2010年-世界发展银行全球_Uzbekistan___Climate_Change_and_Agriculture_Country_Note_16页_1mb

Uzbekistan: Climate Change and Agriculture Country Note Summary

Core Content

This Country Note provides an overview of the impact of climate change on Uzbekistan's agricultural sector and outlines potential adaptation measures. It is part of a World Bank regional initiative aimed at enhancing climate change adaptation in agricultural systems across the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region. The Note highlights the vulnerability of Uzbekistan's agriculture to climate change and emphasizes the need for proactive adaptation strategies to ensure the sustainability and competitiveness of rural livelihoods.

Main Points

• Agriculture's Importance:
  Agriculture is a cornerstone of Uzbekistan's economy, employing 34% of the population and contributing 23% to GDP. It is crucial for rural livelihoods, food security, and exports, particularly cotton, which is the world's second-largest exporter.

• Climate Vulnerability:
  Uzbekistan has a highly variable and arid climate with increasing temperatures and extreme weather events. The country is projected to experience a 1.9–2.4°C rise in mean annual temperature by 2050, with the most significant warming in winter and spring. Precipitation is expected to increase by 15–18% by 2050, primarily in summer, but this will be offset by higher evapotranspiration rates, leading to a more arid environment.

• Water Deficit:
  The Aral Sea basin is expected to face worsening water deficits, with projections indicating an increase from 2km³ in 2005 to 11–13km³ in 2050. This is due to rising water demand and declining water withdrawals in both the Amu Darya and Syr Darya catchments.

• Agricultural Vulnerability:
  The agricultural sector is highly sensitive to climate changes, with rural populations being especially vulnerable. Factors such as low productivity, poor infrastructure, and limited access to finance contribute to an adaptation deficit, making it difficult to respond to climate challenges.

• Climate Projections:
  Climate models predict a significant increase in temperature across all seasons, with the greatest rise in winter. Summer precipitation is expected to increase initially but may decline by 2080. These changes will lead to a more arid production environment, increased pest and disease risks, and a longer growing season in northern areas.

• Environmental Impact:
  Poor water management and soil salinization have degraded the Aral Sea and surrounding areas. Over 51% of irrigated land is affected by salinization, with 4% being strongly saline. Soil erosion is also a major issue, particularly in irrigated and rain-fed areas, due to both natural and human factors.

• Adaptation Needs:
  To mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, Uzbekistan must focus on improving water-use efficiency, developing new crop varieties, enhancing irrigation systems, and strengthening institutional capacity. The country also needs to address the adaptation deficit to ensure sustainable agricultural production.

Key Information

• Population and Employment:

  • Total population: 27.6 million
  • 34% employed in agriculture
  • 60% of population lives in rural areas
  • 93% of rural population earns less than $5 per day

• Land Use:

  • Natural pastures: 40% of the country
  • Rain-fed and irrigated cropland: 12%
  • 85% of cropland is irrigated

• Major Crops:

  • Cotton and wheat are the primary crops, followed by fodder crops, grapes, apples, barley, tomatoes, potatoes, and rice.
  • Fruit and nut trees have potential for expansion due to favorable climatic conditions.

• Economic Contribution:

  • Agriculture contributes 23% to GDP and 40% of total exports.
  • Cotton is the main export crop, with Uzbekistan ranking second in global cotton exports.

• Climate Change Vulnerability Index:

  • Uzbekistan is classified as having a high vulnerability to climate change compared to other ECA countries.
  • Key drivers of vulnerability include social and productive structures, limited adaptive capacity, and high dependence on water resources.

• Water Resource Issues:

  • Annual cost of salinization: $1 billion
  • 51% of irrigated land is salinized, with 4% strongly saline
  • Water demand is projected to increase, while supply is expected to decrease, worsening the water deficit.

• Adaptation Measures:

  • Enhance water-use efficiency
  • Develop new crop varieties and improve cropping patterns
  • Improve irrigation systems and water management
  • Strengthen institutional capacity and policy frameworks

Conclusion

Uzbekistan's agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on irrigation, arid climate, and existing environmental degradation. While some changes may offer opportunities, such as a longer growing season, the overall impact is expected to be negative. A proactive adaptation strategy is essential to ensure the resilience, sustainability, and competitiveness of Uzbekistan's agricultural systems in the face of climate change.