20241202-正信期货-煤焦周度报告_等待政策落地_双焦继续下跌空间或有限_38页_2mb

煤焦周度报告 20241202：等待政策落地，双焦继续下跌空间或有限

主要观点
上周碳元素较铁元素偏弱，基本面格局制约继续下跌空间。焦炭、焦煤主力合约双双下跌，策略上短期观望，等待政策落地；长期关注反弹做空机会。

焦炭板块

价格与供需分析

• 焦价盘面震荡走弱，现货暂稳但有降价预期。
• 焦企盈利维持高位，供应端持续宽松。
• 需求受高炉检修影响，铁水下降导致需求减弱。
• 港口库存下降，钢厂略有补库，总库存有所增加。

库存与利润

• 港口库存环比下降，钢厂和焦企小幅累库。
• 期货与现货基差收敛，吨焦盈利较上周略有增长。

投资策略

短期暂观望，等待政策落地，关注长期反弹做空机会。建议跟踪库存与需求恢复节奏变化。

焦煤板块

价格与供需分析

• 焦煤价格震荡走弱，蒙煤通关维持高位，进口补充充足。
• 价格现货成交清淡，期货贴水扩大。
• 供应端煤矿生产正常，洗煤厂开工率稳定，进口炼焦煤1-10月累计同比增幅显著。

库存与估值

• 总库存继续增加，下游补库为主，上游库存小幅下降。
• 焦煤估值盘面利润收缩，基差扩大，跨期价差维持震荡。

投资策略

一致建议观望，焦煤短期延续区间震荡，需等待政策落地信号。

英文内容总结

Personal Resignation Message
Hero Chen
As of today, I formally notify the team that I am resigning from the company effective in April. My final day of work will be on April 15th, to ensure a smooth handover.
During my years with the company, I have been fortunate to work under experienced leaders and learn from outstanding colleagues. I am truly grateful for all the assistance, cooperation, and guidance from each of you.

This decision has not been made lightly, as the company and my supervisors have always been supportive and fair to every employee. I hope this change will not affect business operations. My work交接 period will be from this week until April 12th.

I deeply appreciate the opportunities and respect I have received during my time here and wish the company continued success and growth. I sincerely thank my supervisor and colleagues for our friendship and enduring memories.

Best regards,

Hero Chen