【国际碳行动伙伴组织ICAP】2025年全球碳市场进展报告_272页_15mb

Emissions Trading Worldwide: Status Report 2025 Summary

Core Content

The International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) has released the Status Report 2025, highlighting the current state and future outlook of emissions trading systems (ETSs) globally. This report underscores the growing importance of ETSs in the transition to a net-zero future, while also identifying key challenges and opportunities for further development and integration.

Key Findings

• Global ETS Expansion: As of January 2025, 38 ETSs are in force, covering just over 10 GTCO₂e, or 19% of global GHG emissions. Another 20 systems are in various stages of development or consideration.
• Geographic Spread: ETSs span jurisdictions that collectively account for one-third of the global population and 58% of global GDP.
• G20 Participation: Seventeen G20 countries have either established or are planning an ETS, indicating a strong global trend.
• New Trends in ETS Design: Emerging economies are increasingly adopting intensity-based systems and hybrid approaches, integrating emissions trading with carbon taxes or crediting mechanisms.
• Asia-Pacific Progress:
  • India has introduced a baseline-and-credit system for energy-intensive industries and a carbon crediting mechanism.
  • China is expanding its national ETS beyond the power sector and exploring an absolute cap.
  • Indonesia has an operational intensity-based ETS for the power sector and is planning a "cap-tax-and-trade" hybrid system.
  • Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand are considering ETSs as part of their climate policy tools.
  • Vietnam and Türkiye are developing pilot ETSs for the near future.
• Latin America:
  • Brazil has laid the legal foundation for a federal ETS.
  • Chile is developing sectoral emissions limits and a pilot ETS for the energy sector.
  • Colombia has launched a public consultation on ETS regulations.
  • Mexico is transitioning its pilot ETS to full implementation.
  • Dominican Republic is exploring the feasibility of a pilot ETS for the first time.
• Developed Economies:
  • EU ETS is the largest system, with reforms in 2023 leading to a downward cap adjustment and the expansion to maritime transport and flights to/from outermost regions.
  • EU ETS 2 is in development for buildings, road transport, and other sectors, expected to be transposed into national laws by 2025.
  • Germany launched its national ETS in 2021, with a fixed price until 2025, transitioning to EU ETS 2 in 2027.
  • Canada has a federal backstop system in place since 2019, with plans for a federal cap-and-trade system for upstream oil, gas, and LNG production.
  • United States:
    • Oregon reinstated its ETS after it was invalidated in 2023.
    • Colorado launched its ETS in 2024, initially covering large manufacturers, with expansion planned for 2028.
    • New York State is developing economy-wide ETS program rules.
    • Maryland is considering establishing its own economy-wide ETS.
• Market Dynamics:
  • Price and Revenue Trends: 2024 saw decreased average prices in most major ETSs, with auction revenues declining for the first time after years of growth.
  • EU ETS prices dropped from record highs in 2023, while China and Korea ETSs remained relatively stable.
  • Auction Reforms: Jurisdictions are shifting from free allocation to auction-based models to enhance market efficiency and price signals.
  • EU ETS 2 and other newer systems are designed to require full purchase of allowances from the outset.
• Offsets and Credits:
  • Offsets and crediting mechanisms are becoming more prominent in ETS design, especially in new systems.
  • 24 out of 38 active ETSs allow for the use of carbon credits, with strict limits.
  • Emerging economies are incorporating domestic carbon credits to enhance the reach of ETS price signals.
• Challenges:
  • Carbon Leakage: Concerns about competitiveness are driving the development of border adjustment mechanisms like the EU CBAM and UK CBAM.
  • Market Fragmentation: The compliance-grade carbon credit market remains fragmented, with varying eligibility criteria and standards.
  • Public Acceptability: Governments are addressing public concerns through revenue recycling and just transition strategies.
• Future Outlook:
  • The report emphasizes the need for increased international collaboration to align ETSs and prevent market fragmentation.
  • ETSs are expected to play a crucial role in achieving net-zero targets by providing price signals and fostering innovation.
  • The integration of ETSs with other climate policies, such as carbon taxes and crediting mechanisms, is likely to continue.

Conclusion

As new systems emerge and existing ones evolve, closer cooperation will be essential to ensure that carbon markets remain effective, resilient, and aligned with the overarching goal of a net-zero future. The report calls for more ambitious policies, stronger international alignment, and the continued refinement of ETS frameworks to support deeper decarbonization.