20180710-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_223kb

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) showed positive movements in the week of July 5-9, 2018. The HSI closed at 28,688, up 372 points from the previous day, while the HSCEI closed at 10,748, up 145 points. Market turnover for the HSI was HK$98.7 billion on July 9, with significant activity in key stocks like Tencent and Xiaomi.

Technical Analysis

• HSI Technical Indicators: The index gapped up above the 10-day SMA and closed with a white candlestick, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD histogram remained in negative territory but showed a narrowing spread, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. Key support levels are at 28,000 and 27,500, while resistance is at 29,000 and 250-day SMA.
• HSCEI Technical Indicators: The index also showed a positive movement, with the 10-day SMA at 10,748 and the 50-day SMA at 11,840. The 14-day RSI was at 31.0, indicating a weakly bullish trend. Key support is at 10,500 and resistance at 11,000.

Company Highlights

Anhui Conch (0914)

• Anhui Conch reported a 80-100% increase in net profit for the first half of 2018, reaching RMB12.1-13.4 billion.
• 2Q18 net profit rose 60-90% year-over-year to RMB7.31-8.66 billion.
• The company's cement prices remained firm despite seasonal factors, due to supply coordination and reduced demand.
• The company is expected to achieve full-year net profit exceeding RMB24 billion, a 50% increase from the previous year.
• Current valuation is at 8x prospective P/E, close to China Resources Cement (1313). However, concerns over fixed asset investment slowdown and supply coordination sustainability remain.

E-House (2048) IPO Brief

• E-House is a real estate transaction service provider, primarily offering agency services in the primary market.
• During the Track Record Period, real estate agency services accounted for over 80% of total revenue.
• The company served all Top 100 Real Estate Developers in China, with 25 of them being shareholders.
• The top three developers (Country Garden, Vanke, Evergrande) own 15% equity interest each.
• The IPO price ranged from HK$14.38 to HK$17.68, with a historical P/E ratio of 23.2x to 28.6x.
• Despite stable revenue growth, the company faces policy risks, including tighter loan approvals for developers and potential tightening of property market controls. Analysts rate it as Neutral.

Stock Market Activity

Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

• ICBC: Turnover of 479,205,090 (RMB)
• TENCENT: Turnover of 252,348,300 (RMB)
• CCB: Turnover of 303,746,530 (RMB)
• BANK OF CHINA: Turnover of 184,674,930 (RMB)
• GEELY AUTO: Turnover of 162,475,960 (RMB)
• ABC: Turnover of 213,537,830 (RMB)
• CPIC: Turnover of 169,312,050 (RMB)
• BAIYUNSHAN PH: Turnover of 86,694,500 (RMB)
• CM BANK: Turnover of 70,572,225 (RMB)
• BANKCOMM: Turnover of 27,653,060 (RMB)

Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

• TENCENT: Turnover of 241,486,460 (RMB)
• GEELY AUTO: Turnover of 157,321,460 (RMB)
• KINGDEE INT'L: Turnover of 145,284,960 (RMB)
• SUNAC: Turnover of 97,243,050 (RMB)
• GENSCRIPT BIO: Turnover of 86,472,460 (RMB)
• SUNNY OPTICAL: Turnover of 85,538,640 (RMB)
• COUNTRY GARDEN: Turnover of 85,003,280 (RMB)
• GOLDWIND: Turnover of 80,674,084 (RMB)
• ZTE: Turnover of 78,934,712 (RMB)
• TSINGTAO BREW: Turnover of 73,265,800 (RMB)

Top Short Sell Stocks

• TENCENT: Short sell of 855.24M, short sell ratio of 11.77%
• PING AN: Short sell of 692.91M, short sell ratio of 18.54%
• TRACKER FUND: Short sell of 660.74M, short sell ratio of 66.59%
• XIAOMI-W: Short sell of 303.32M, short sell ratio of 3.95%
• CCB: Short sell of 288.58M, short sell ratio of 13.66%
• CAM CSI300: Short sell of 230.43M, short sell ratio of 46.98%
• CSOP A50 ETF: Short sell of 225.62M, short sell ratio of 52.60%
• HSCEI ETF: Short sell of 216.98M, short sell ratio of 33.51%
• EVERGRANDE: Short sell of 215.90M, short sell ratio of 21.91%
• ICBC: Short sell of 190.08M, short sell ratio of 9.27%

Economic Calendars

Key economic events for the week of July 5-9, 2018, include:

• China:

  • Jun. Foreign Reserve (announced between Jul 8 and Jul 9): Expected at 3103.00B, prior at 3100.62B
  • Jun. PPI YoY: Expected at 4.4%, prior at 4.1%
  • Jun. CPI YoY: Expected at 2.0%, prior at 1.8%
  • Jun. Aggregate Financing CNY (announced between Jul 9 and Jul 15): Expected at 1315.0B, prior at 760.8B
  • Jun. New Yuan Loans CNY: Expected at 1535.0B, prior at 1150.0B
  • Jun. Trade Balance (announced between Jul 12 and Jul 13): Expected at 28.30B, prior at 24.92B
  • Jun. Exports YoY (announced between Jul 12 and Jul 13): Expected at 10.0%, prior at 12.6%
  • Jun. Imports YoY (announced between Jul 12 and Jul 13): Expected at 20.7%, prior at 26.0%

• US:

  • Jun. PPI YoY: Expected at 3.0%, prior at 3.1%
  • Initial Jobless Claim (Till Jul 7): Expected, prior not available
  • Continuing Jobless Claim (Till Jun 30): Expected, prior not available
  • Jun. CPI YoY: Expected at 2.9%, prior at 2.8%

• Euro Zone:

  • May. Industrial Production SA MoM: Expected, prior at -0.9%

Disclaimer

The information and opinions in this report are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities. KGI Asia Ltd. does not make any representation or warranty regarding the accuracy, completeness, or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this report. The report is subject to change without notice, and no person accepts any liability for any loss arising from its use.