20180601-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_215kb

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

• The HSI closed at 30,468, up 411 points, showing a rebound.
• HSCEI closed at 11,978, up 209 points, indicating positive momentum.
• Market turnover for HSI was HK$72.78 billion, showing increased activity.
• HSI and HSCEI both showed mixed performance across the three days, with HSI rebounding on 31 May but still below key support levels.

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• Technical Indicators:
  • 10-day MA: 30,704
  • 50-day MA: 30,613
  • 250-day MA: 29,015
  • 14-day RSI: 47.4
• Support and Resistance:
  • Initial support: 30,000
  • Next support: 29,519
  • First resistance: 30,613 (50-day MA)
  • Second resistance: 31,000
• Candlestick Pattern: A white candlestick on 31 May, indicating a rebound, but still below all support levels.
• MACD: Negative histogram and MACD line below zero, suggesting a weakness trend that has not reversed.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

• Technical Indicators:
  • 10-day MA: 12,110
  • 50-day MA: 12,182
  • 250-day MA: 11,639
  • 14-day RSI: 45.0
• Support and Resistance:
  • Initial support: 11,769
  • First resistance: 12,053
  • Second resistance: 12,182 (50-day MA)
• Performance: HSCEI showed a rebound on 31 May, but the overall trend remains mixed.

HSI Futures

• HSI Jun futures closed at 30,497, up 633 points, indicating a positive trend.
• Volume decreased slightly, while open interests increased, suggesting more long positions.
• HSI Jul futures showed a small increase, but the volume and open interests suggest a lack of strong momentum.

HSCEI Futures

• HSCEI Jun futures closed at 11,930, up 268 points.
• Volume and open interests show a mixed trend, with a sharp increase in volume on 29 May.
• Jul futures showed a slight increase, but volume and open interests suggest limited momentum.

Key Market Events and Sentiment

• The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade within a range of 30,300-30,700 today.
• The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in May, exceeding expectations and indicating a stronger manufacturing sector.
• Fading fears of Italy's political instability contributed to the rebound in the Hong Kong market.
• The U.S. imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, reigniting trade war concerns, but Italy's coalition government deal offset some of the negative sentiment.
• U.S. stock markets fell, with the Dow and Nasdaq closing lower, while the Euro rebounded and the U.S. dollar index declined.

Retail Sales and Investment Outlook

• Hong Kong April retail sales rose 12.3% year-on-year, marking 14 consecutive months of growth.
• Jewelry sales grew by 24.6%, while home appliance sales increased by 17.7%.
• Major retail stocks like Sa Sa (0178), Luk Fook (0590), and Chow Tai Fook (1929) saw gains and may attract speculative interest.
• Luk Fook (0590) has a P/E ratio of 15.0, which is relatively attractive compared to its peers.
• The Hang Seng Index is expected to continue range trading today, with investors focusing on non-farm payroll data and the Commerce Secretary Ross visit to China.

IPO Briefs

Huifu Payment (1806)

• Industry: Payment
• Issue Price (HK$): 6.5-8.5
• Total Share Offer Size (HK$ bn): 1.46-1.92
• Historical P/E: 50.0-65.4
• Sponsor: CLSA, J.P. Morgan
• Dealing Period: 15-June
• Business: Focuses on merchant payment services and fintech enabling services.
• Revenue Growth: 97% in FY16, 57.7% in FY17, and continued growth in 1Q18.
• Gross Margin: Declined to 32.8% in FY17 from 46.5% in FY15.
• Market Share: 2.5% in the mobile POS and mobile payment market, behind Alipay and Tenpay (86.8% combined market share).
• Recommendation: "Subscribe" due to strong market growth potential and net profit.

Republic Healthcare Limited (8357)

• Industry: Healthcare
• Issue Price (HK$): 0.5-0.6
• Total Share Offer Size (HK$ mn): 65-78
• Historical P/E: 22.1-26.5
• Sponsor: Titan
• Dealing Period: 15-June
• Operations: Provides primary healthcare and medical aesthetics services in Singapore.
• Revenue Mix: Consultation (10.8%), Medical Investigation (29%), Treatment (54.8%).
• Growth Plans: Establish five new DTAP Clinics and two new SA Clinics to expand the network.
• Financial Health: Positive operating cash flow, improved gearing ratio (33.1% in 2017), and increased return on equity (118.2%).

Stock Trading Activity

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

Short Sell Stocks

Economic Calendars

Disclaimer

• The information and opinions in this report are based on internal research and are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
• No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the use of this report.
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