2009年-世界发展银行全球_Paraguay_-_Country_Note_on_Climate_Change_Aspects_in_Agriculture_8页_2mb

Summary of Paraguay's Climate Change and Agriculture Context

Core Content

Paraguay is a country in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) where agriculture plays a significant role in the economy and is also a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The country has submitted one National Communication to the UNFCCC and is in the process of developing a second. Agriculture, particularly livestock and land use change and forestry (LUCF), is central to both GHG emissions and economic activity in Paraguay.

Main Points

1. Economic and Environmental Context

• Agriculture's Role in the Economy: Approximately 53% of Paraguay's land is used for agriculture, with 44% for pasture and 9% for cultivation. Forestry occupies 40% of the land, indicating the importance of forest resources.
• Emissions Contribution: Agriculture contributes significantly to GHG emissions, primarily through methane from livestock (97.5% of total methane emissions in 1994) and land use change and forestry (82% of total CO₂ emissions in 1994).
• Climate Vulnerability: Agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability, with issues such as land degradation, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather events posing risks to productivity and food security.

2. Policy Context

• National Climate Change Program (PNCC): Established in 2001, the PNCC is responsible for evaluating and implementing actions linked to Paraguay's commitments under the UNFCCC.
• National Action Plan on Climate Change: Being developed, this plan aims to identify priority sectors, such as agriculture and forestry, and propose measures to reduce climate variability impacts and enhance adaptation and mitigation.
• National Communication: The first communication established a GHG inventory with 1994 as the base year, including mitigation and adaptation options. A second communication is in progress, incorporating a National Mitigation Program.

3. Institutional Context

• Ministry of Environment (SEAM): Acts as the national authority on climate change and oversees the implementation of international commitments. It is the Designated National Authority (DNA) and hosts the PNCC.
• Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG): Oversees livestock and forestry, with the National Forestry Service (SERNAP) managing forest resources and land not yet covered by forests.
• Inter-Sectoral Coordination: The National Climate Change Commission (CNCC) coordinates efforts across multiple sectors and institutions, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, private institutions, and civil society.

4. Mitigation Measures

• Forestry and Land Use Change: LUCF is responsible for 29.2% of GHG emissions in 1990 and 22% in 1994. Deforestation rates have been decreasing, but the law targeting the eastern region has shifted deforestation to the western Chaco region.
• Reforestation Initiatives: Several projects and laws have been introduced to promote reforestation, including the National Reforestation Plan, compensation regimes, and the "Model Forests" project. However, progress has been limited.
• Carbon Trading: Paraguay has one registered CDM project under afforestation/reforestation but no agricultural projects. The World Bank's BioCarbon Fund is exploring innovative approaches to account for agricultural soil carbon.

5. Adaptation Measures

• Land Management: The Soil Conservation Project introduced no-tillage practices, which are now used in 52% of mechanized agriculture. It is recommended to expand this to 80% of cropland to improve soil conservation.
• Water Use: Agriculture accounts for 71% of freshwater extraction, with only 2.1% of cropland under irrigation. This reliance on rainfall makes the sector vulnerable to climate variability.
• Sustainable Water Management: The Framework Program for Sustainable Management of Water Resources of the Plata Basin aims to assist Paraguay and neighboring countries in integrated water resource management and adaptation to climate change.

6. Social Aspects and Insurance

• Rural Population: Paraguay is one of the most rural countries in South America, with a high population growth rate and severe income inequality. The Gini coefficient in 2002 was 0.58, indicating high inequality.
• Poverty and Rural Development: Poverty has increased, with 32% of the population living below the poverty line by 2005, and 40.1% in rural areas. The PROPAIS program is the main social assistance initiative.
• Agricultural Insurance: Introduced in 2005, private insurance companies cover 36,000 hectares of cropland, with no government subsidies. Insurance covers drought, flood, frost, wind, snow, and hail for soybeans, corn, and wheat.

Key Information

• Climate Projections: Temperature is expected to rise by 0.4–6.2°C by 2100, depending on the scenario. Precipitation patterns are also expected to change, with some regions facing increased rainfall and others reduced.
• Vulnerability: Extreme weather events, land degradation, and climate variability threaten agricultural productivity and food security.
• Institutional Framework: The PNCC, CNCC, and SEAM are key institutions in managing climate change and agriculture in Paraguay.
• Policy Gaps: There is a lack of agricultural CDM projects and limited government support for insurance mechanisms.

Conclusion

Paraguay's agriculture is both a driver of economic activity and a significant source of GHG emissions, particularly methane from livestock and CO₂ from land use change and forestry. The country has made some progress in mitigating emissions through reforestation initiatives and has developed a framework for sustainable land and water management. However, there is a need for more robust adaptation strategies, improved insurance mechanisms, and greater investment in agricultural projects to address climate change effectively.