20151005-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly_A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_286kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia property market, focusing on residential and commercial trends, key news updates, stock performance, and upcoming events. It highlights the performance of real estate developers and REITs across major markets including China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and Singapore, along with macroeconomic indicators and market data.

Key News and Updates

Hong Kong

• Residential Sales: 81 primary residential units were sold in the week ending Oct 4, a significant drop of 72% from the prior week's 288 units and 68% below the 3-month average of 250 units.
• Secondary Market Prices: Declined 0.4% week-on-week as of Sep 13, with a 9.5% year-to-date increase.
• Retail Sales: August retail sales value fell 5.4% year-on-year, with valuables down 8.8% yoy. Total retail sales value in the first 8 months of 2015 declined 2.2% yoy.
• Government Supply Plans: The government plans to tender four residential plots (2,850 units) in 3Q, aiming for a total supply of 4,840 units.
• Shimao Property: Won a 219,000 sf residential site in Tai Wo Ping for HK$7.02bn, or HK$11,100 psf.
• Mainland Chinese Buyers: Accounted for 16.1% of primary market transactions in 2Q15, the lowest in seven years.

India

• Abbott India: Purchased Godrej BKC (435,000 sf) in Mumbai's Bandra-Kurla Complex for Rs14.79bn from Godrej Prop.
• Population Growth: Non-resident population growth in Singapore slowed to 2.1% this year, down from 2.9% in 2014.

Japan

• New Housing Starts: August new housing starts were 80,255 units, a 8.8% year-on-year increase, marking six consecutive months of growth.
• Tokyo Housing Prices: Used house prices in Tokyo rose 1.5% month-on-month, up for 12 consecutive months.
• Residential Price Index: Tokyo residential price index rose 1.24 points month-on-month, up for three consecutive months.

China

• Down Payment Policy: China reduced the minimum down payment for first-time home buyers to 25% in cities without purchase restrictions.
• Real Estate Sales: CRIC reported a 26% year-on-year increase in sales for major developers in 3Q15, but a 10% quarter-on-quarter decline.
• Commercial Housing Sales: The sales value of commercial housing in the first eight months of 2015 reached Rmb4.8tn, up 15.3% yoy.

Stock Performance

Top 5 Performers (Week)

• Leu: +28% (1-wk), +25% (1-mo)
• Housev. Dev. & Infra.: +13% (1-wk), +24% (1-mo)
• E-House: +13% (1-wk), +18% (1-mo)
• KWG Prop.: +11% (1-wk), +21% (1-mo)
• Sobha Developers: +10% (1-wk), -4% (1-mo)

Bottom 5 Performers (Week)

• China Mer, Prop (A): -11% (1-wk), -11% (1-mo)
• Mor Trust SooT REIT: -6% (1-wk), +2% (1-mo)
• Phoenix: -5% (1-wk), -3% (1-mo)
• DA Office: -5% (1-wk), +8% (1-mo)
• Gemdale Corp: -4% (1-wk), +14% (1-mo)

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2 bn)

• Buy-Rated: Aigle (+96%), Shimao (+92%), Shu On Land (+74%), Tokyo Tatemono (+73%), Hang Lung Prop (+69)
• Sell-Based: Gemdale Corp (-27%), Champion REIT (-13%), Evergreenie (-8%), Advance Residence (-6%), Suntec REIT (-11%)

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2 bn)

• Buy-Rated: Sobiya Develops (+91%), Prestige Estate (+68%), Obeiro Realty (+54%), Home Inn (+7%)
• Sell-Based: Goodie Properties (-22%)

Upcoming Events

Key Research Highlights

China

• Real Estate Developers: Better supply and demand but lower valuations.
• CRIC 3Q15 sales summary: Major developers saw a 26% year-on-year increase in sales but a 10% quarter-on-quarter decline.
• OUE Hospitality Trust: Upgraded to Neutral, with coverage terminated.

Singapore

• Private property price index fell 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, the biggest drop since 3Q13.
• Investment sales fell to S$2.86bn, the lowest since 2Q09.
• Non-resident population growth slowed to 2.1% this year.

Residential Market Snapshot

Hong Kong

• Price Index: 278 (vs end-12: +4%, Last update: 27-Sep-15)
• Transaction Volume: 81 units/week, down 72% from prior week.
• Rental Yield: 2.70% (14Q3), 2.65% (14Q4), 2.60% (15Q1)
• Mortgage Rate: 5.00% (14Q3), 5.00% (14Q4), 5.00% (15Q1)

Beijing

• Price Index: 447 (vs end-12: +48%, Last update: 27-Sep-15)
• Transaction Volume: 173 ksgm/week, up 11% month-on-month.
• Rental Yield: 2.09% (14Q3), 2.10% (14Q4), 2.10% (15Q1)
• Mortgage Rate: 6.55% (14Q3), 6.55% (14Q4), 6.55% (15Q1)

Shanghai

• Price Index: 272 (vs end-12: +52%, Last update: 27-Sep-15)
• Transaction Volume: 473 ksgm/week, up 4% month-on-month.
• Rental Yield: 2.08% (14Q3), 2.12% (14Q4), 2.14% (15Q1)
• Mortgage Rate: 6.55% (14Q3), 6.55% (14Q4), 6.55% (15Q1)

Tokyo

• Price Index: 144 (vs end-12: +15%, Last update: 31-Mar-15)
• Used House Price: ¥43.51mn (+2% mom)
• Residential Price Index: 93.89pp (+2.02pp mom)

Singapore

• Private Property Price Index: 172 (vs end-12: -4%, Last update: 31-Mar-15)
• Rental Yield: 3.27% (14Q3), 3.18% (14Q4)
• Mortgage Rate: 1.50% (14Q3), 1.50% (14Q4), 2.00% (15Q1)

Commercial Property Market Snapshot

Office Rental Value

• Hong Kong: Rental index at 175 (vs end-12: +4%), vacancy rate at 4%.
• Beijing: Rental index at 297 (vs end-12: +35%), vacancy rate at 2%.
• Shanghai: Rental index at 151 (vs end-12: +2%), vacancy rate at 9%.
• Tokyo: Rental index at 92 (vs end-12: +1%), vacancy rate at 6%.

Retail Rental Value

• Hong Kong: Rental index at 185 (vs end-12: +6%), vacancy rate not available.

Key Contacts

• China Property: Yi Wang, CFA (86) 21-2401-8930; Vicky Li (86) 21-2401-8926; Jill Guan (86) 21-2401-8921
• Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu (852) 2978-0634; Justin Kwok, CFA (852) 2978-0481; Claire Cheng (852) 2978-0488; Nelson Wang (65) 6654-5463
• India Property: Puneet Jain (91) 22-6616-9046
• Japan Property: Sachiko Okada (81) 3-6437-9937; Akira Watanabe (81) 3-6437-9819
• Singapore Property: Paul Lian (65) 6889-2464; Jason Yeo (65) 6889-2485

Important Disclosures

• Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports, which may affect the objectivity of this report.
• Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions.
• For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.