales: Estimated 101 primary residential units were sold in the week ending Feb 21, up 5X from the previous week, but still 16% below the 3-month average of 120 units.
  • Secondary Market: Prices fell by 0.3% wow as of Feb 14, with a year-to-date decline of 3.9%.
  • Link REIT: Won a commercial building tender in Mongkok with a valuation of HK$5.91bn or HK$20,789psf.
  • NWD Waterfront Revitalization: The plan was scrapped, with the government opting for a simple makeover of the promenade.
  • Tourism Data: Hong Kong's tourist arrivals in 2015 fell by 2.5% yoy to 59.3 million, with a 9.1% decline in average spending per overnight visitor.

• India Property Market:

  • Housing Sales: Fell by 17% in 2H15 compared to 1H15, according to CBRE.
  • New Projects: Declined by 31% in the same period.

• Japan Property Market:

  • Condo Contract Ratio: In Tokyo, the contract ratio for January 2016 was 58.6%, the lowest in 7.5 years, due to a lower high-end contract rate.
  • NTT Urban Development: Launched a private REIT with a target yield of over 4%.
  • Mitsui Fudosan: Announced plans to launch a logistics REIT, expected to have ¥70bn AuM by summer.

• Singapore Property Market:

  • Private Home Sales: Developers sold 322 private homes in January 2016, down 16% qoq and 14% yoy.
  • URA Data: Compared to Dec 2015, where sales were down 49% mom but up 67% yoy.

Performance Overview

• Market Cap Weighted Performance:
  • China Property (off-shore): 9% 1-wk, -14% 1mo, -8% 3mo; Underlying P/E: 7.3; Dividend Yield: 5.5%.
  • China Property (on-shore): 2% 1-wk, -4% 1mo, -9% 3mo; Underlying P/E: 9.4; Dividend Yield: 1.8%.
  • Hong Kong Properties: 5% 1-wk, -3% 1mo, -16% 3mo; Underlying P/E: 20.2; Dividend Yield: 12.2%.
  • India Property: 5% 1-wk, -10% 1mo, -15% 3mo; Underlying P/E: 24.9; Dividend Yield: 1.6%.
  • Japan Property Developers: 13% 1-wk, -2% 1mo, -18% 3mo; Underlying P/E: 23.3; Dividend Yield: 0.9%.
  • Japan REITs: 10% 1-wk, +12% 1mo, +11% 3mo; Underlying P/E: 20.3; Dividend Yield: 2.9%.
  • ASEAN Property: 3% 1-wk, -3% 1mo, -8% 3mo; Underlying P/E: 17.4; Dividend Yield: 2.1%.

Top and Bottom Performers of the Week

• Top 5 Performers:

  • Tokyo Tatemono: +24% 1-wk, +9% 1-mo.
  • China Overseas Grand Oceans: +20% 1-wk, -5% 1-mo.
  • Greentern China: +18% 1-wk, +7% 1-mo.
  • DA Office: +17% 1-wk, +14% 1-mo.
  • Mitsui Fudosan: +17% 1-wk, -1% 1-mo.

• Bottom 5 Performers:

  • Prestige Estate: -3% 1-wk, -16% 1-mo.
  • Summertem: -3% 1-wk, +2% 1-mo.
  • Ciputra Development: -2% 1-wk, -3% 1-mo.
  • Godrej Properties: -2% 1-wk, -14% 1-mo.
  • Bumi Sperog: -1% 1-wk, -3% 1-mo.

Upcoming Events

• Hong Kong:

  • 23-Feb: NWD 1H FY16 results, Yuexiu REIT FY15 results, Unemployment rate, HKSAR Budget, GDP, Sino Land 1H FY16 results.
  • 24-Feb: Champion REIT FY15 results.
  • 26-Feb: SHKP 1H FY16 results.

• Singapore:

  • 23-Feb: CPI.
  • 24-Feb: GDP.

• Japan:

  • 26-Feb: CPI.
  • 29-Feb: Retail sales, housing starts, construction orders.

Market Snapshots

Residential Market Snapshot

• China:

  • Hong Kong: Residential price index at 249, up 13% vs end-12; Weekly volume at 101 units.
  • Beijing: Price index at 409, up 35% vs end-12; Weekly volume at 91 ksqm.
  • Shanghai: Price index at 284, up 59% vs end-12; Weekly volume at 281 ksqm.
  • Guangzhou: Price index at 86, up 25% vs end-12; Weekly volume at 107 ksqm.
  • Shenzhen: Price index at 480, up 176% vs end-12; Weekly volume at 147 ksqm.

• Japan:

  • Tokyo: Price index at 176, up 40% vs end-12; Monthly volume at 3,550 units.

• India:

  • Mumbai: Price index at 211, up 15% vs end-12.

• ASEAN:

  • Singapore: Price index at 172, down 4% vs end-12; Monthly volume at 2,410 units.

Commercial Property Market Snapshot

• Office Rental Value:

  • Hong Kong: Index at 181, up 7% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +1%, +0%, +1%, +4%; Vacancy rate at 4%.
  • Beijing: Index at 298, up 35% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +29%, +0%, +0%, +0%; Vacancy rate at 4%.
  • Shanghai: Index at 154, up 4% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +0%, +2%, +2%, +2%; Vacancy rate at 9%.
  • Guangzhou: Index at 152, up 1% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +0%, -1%, -1%, -1%; Vacancy rate at 8%.
  • Shenzhen: Index at 275, up 32% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +0%, +6%, +6%, +6%; Vacancy rate at 5%.

• Office Capital Value:

  • Hong Kong: Index at 228, up 9% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: -0%, +0%, +0%, +1%; Rental yield at 3%.
  • Beijing: Index at 335, up 17% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +2%, n.a., n.a., n.a.; Rental yield at 7%.
  • Shanghai: Index at 281, up 59% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +1%, -1%, +2%, -2%; Rental yield at 6%.
  • Guangzhou: Index at 187, up 6% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: n.a., n.a., n.a., n.a.; Rental yield at n.a.
  • Shenzhen: Index at 378, n.a. vs end-12; Quarterly changes: n.a., n.a., n.a., n.a.; Rental yield at n.a.
  • Tokyo: Index at 94, up 3% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +3%, +1%, +1%, n.a.; Vacancy rate at 6%.

• Retail Market Snapshot:

  • Hong Kong: Rental index at 178, up 7% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +0%, +0%, +0%, +0%; Vacancy rate at n.a.
  • Beijing: Rental index at 193, up 15% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +5%, +1%, +0%, +1%; Vacancy rate at +6%.
  • Shanghai: Rental index at 136, up 6% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +1%, +1%, -2%, -0%; Vacancy rate at +8%.
  • Singapore: Rental index at 124, down 1% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +1%, +1%, -1%, -1%; Vacancy rate at +7%.

• Retail Capital Value:

  • Hong Kong: Index at 342, up 20% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: +3%, +2%, +2%, +1%; Rental yield at 4%.
  • Tokyo: Index at 140, up 5% vs end-12; Quarterly changes: -1%, +3%, -0%, -1%; Rental yield at 5%.

• Office and Retail Supply and Take-Up:

  • Hong Kong: Office supply at 7,386 ksqm; Vacancy rate at 4%; Completion at 125 ksqm; Take-up at 32 ksqm.
  • Beijing: Office supply at 5,839 ksqm; Vacancy rate at 3%; Completion at 140 ksqm; Take-up at 423 ksqm.
  • Shanghai: Office supply at 6,681 ksqm; Vacancy rate at 9%; Completion at 748 ksqm; Take-up at 430 ksqm.
  • Guangzhou: Office supply at 3,443 ksqm; Vacancy rate at 10%; Completion at 396 ksqm; Take-up at 336 ksqm.
  • Shenzhen: Office supply at 2,514 ksqm; Vacancy rate at 8%; Completion at 580 ksqm; Take-up at 174 ksqm.
  • Tokyo: Office supply at 7,314 ksqm; Vacancy rate at 7%; Completion at 569 ksqm; Take-up at 732 ksqm.
  • Mumbai: Office supply at 6,925 ksqm; Vacancy rate at 30%; Completion at 836 ksqm; Take-up at 423 ksqm.
  • Bangalore: Office supply at 10,123 ksqm; Vacancy rate at 4%; Completion at 389 ksqm; Take-up at 438 ksqm.
  • Singapore: Office supply at 6,294 ksqm; Vacancy rate at 11%; Completion at 192 ksqm; Take-up at 129 ksqm.

Largest Upsides/Downsides for Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks

• Buy-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2bn):

  • Shimao: 129% upside potential.
  • Dan Wanda Comm Prop: 10% upside potential.
  • Tokyo Tatemono: 80% upside potential.
  • New World Dev: 78% upside potential.
  • Hang Lung Prop: 73% upside potential.

• Sell-Rated Stocks:

  • Ciutista Development: -23% downside potential.
  • Far East Hospitality Trust: -9% downside potential.
  • Goodrii Properties: -7% downside potential.

• Buy-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2bn):

  • Aiele: 111% upside potential.
  • Prestige Estate: 102% upside potential.
  • Sobba Developers: 98% upside potential.
  • Oberoi Realty: 78% upside potential.
  • Yanlord Land: 44% upside potential.

Source

• Data from: Centaline Property Agency, R&VD, China National Bureau of Statistics, China Index Academy, Jones Lang LaSalle, URA, Real Estate Economic Institute, Knight Frank, Miki Shoji, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Disclaimer

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.