2011年-世界发展银行全球_Albania___Climate_Change_and_Agriculture_Country_Note_16页_1mb

Summary of Albania's Climate Change and Agriculture Country Note

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the impact of climate change on Albania's agricultural sector, highlighting the vulnerability of the country's rural communities and the need for adaptation strategies. It is part of a World Bank regional program aimed at enhancing climate change adaptation in the ECA Region, with a focus on Albania.

Main Points

1. Agriculture's Role in Albania

• Agriculture is a crucial sector for employment, rural livelihoods, food security, and exports.
• Approximately 58% of the population is employed in agriculture, and 21% of GDP is derived from the sector.
• 73.2% of the rural population earns less than $5/day, emphasizing the sector's importance for poverty alleviation.

2. Climate Change Exposure and Risks

• Albania's climate is already experiencing increased temperatures, extreme hot days, and aridity.
• Projections indicate:
  • A 2°C increase in mean annual temperature by 2049.
  • An 8% decline in mean precipitation by 2049.
  • A 28% decline in annual water availability for crops by 2050.
  • An increase in heatwave duration by 20 days.
  • More consecutive dry days and fewer frost days.
• The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, especially due to soil degradation, low adaptive capacity, and high dependence on rain-fed systems.

3. Land Use and Climate Zones

• Albania is divided into three agro-ecological zones: Mountain, Hill, and Lowland.
• Mountain Zone: Steep terrain, cold winters, high precipitation (up to 3000mm/year), and frost days.
• Hill Zone: Moderate climate with 800mm/year of precipitation and a mix of field crops and fruit trees.
• Lowland Zone: Mild winters and warm summers, with good pedoclimatic conditions for cultivation but facing summer droughts and irrigation needs.

4. Agricultural Risks and Challenges

• Climate change threatens crop yields, livestock production, and water resources.
• Key Risks:
  • Changes in optimal farming conditions.
  • Decreased crop productivity.
  • Increased exposure to pests and diseases.
  • Reduced crop quality.
  • Drought and water scarcity.
  • Higher irrigation demands.
  • Soil erosion, salinization, and desertification.
  • Deterioration of livestock conditions.
  • Sea level rise (affecting coastal areas).
• Opportunities: None identified for the Southern Mediterranean zone, including Albania.

5. Adaptation Deficit

• Albania has a significant adaptation deficit, resulting in underperformance in agricultural productivity compared to neighboring countries.
• Factors contributing to the deficit include:
  • Poor agricultural education, extension, and research.
  • Inefficient water use.
  • Lack of pesticide regulation.
  • Abandoned farmland.
  • Illegal logging.
  • Poor soil management.
  • Limited access to finance.

6. Economic and Environmental Impacts

• Agriculture's contribution to GDP has declined from 56% in 1997 to 20.7% in 2007, but it remains a major employer.
• The livestock sector contributes over 50% of the total value of agricultural production.
• Environmental issues such as soil erosion, desertification, and poor land use exacerbate the vulnerability of the agricultural system.

7. Climate Projections and Implications

• Temperature increases are projected to be significant, especially during summer months, with a potential rise of 7.3°C by 2100.
• Precipitation declines are expected, with the greatest impact during the summer growing season.
• These changes will lead to increased irrigation needs, higher risk of drought, and greater exposure to pests and diseases.

8. Policy and Institutional Context

• The World Bank and the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection (MoAFCP) are collaborating on climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector.
• There is a need for policy development, institutional involvement, and awareness raising to support adaptation.
• Feedback from stakeholders has been integrated into this note to improve its relevance and utility.

9. Ways Forward

• The document emphasizes the importance of adaptation measures such as improved irrigation, crop rotation, and soil management.
• Strengthening institutional capacity and financial support are critical for effective adaptation.
• Investment in sustainable practices and policy frameworks are necessary to ensure the resilience of agricultural systems.

Key Information

• Agriculture is climate-sensitive, and climate change poses serious threats to crop and livestock production.
• Rain-fed agriculture dominates in Albania, making it highly vulnerable to precipitation variability and extreme weather events.
• Soil degradation, desertification, and poor land management further increase the vulnerability of the agricultural sector.
• Climate change projections indicate temperature increases and precipitation declines, especially in summer months, which will impact crop growth, water availability, and livestock health.
• The adaptation deficit is a major challenge, and policy and institutional reforms are essential for climate resilience in the agricultural sector.
• The livestock sector is particularly vulnerable due to fodder and forage production being affected by climate change.