20151103-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly_A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_282kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed summary of the Asia property market performance, including key news, market trends, and upcoming events. It also highlights the performance of specific stocks and market data for residential and commercial properties across China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore.

Key News and Updates

China

• Sales Volume: Increased by 6% week-over-week (wow) and 17% year-over-year (yoy), led by tier-3 cities. The October average weekly sales were 17% higher than September.
• Inventory: Decreased by 0.9% wow and 1.6% monthly.
• Policy Change: China officially ended its one-child policy, allowing all couples to have two children.
• PMI Data: China's official PMI remained at 49.8 in October, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.1, the weakest since late 2008.
• Premier Li Keqiang: Stated that China needs to maintain a minimum economic growth rate of 6.53% over the next five years to achieve a "moderately prosperous society" by 2020.
• New Home Prices: Continued to rise both yoy and mom for the third consecutive month, with the average price per square meter (psm) in 100 cities reaching Rmb10,849 in October.

Hong Kong

• Residential Sales: Estimated 153 units sold in the week ending Nov 1, down 57% from the previous week and 45% below the 3-month average of 276 units.
• Secondary Market Prices: Down 0.9% wow as of Oct 25, but up 7.2% ytd.
• Tourism: September tourist arrivals fell 4% yoy to 4.559mn, with Mainland Chinese tourists down 4.7% yoy.
• HKEx Expansion: Agreed to lease 3 floors at Exchange Square for expansion at HK$135 per square foot (psf) per month.
• Link REIT: Sold 5 retail properties for HK$1,716mn, with a disposal gain of c.HK$378mn expected by Dec-2015.
• SHKP Sales Growth: 9 major malls recorded 14% yoy sales growth for the first 9 months of 2015, with a forecast of 10% growth for Christmas, lower than 2014's 15–20%.

Japan

• Housing Starts: Grew by 2.6% yoy in September, slower than expected.
• Consumer Prices: Flat yoy in September, down from 0.2% in August.
• Bank of Japan: Maintained its stimulus program despite weak data, as the economy approaches recession.

India

• Affordable Housing: Canada's pension fund is ready to invest US$2bn in affordable housing in Mumbai.
• Condo Launches: Two mid-segment condo projects, Principal Garden and Thomson Impressions, saw strong demand with 60% of 350 units sold over the weekend.

Singapore

• Condo Launches: Two new condo projects saw strong demand, with 60% of 350 units sold.
• Keppel REIT: Issued S$150mn in perpetual bonds at 4.98%.

Upcoming Events

Residential Market Snapshot

Price Performance

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: Price index at 272, up 23% from end-12, last updated on 25-Oct-15.
  • Beijing: Price index at 416, up 38% from end-12, last updated on 1-Nov-15.
  • Shanghai: Price index at 302, up 69% from end-12, last updated on 1-Nov-15.
  • Guangzhou: Price index at 82, up 19% from end-12, last updated on 1-Nov-15.
  • Shenzhen: Price index at 305, up 75% from end-12, last updated on 1-Nov-15.

Transaction Volume

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: 152 units/wk, down 34% mom.
  • Beijing: 189 ksqm/wk, up 24% mom.
  • Shanghai: 620 ksqm/wk, up 22% mom.
  • Guangzhou: 262 ksqm/wk, up 24% mom.
  • Shenzhen: 135 ksqm/wk, up 43% mom.

Japan

• Tokyo: Price index at 144, up 15% from end-12, last updated on 31-Mar-15.
• Kinki Area: Price index at 121, up 16% from end-12, last updated on 31-Mar-15.

India

• Mumbai: Price index at 215, up 17% from end-12, last updated on 30-Sep-14.

Asean

• Singapore: Price index at 172, down 4% from end-12, last updated on 31-Mar-15.

Key Research for the Week

China

• Real Estate Developers: Strong contract sales helped balance sheets, but GPM was mixed.
• Oberoi Realty (OEBO.Bo): Positive feedback from the Borivali project site launch; Buy rating.
• Mitsubishi Estate (8802.T): Above expectations with guidance hike on rent and sales; office market strong.
• Global Logistic Properties (GLPL.SI): In line with expectations; ops metrics firm, guidance intact.
• Nomura Real Estate Holdings (3231.T): 1H above expectations, but guidance hike as expected; Neutral.
• Wing Tai Holdings (WTHS.SI): Revised estimates for slower high-end sales.
• Mapletree Greater China Commercial (MAPE.SI): Solid result but more challenges ahead.
• Link REIT (0823.HK): Sold five retail properties, more funds for unit buybacks.
• CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CACT.SI): Office weakness priced in; maintain Buy rating.

Top and Bottom Performers

• Top Performers:

  • China Mer. Prop (A): +8% 1-wk, +2% 1-mo.
  • SOHO China: +7% 1-wk, +35% 1-mo.
  • Mapletree Commercial Trust: +6% 1-wk, +8% 1-mo.
  • ORIX JREIT: +5% 1-wk, +7% 1-mo.

• Bottom Performers:

  • Gemdale Corp: -5% 1-wk, -8% 1-mo.
  • Ferriomation: -4% 1-wk, +12% 1-mo.
  • Tokyo Tatemono: -4% 1-wk, +6% 1-mo.
  • Nomura Real Estate HD: -3% 1-wk, +4% 1-mo.
  • Prestige Estate: -2% 1-wk, +1% 1-mo.

Key Rating/TP Changes

• No major rating or target price changes were reported in the previous week.

Performance and Valuation

Summary of Supply and Take-Up

Residential

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: Existing stocks at 1,138,421 units, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
  • Beijing: Existing stocks not available, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
  • Shanghai: Existing stocks not available, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
  • Guangzhou: Existing stocks not available, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
  • Shenzhen: Existing stocks not available, last updated on 31-Dec-14.

Commercial

• Office:
  • Greater China:
    • Hong Kong: Existing stocks at 7,386 ksqm, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
    • Beijing: Existing stocks at 5,839 ksqm, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
    • Shanghai: Existing stocks at 6,681 ksqm, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
    • Guangzhou: Existing stocks at 3,443 ksqm, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
    • Shenzhen: Existing stocks at 2,514 ksqm, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
  • Japan:
    • Tokyo: Existing stocks at 7,314 ksqm, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
  • India:
    • Mumbai: Existing stocks at 6,925 ksqm, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
    • Bangalore: Existing stocks at 10,123 ksqm, last updated on 31-Dec-14.
  • Asean:
    • Singapore: Existing stocks at 6,294 ksqm, last updated on 31-Mar-15.

Additional Notes

• Upside/Downside Potential:

  • Buy-rated stocks: Azale (87%), Shinap (72%), Tokyo Tatemono (67%), Country Garden (57%), KWG Prop. (49%).
  • Sell-rated stocks: Gemdata Corp. (-24%), Evergrande (-17%), Champion REIT (-15%), Suntec REIT (-6%).

• Regional Conviction List: Agile, Shimo, and Tokyo Tatemono are on the list.

• Sources: Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research.