全球排放交易_2025年ICAP状况报告（英）_271页_16mb

Emissions Trading Worldwide: Status Report 2025 Summary

Core Content

The International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) has released the Status Report 2025 on Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs), highlighting the global expansion and evolution of these systems as a key tool for climate action and decarbonization. The report underscores the importance of ETSs in setting clear emission reduction targets, promoting cost-effective climate solutions, and fostering innovation. It also addresses the challenges and opportunities in the path toward achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Main Points

• Global ETS Expansion: As of January 2025, 38 ETSs are in force globally, covering just over 10 GTCO₂e or 19% of global GHG emissions. Another 20 systems are in development or under consideration.
• Growing Participation: Middle-income countries like Brazil, India, Chile, Colombia, and Türkiye are accelerating the development of ETS frameworks, indicating a shift in leadership from developed to emerging economies.
• Sector Expansion: ETS coverage is expanding beyond traditional sectors, with maritime transport, road transport, buildings, and waste management now included or under consideration in various jurisdictions.
• Market Dynamics: 2024 saw increased market volatility, with most ETSs recording lower average prices than 2023. However, some systems, like China’s and Korea’s, experienced moderate or stable price growth.
• Auction Revenues Declined: Global auction revenues fell to approximately USD 70 billion in 2024, a decrease of USD 4 billion from the previous year. This highlights the need for more efficient auction models and revenue recycling strategies.
• Policy Reforms: Major reforms are underway in the EU, UK, California, and Quebec to align ETSs with net-zero goals, including tighter caps, new market mechanisms, and the introduction of cap-and-invest and cap-tax-and-trade hybrid systems.
• Carbon Credits and Offsets: The use of carbon credits and offsetting mechanisms is becoming more prominent, especially in new ETSs. However, the market remains fragmented, and international credit usage is still limited.
• Competitiveness and Carbon Leakage: Concerns about carbon leakage and competitiveness are driving the development of carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs), particularly in the EU and UK. These mechanisms aim to align trade policies with climate ambitions while minimizing economic impacts.
• Public Acceptability and Just Transition: Governments are increasingly framing ETSs as a tool for just transition, using auction revenues to support vulnerable communities and promote equity.
• Regional Developments:
  • EU: The EU ETS is undergoing reforms, including the expansion to maritime transport and the introduction of a new ETS for buildings, road transport, and additional sectors (ETS 2).
  • Germany: Launched its national ETS in 2021, set to phase out by 2026 in favor of EU ETS 2.
  • Canada: Developing a federal cap-and-trade system for upstream oil, gas, and LNG production, with the first compliance phase expected in 2030.
  • United States: Oregon reinstated its ETS after it was invalidated in 2023, and Colorado launched its system in 2024, with expansion planned for 2028.
  • United Kingdom: Reforms in 2024 include a 30% reduction in available allowances by 2030 and potential expansion to include waste incineration and energy from waste.
  • China: Expanding its national ETS to include cement, steel, and aluminum industries, with additional sectoral expansions in pilot provinces.
  • Other Jurisdictions: Austria, Switzerland, and Türkiye are also advancing their ETSs, with Austria planning to "opt in" to fuels used in agriculture and forestry, and Türkiye preparing for a pilot phase in 2026.

Key Information

• ETS Coverage: The global ETS coverage is expected to grow as more systems are implemented and existing ones evolve.
• Price Trends: While prices in major systems have declined, there is a continued shift toward auctioning as a more transparent and market-driven allocation method.
• International Cooperation: Initiatives such as the International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP), Global Carbon Pricing Challenge, and World Bank’s Partnership for Market Implementation are promoting cross-border collaboration and policy coordination.
• Future Outlook: ETSs are becoming more sophisticated, with a focus on intensity-based systems, hybrid models, and market stability mechanisms. The report emphasizes the need for international cooperation to ensure ETSs remain effective, resilient, and aligned with the global net-zero objective.

Conclusion

As ETSs continue to expand and evolve, the report highlights the need for greater ambition, policy coordination, and market innovation. The growing role of ETSs in carbon pricing, revenue recycling, and international cooperation is essential to achieving the ambitious climate targets set by the Paris Agreement. The just transition and public support for ETSs are also key considerations in their design and implementation, ensuring that they are equitable and politically sustainable.