2010年-世界发展银行全球_Moldova___Climate_Change_and_Agriculture_Country_Note_16页_1mb

Summary of the Republic of Moldova Country Note on Climate Change and Agriculture

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the impact of climate change on agriculture in Moldova, highlighting the vulnerability of the sector, the current state of agricultural production, and potential adaptation measures. It is part of a World Bank regional initiative aimed at integrating climate change adaptation into agricultural policies and investments in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region.

Main Points

Importance of Agriculture in Moldova

• Agriculture is a major contributor to Moldova's economy, accounting for 11% of GDP and 41% of employment.
• It plays a crucial role in rural livelihoods, food security, and exports.
• 90.8% of the rural population earns less than $5 per day, making them highly vulnerable to climate change.

Climate Change Exposure and Risk

• Moldova has experienced increased temperatures, moisture deficits, and extreme weather events (droughts, floods, frosts).
• Projections indicate:
  • A 3.4°C increase in mean annual temperature by 2040-69.
  • A 6.8% decline in mean annual rainfall by 2040-69, with summer and autumn rainfall decreasing by 19.3% and 16%, respectively.
  • A significant rise in the frequency and severity of droughts, with the probability of catastrophic droughts increasing from 1 in 9 years to almost 1 in 2 years.
  • A shift toward dry sub-humid or semi-arid conditions, increasing the risk of agricultural production.

Agricultural Vulnerability

• Moldova is more vulnerable than the ECA average in three key areas:
  • Soil degradation (75% of land is affected).
  • High percentage of population employed in agriculture (41%).
  • High rural poverty (rural population living on less than $5 per day).
• The sector's low productivity and lack of adaptive capacity contribute to this vulnerability.

Agricultural Production Overview

• Arable land covers 75% of the country, especially in the Northern Dniester River Valley.
• Major annual crops include maize, wheat, sunflowers, and barley.
• Perennial crops include grapes and fruit trees.
• 90% of production is rain-fed, making it highly susceptible to climate variability.

Economic Impacts of Agriculture

• Agriculture's contribution to GDP has declined from 33% in 1995 to 11% in 2009.
• When combined with agro-processing, the sector accounts for 30% of GDP, 60% of exports, and 50% of industrial output.
• Grapes and apples contribute the most to the average value of agricultural production due to higher market prices.

Environmental Impacts of Agriculture

• Soil degradation and water pollution from agrochemicals and poor nutrient management are major environmental issues.
• Eutrophication of water catchments threatens aquatic ecosystems and human health.
• Groundwater contamination is a serious concern, with 76% of monitored sites failing hygiene standards in 2006.

Climate Projections

• Climate models suggest Moldova will become hotter and drier, with:
  • Temperature increases of 1.7°C by 2010-39, 3.4°C by 2040-69, and 5.4°C by 2070-99.
  • Annual precipitation is projected to decline by 9mm by 2010-39, 38mm by 2040-69, and 64mm by 2070-99.
• Summer and autumn rainfall will decrease by 19.3% and 16%, respectively, increasing the risk of drought.

Adaptation Measures

• Potential adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector include:
  • Improving irrigation systems.
  • Promoting sustainable land management.
  • Enhancing soil conservation.
  • Introducing drought-resistant crop varieties.
  • Strengthening agro-environmental policies.
• For the livestock sector, suggested measures include:
  • Replacing low productivity breeds with higher-yielding ones.
  • Improving forage supply.
  • Implementing sustainable manure management.
  • Maintaining and improving the genetic pool.
  • Upgrading small and medium farms.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

• Climate change will increase the risk of crop yield declines, particularly for maize and wheat.
• Droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe, causing significant economic losses.
• Reduced frost days could allow for longer growing seasons, offering opportunities for crop diversification and new varieties.

Policy and Institutional Context

• The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry (MAFI) is a key stakeholder in climate change adaptation.
• The National Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop was held in Chisinau in 2009.
• Policy development is critical to address the adaptation deficit and improve agricultural resilience.

Conclusion

Moldova's agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its climate sensitivity, low productivity, and limited adaptive capacity. The country's high poverty levels, extensive rain-fed farming, and soil degradation further increase this vulnerability. While climate change poses serious risks, it also presents opportunities for crop diversification and improved production systems. To address these challenges, policy and institutional reforms are essential, including investment in irrigation, sustainable land management, and enhanced support for farmers. The World Bank and local stakeholders have emphasized the need for proactive adaptation strategies to safeguard rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity in the face of a changing climate.