2012年-世界发展银行全球_Georgia___Climate_Change_and_Agriculture_Country_Note_20页_1mb

Georgia: Climate Change and Agriculture Country Note Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the impact of climate change on Georgia's agriculture sector, highlighting the country's vulnerability, current challenges, and potential adaptation strategies. It is part of a regional initiative to reduce vulnerability to climate change in Southern Caucasus agricultural systems.

Key Information

• Agriculture's Role: Agriculture is a central sector in Georgia, contributing significantly to employment, GDP, and food security. In 2010, it accounted for 8% of GDP and 52.3% of employment.
• Population and Poverty: Approximately 9.7% of the population lives under the national poverty line, and 47% reside in rural areas, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change.
• Climate Vulnerability: Georgia is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its mountainous terrain, diverse climates, and existing water shortages. It is also prone to natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, and landslides.
• Climate Projections: By the end of the century, Georgia is expected to experience:
  • A mean annual temperature increase of 3.5°C in West Georgia and 4.1°C in East Georgia.
  • A 6% decrease in precipitation in West Georgia and 14% in East Georgia.
  • Reductions in streamflow of 26–35% in the Alazani (Ganikh) Basin and 9–11% in the Khrami-Debed Basin by 2100.
  • Increased degradation of steppe ecosystems, upward shift of forests, expansion of invasive species, and more frequent extreme weather events.
• Environmental Issues: Soil degradation, waterlogging, salinization, and erosion are major environmental concerns. Georgia's soil fertility has been negatively impacted, with 20–40% of land affected by salinization.
• Economic Impact: Agricultural GDP increased by 35% from 2000 to 2010, but its share of total GDP fell from 22% to 8% due to economic diversification. The sector is inefficient, with labor productivity only half of the national average.
• Climate Context: Georgia has diverse climate zones, from humid subtropical in the west to dry subtropical in the east. Historical trends show increasing temperatures and precipitation in both regions, with significant changes observed between the periods 1955–1970 and 1990–2005.
• Adaptation Challenges: The sector faces an adaptation deficit due to low productivity, poor market systems, lack of access to finance, and unsustainable practices. These factors limit the ability of farmers to respond to climate change.
• Adaptation Measures: Georgia is implementing measures such as increasing seed distribution, improving storage infrastructure, and enhancing the agricultural budget to support adaptation.
• International Engagement: Georgia has a partnership with the EU through the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA), which includes cooperation in trade, investment, and economic development.

Main Points

• Vulnerability: Georgia's agriculture is highly climate-sensitive, with 52.3% of employment in the sector and 9.7% of the population living in poverty.
• Climate Impacts: The country is projected to experience significant temperature increases and precipitation decreases, which will reduce moisture availability and increase the risk of pests and diseases.
• Environmental Degradation: Soil erosion, salinization, and waterlogging are major issues affecting agricultural land, reducing productivity and sustainability.
• Economic Trends: While agriculture has grown in value, its share of GDP has declined, indicating a shift in the economy. The sector is inefficient and requires investment and reform.
• Adaptation Needs: The adaptation deficit is a critical issue, requiring improvements in market systems, access to finance, and sustainable land management.
• Policy and Institutional Context: The Georgian Ministry of Agriculture and EU cooperation play key roles in addressing climate change in agriculture. Policy development and institutional involvement are essential for effective adaptation.

Conclusion

Climate change poses significant risks to Georgia's agriculture sector, including reduced productivity, increased vulnerability of rural populations, and environmental degradation. However, it also presents opportunities for adaptation and development. Addressing the adaptation deficit and integrating climate change strategies into national policies will be crucial for the resilience of Georgia's agricultural systems.