20180604-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_220kb

Market Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Hong Kong stock market performance, technical indicators, key stock updates, and upcoming economic events. It includes data on the Hang Seng Index (HSI), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), and their respective futures, as well as information on Tencent (700), New World Dev (0017), and trading statistics related to the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect (SH-HK Connect and SZ-HK Connect). It also highlights the top actively traded stocks and short sell statistics, alongside the economic calendar for the week.

Main Market Indicators

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• 1 Jun: 30,492 (up +24 points)
• 31 May: 30,468 (up +411 points)
• 30 May: 30,056 (down -427 points)
• Market Turnover (mn): 120,700 (1 Jun), 203,800 (31 May), 109,800 (30 May)
• HSI Turn.($bn): 50.48 (1 Jun), 72.78 (31 May), 45.62 (30 May)
• Resistance: 31,000
• Support: 30,000

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

• 1 Jun: 12,020 (up +41 points)
• 31 May: 11,978 (up +209 points)
• 30 May: 11,769 (down -189 points)
• Market Turnover (mn): 167,189 (HSI Jun), 89,056 (HSCEI Jun), 175,640 (HSCEI 31 May), 143,276 (HSCEI 30 May)
• HSCEI Turn.($bn): 49.62 (1 Jun), 62.36 (31 May), 38.06 (30 May)

Technical Analysis

• HSI:
  • 10-day MA: 30,659
  • 50-day MA: 30,592
  • 250-day MA: 29,035
  • 14-day RSI: 47.8
  • Resistance: 31,000
  • Support: 30,000
• HSCEI:
  • 10-day MA: 12,084
  • 50-day MA: 12,169
  • 250-day MA: 11,645
  • 14-day RSI: 46.3
  • Resistance: 12,430
  • Support: 11,723

Key Stock Updates

Tencent (700)

• Performance: Share price rose 1.2% on 1 Jun, trading at 404.00 HKD
• P/E Ratio: 32.9x (12 months forward)
• Dividend Yield: 0.2%
• 52 Week High/Low: 475.72 / 259.52
• 14-day RSI: 51.1
• Analyst View: Despite underperforming its US peers and Alibaba this year, strong performance in the US ADR market and positive sentiment from the tech sector may drive short-term speculative buying. Target price is 430 HKD.

New World Dev (0017)

• Sales Performance: Contracted sales reached 15.2B HKD, 52% higher than target
• Units to be Launched: 2,542 units
• GFA in Hong Kong: 10,664,000 sq ft
• Land Bank: 17 sq ft/million, third highest among local developers
• Projects:
  • Fleur Pavilia in North Point
  • Commercial site at Hong Kong International Airport
  • Victoria Dockside (opening in 2019)
• P/B Ratio: 0.6X (lowest among main developers)
• Dividend Yield: 4.0%
• Analyst View: Recommend accumulating when price consolidates.

Trading Statistics

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

• TENCENT: Buy trades 310,620,060, Sell trades 240,306,880, Turnover 550,926,940
• ICBC: Buy trades 2,449,980, Sell trades 428,047,120, Turnover 430,497,100
• CHINA LIFE: Buy trades 254,853,250, Sell trades 11,615,700, Turnover 266,468,950
• CCB: Buy trades 420,360, Sell trades 264,015,310, Turnover 264,435,670
• CM BANK: Buy trades 83,236,875, Sell trades 153,125,350, Turnover 236,362,225
• CSPC PHARMA: Buy trades 71,094,300, Sell trades 120,566,000, Turnover 191,660,300
• HUANENG POWER: Buy trades 149,833,920, Sell trades 38,262,620, Turnover 188,096,540
• SINOPEC CORP: Buy trades 76,733,100, Sell trades 96,466,660, Turnover 173,199,760
• BAIYUNSHAN PH: Buy trades 101,728,400, Sell trades 56,720,700, Turnover 158,449,100
• AAC TECH: Buy trades 3,476,350, Sell trades 154,026,550, Turnover 157,502,900

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

• TENCENT: Buy trades 51,828,420, Sell trades 185,153,560, Turnover 236,981,980
• KINGDEE INT'L: Buy trades 56,996,540, Sell trades 118,874,320, Turnover 175,870,860
• GENSCRIPT BIO: Buy trades 51,773,200, Sell trades 96,787,800, Turnover 148,561,000
• CSPC PHARMA: Buy trades 9,105,500, Sell trades 135,116,700, Turnover 144,222,200
• FUTURE LAND: Buy trades 27,511,800, Sell trades 95,619,180, Turnover 123,130,980
• WUXI BIO: Buy trades 71,166,575, Sell trades 24,951,925, Turnover 96,118,500
• MENGNIU DAIRY: Buy trades 13,691,900, Sell trades 69,246,400, Turnover 82,938,300
• CHINASOFT INT'L: Buy trades 12,467,320, Sell trades 63,810,280, Turnover 76,277,600
• MAPLELEAF EDU: Buy trades 39,012,960, Sell trades 31,072,360, Turnover 70,085,320
• CHINA SOUTH AIR: Buy trades 52,363,240, Sell trades 15,891,940, Turnover 68,255,180

Short Sell Statistics

• CSPC PHARMA: Short Sell 1.56B HKD, Turnover 3.73B HKD, Short Sell Ratio 41.92%
• TENCENT: Short Sell 1.16B HKD, Turnover 9.30B HKD, Short Sell Ratio 12.42%
• HSCEI ETF: Short Sell 813.33M HKD, Turnover 1.62B HKD, Short Sell Ratio 50.25%
• PING AN: Short Sell 758.17M HKD, Turnover 3.42B HKD, Short Sell Ratio 22.14%
• CNOOC: Short Sell 534.74M HKD, Turnover 2.58B HKD, Short Sell Ratio 20.75%
• CCB: Short Sell 491.36M HKD, Turnover 3.22B HKD, Short Sell Ratio 15.24%
• CSOP A50 ETF: Short Sell 413.68M HKD, Turnover 506.92M HKD, Short Sell Ratio 81.61%
• SANDS CHINA LTD: Short Sell 368.65M HKD, Turnover 1.27B HKD, Short Sell Ratio 28.98%
• TRACKER FUND: Short Sell 335.28M HKD, Turnover 441.98M HKD, Short Sell Ratio 75.86%
• SAMSONITE: Short Sell 293.72M HKD, Turnover 2.94B HKD, Short Sell Ratio 10.00%

Economic Calendar Highlights

• Mon: US Apr. Factory Orders (-0.4%), Apr. Durable Goods Order; Euro Zone Apr. PPI YoY (2.1%)
• Tue: Euro Zone Apr. Retail Sales YoY (0.8%); Hong Kong Want Want China(151) Result
• Wed: US Apr. Trade Balance (51.5B); Hong Kong Link REIT(823) Annual Result
• Thu: US Apr. Initial Jobless Claim (Till Jun 2); Apr. Continuing Jobless Claim (Till May 26); Euro Zone Q1 GDP SA YoY; China May. Foreign Reserve (USD) (3124.85B)
• Fri: Canada G7 Summit (Till Jun 9); China May. Trade Balance (USD) (28.78B); May. Exports YoY (USD) (12.9%); May. Imports YoY (USD) (21.5%)
• Sat: China May. CPI YoY (1.8%); May. PPI YoY (3.4%)

Key Notes

• The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade within the range of 30,400-31,000.
• Strong US tech performance and Alibaba's rally support Tencent's share price in the US ADR market.
• MSCI's inclusion of A shares may affect Tencent's weighting, but the impact has been mitigated.
• New World Dev's contracted sales exceeded expectations, and its land bank provides cost advantages.
• The stock market is likely to open higher today due to improved sentiment from US data and reduced trade war fears.
• Investors should monitor the G7 meeting for potential trade policy changes.