20180924-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_259kb

报告摘要

Market Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, including key market indicators, technical analysis, IPO information, company performance, and economic calendar events. It highlights the recent upward trend in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), driven by positive sentiment from the U.S. and Chinese markets, and a weak U.S. dollar index. It also discusses the performance of specific stocks and market dynamics such as short selling and trading volumes.

Main Market Indicators

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

21 Sep: Closed at 27,953, up 475 points.
20 Sep: Closed at 27,477, up 70 points.
19 Sep: Closed at 27,407, up 322 points.
Market Turnover (mn): Increased to 130,600 on 21 Sep.
Stock Advances/Declines:
- 21 Sep: 1,179 advances; 569 declines.
- 20 Sep: 843 advances; 792 declines.
- 19 Sep: 1,167 advances; 508 declines.
HSI Turn.($bn): Increased to 55.32 on 21 Sep.
HSCEI:
- 21 Sep: Closed at 11,027, up 234 points.
- 20 Sep: Closed at 10,792, up 50 points.
- 19 Sep: Closed at 10,741, up 184 points.
HSCEI Turn.($bn): Increased to 42.02 on 21 Sep.

Technical Analysis of HSI

10-day MA: 27,054
50-day MA: 27,830
250-day MA: 29,563
14-day RSI: 56.6
Primary Resistance: 28,000
Primary Support: 27,425

Technical Analysis of HSCEI

10-day MA: 10,566
50-day MA: 10,758
250-day MA: 11,710
14-day RSI: 60.7
Primary Resistance: 11,245
Primary Support: 10,758

Key Stock Performance

Prinx Chengshan [1809.HK] (IPO Brief)

Industry Sector: Manufacturing
Issue Price (HK$): 5.89-7.5
Total Share Offer Size (HK$ Mn): 795-1012.5
Expected P/E (X): 18.9-24.1
Sponsor: BOC International
Dealing Period: 9-Oct
Performance:
- Revenue grew at a CAGR of 17.2% from 2015 to 2017.
- Ranked 5th among domestic All Steel Radial Tires manufacturers in 2017.
- Products sold globally through over 400 distributors and direct sales to major vehicle manufacturers.
Valuation Concerns: Valuation is higher than peer Xingda, and cost pressures may affect profitability.
Recommendation: Neutral.

China Res Power (0836)

Closed Price: 14.16
Expected P/E (X): 9.9
Dividend Yield (%): 6.21
52-Week High/Low: 15.9 / 12.07
14-day RSI: 54
Performance:
- Total electricity consumption for the whole society increased by 8.8% YoY in September.
- Revenue from thermal power increased by 10.6% YoY to HK$31.018 billion.
- Revenue from renewable energy rose by 47.9% YoY to HK$5.355 billion.
- Profit attributable to shareholders increased by 59.6% YoY to HK$2.959 billion.
Capacity:
- As of 30 June 2018, total operational generation capacity: 36,917MW (80.8% coal-fired).
- Coal-fired power plants under construction: 4,014MW.
- Renewable energy capacity under construction: 1,725MW (wind), 119MW (photovoltaic), 107MW (hydro).
Future Outlook: Expected to strengthen future results due to renewable energy development and coal asset transfer.

Active Stocks and Short Selling

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

Market Closed

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

Market Closed

Ten Most Actively Traded Stocks

Stock Name	Code	Change	Closed Price	Turnover (Million)
TENCENT	700	3.15%	334.40	9972.4
PING AN	2318	1.74%	78.90	4451.1
CCB	939	3.14%	6.90	3372.3
MEITUAN-W	3690	-0.76%	72.10	3176.7
ICBC	1398	3.24%	5.74	2418.0
GEELY AUTO	175	10.98%	16.58	2328.6
AIA	1299	3.51%	67.80	2019.0
HKEX	388	1.78%	229.00	1769.7
CNOOC	883	-3.68%	14.14	1704.8
SUNNY OPTICAL	2382	-2.98%	92.70	1692.7

Ten Short Sell Stocks

Stock Name	Code	Short Sell (HK$)	Turnover (HK$)	Short Sell Ratio
PING AN	02318.HK	1.21B	4.45B	27.13%
TENCENT	00700.HK	979.18M	9.97B	9.82%
CCB	00939.HK	877.14M	3.37B	26.01%
SHENZHOU INTL	02313.HK	699.78M	1.41B	49.56%
AIA	01299.HK	656.95M	2.02B	32.54%
HSCEI ETF	02828.HK	647.56M	1.86B	34.88%
GALAXY ENT	00027.HK	560.25M	1.53B	36.61%
TRACKER FUND	02800.HK	554.19M	862.85M	64.23%
CSOP A50 ETF	02822.HK	521.28M	1.00B	52.00%
GEELY AUTO	00175.HK	410.14M	2.33B	17.61%

Economic Calendar Highlights

Mon: U.S. $200 billion Tariffs on Chinese Goods Start; China $60 billion Tariffs on American Goods Start; Market Close (Mid-Autumn Festival)
Tue: Hong Kong Market Close (The Day After Mid-Autumn Festival)
Wed: U.S. Aug. New Home Sales (631K); China Aug. Industrial Profit YoY (16.2%)
Thur: U.S. FOMC Rate Decision (2.00-2.25%); U.S. Q2 Annualized GDP QoQ (4.3%); U.S. Q2 Personal Consumption (3.8%); U.S. Aug. Durable Goods Order (1.7%); U.S. Initial Jobless Claim (Till Sep 22); U.S. Continuing Jobless Claim (Till Sep 15)
Fri: U.S. Aug. Core PCE YoY (2.0%); Euro Zone Sep. Core CPI YoY (1.0%); China Sep. Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (50.6%)

Key Information

Market Outlook: HSI is expected to trade between 27,600-28,000.
Trade Relations: Concerns about U.S.-China trade tensions have eased.
Investor Focus: The FOMC meeting and Italy's budget presentation are key events this week.
Sector Performance: Auto sector saw significant gains, with Geely Auto rising 11.0%.
Currency Movement: RMB rose, while oil prices declined, favoring China airlines.
Valuation: Prinx Chengshan's valuation is higher than its peer, leading to a neutral recommendation.
Renewable Energy: China Res Power is strengthening its renewable energy development, which is expected to improve future performance.

Disclaimer

The information and opinions in this report are those of KGI Asia Ltd. internal research activity. KGI Asia Ltd. does not make any representation or warranty regarding the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information. The report is for informational purposes only and may not be reproduced or published without prior written consent.

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