【国际碳行动伙伴关系组织ICAP】2025年全球碳排放交易现状报告_272页_15mb

Emissions Trading Worldwide: Status Report 2025 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the current state and future direction of emissions trading systems (ETSs) globally. It highlights the increasing adoption and development of ETSs, their role in decarbonization, and the challenges and opportunities they present as the world moves toward net-zero emissions.

Main Points

1. Global ETS Landscape

• Number of ETSs: As of January 2025, 38 ETSs are in force globally, with an additional 20 in development or under consideration.
• Coverage: These systems cover approximately 19% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, representing one-third of the global population and 58% of global GDP.
• G20 Participation: 17 of the G20 countries have ETSs or are planning to implement them, at either national or sub-national levels.

2. Regional Developments

Asia-Pacific

• India: Adopted a baseline-and-credit system for energy-intensive industries and a carbon crediting mechanism.
• China: Expanding its national ETS beyond the power sector, considering an absolute cap. Several regional pilots are also expanding sectoral coverage.
• Indonesia: Operational intensity-based ETS for the power sector; plans to implement a "cap-tax-and-trade" hybrid system for the power subsector.
• Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand: Actively considering emissions trading as part of their climate policy tools.
• Türkiye and Vietnam: Developing regulations for pilot ETSs.

Latin America

• Brazil: Established the legal foundation for a federal ETS and is in the initial phase of implementation.
• Chile: Developing sectoral emissions limits and preparing a pilot ETS for the energy sector.
• Colombia: Launched a public consultation on ETS regulations.
• Mexico: Transitioning from a pilot ETS to full implementation.
• Dominican Republic: Appears in the report for the first time, exploring the feasibility of a pilot ETS.

Europe and Central Asia

• Austria: Launched a national ETS in 2022, covering fossil fuels not included in the EU ETS. Plans to "opt in" fuels used in agriculture and forestry.
• European Union: Completed major reforms in 2023, with new caps and expanded coverage to maritime transport and flights to/from outermost regions. A new ETS for buildings, road transport, and other sectors (ETS 2) is in development.
• Germany: Launched its national ETS in 2021, covering heating and transport fuels. Phased out by 2026, with a transition to ETS 2 in 2027.
• Kazakhstan: ETS has been operating for 13 years, with updated allocation plans for 2022–2025 and reduced caps.
• Montenegro: National ETS launched in 2020, but only one installation remains active. Revisions to the "ETS decree" are expected by the end of 2025.
• Switzerland: Linked with the EU ETS since 2020, with reforms in 2024 aligning it with EU ETS for 2025–2030. Caps are being reduced with new linear reduction factors, and CCS and foreign biogas are now eligible.
• Türkiye: Planning to launch its ETS in 2026, with technical analysis completed in 2024 and final parliamentary steps expected in early 2025.
• Ukraine: Preparing regulatory framework for national ETS, with pilot phase expected in 2028. The "Law on Basic Principles of Climate Policy" was approved in December 2024, mandating an ETS. Mandatory reporting under MRV was reintroduced in January 2025.

North America

• Alberta: Introduced the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Regulation (TIER) in 2020, based on output intensity. Amendments in 2023 saw full implementation in 2024.
• British Columbia: Launched the Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS) in April 2024, replacing the voluntary CleanBC program.
• California: One of the largest and most comprehensive ETSs in the world, linked with Quebec since 2014. Major program reforms in 2024, including new targets and market design changes.
• Colorado: Launched an ETS for in-state manufacturers in 2024, with plans to expand in 2028.
• Canada Federal: The OBPS has been in place since 2019 as part of the federal carbon pollution pricing backstop. Draft regulations for a federal cap-and-trade system for upstream oil, gas, and LNG production were published in November 2024, with full implementation planned for 2030–2032.
• New York State: Developing program rules for an economy-wide ETS.
• Maryland: Actively considering the establishment of its own economy-wide ETS.

3. Market Trends and Price Signals

• Market Volatility: 2024 saw increased market volatility, with most ETSs recording lower average prices than 2023.
• EU ETS: Prices declined from record highs in 2023, stabilizing at lower levels throughout the year.
• Carbon Pricing Reforms: The EU, California, Quebec, Korea, New Zealand, and the UK are implementing reforms to reduce free allocation of allowances, enhancing market efficiency and price signals.
• Auction Revenues: Global auction revenues declined to USD 70 billion in 2024, down USD 4 billion from 2023. However, emissions trading revenues remain a critical source of climate finance.
• Reinvestment Strategies: New systems such as Washington State, New York State, and the EU ETS 2 are prioritizing the reinvestment of auction proceeds into climate mitigation, consumer protection, and technological innovation.

4. Role of Offsets and Crediting Mechanisms

• Offsetting: 24 out of 38 active ETSs allow for the use of carbon credits as a compliance option, with strict qualitative and quantitative limits.
• Emerging Economies: China, Indonesia, India, and Brazil are incorporating domestic carbon credits to broaden the impact of their ETS price signals.
• International Credits: Only South Korea currently accepts international credits as an alternative compliance unit.
• Market Fragmentation: The compliance-grade carbon credit market remains highly fragmented, with varying eligibility criteria and standards.

5. Challenges and Opportunities

• Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness: Concerns about carbon leakage are growing, prompting the introduction of carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) in the EU and UK.
• Public Acceptability and Just Transition: Governments are adopting strategies to build public support for ETSs, including using revenues for direct compensation or reinvestment in equity and sustainability programs.
• System Design: Newer systems are moving toward market-based allocation of allowances, with some jurisdictions requiring all allowances to be purchased from the outset.
• Policy Synergies: Policymakers must strengthen policy synergies to support both near-term reductions and long-term structural changes required for decarbonization.

6. Future Outlook

• Continued Expansion: ETSs are expanding in both number and scope, covering new sectors such as maritime transport, road transport, buildings, and waste management.
• International Cooperation: Initiatives like the International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) are playing a crucial role in facilitating cross-border collaboration and policy alignment.
• Net-Zero Alignment: Reforms in the EU and UK are exploring ETS alignment with net-zero trajectories, while California and Quebec are advancing their own policy reforms.

Key Information

• Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs) are critical tools in the global effort to achieve net-zero emissions.
• Global ETS Coverage increased slightly to 19% of global GHG emissions in 2025.
• New Systems are emerging in emerging economies, such as Türkiye, Vietnam, and several Asian and Latin American countries.
• Market Reforms are shifting towards auction-based allocation and reinvestment strategies, enhancing market efficiency and transparency.
• Public Support and Just Transition are becoming increasingly important, with governments using ETS revenues to support vulnerable communities and promote equitable climate action.

Conclusion

As new systems emerge and existing ones evolve, closer international cooperation is essential to ensure that carbon markets remain effective, resilient, and aligned with the goal of a net-zero future. The report underscores the need for continued innovation, policy refinement, and global collaboration to address the complex challenges of climate change and decarbonization.