2012年-世界发展银行全球_The_Republic_of_Armenia_Climate_Change_and_Agriculture_Country_Note_21页_1mb

Summary of the Country Note on Climate Change and Agriculture in Armenia

Core Content

This document outlines the vulnerability of Armenia's agriculture sector to climate change, emphasizing the country's high dependence on agriculture for employment, GDP, and food security. It also highlights the environmental and economic challenges associated with climate change and presents potential adaptation strategies.

Main Points

• Agricultural Importance: Agriculture accounts for 22% of Armenia's GDP and 44.2% of employment in 2008 and 2011, respectively. It is a key contributor to rural livelihoods and food security.
• Climate Vulnerability: Armenia is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its mountainous terrain, history of droughts, and uneven water distribution. The country has a high vulnerability index compared to other countries in the ECA region.
• Population and Poverty: 35.8% of Armenians live below the poverty line, and 36% of the population resides in rural areas, making the sector highly susceptible to climate-induced shocks.
• Climate Projections: By 2100, average temperatures are expected to increase by 4°C, and precipitation will decrease by 9%. River flows will drop by 24.4%, and snow cover will decrease by 20–40%. These changes will lead to increased moisture deficit, soil degradation, and higher exposure to pests and diseases.
• Land Use and Ecosystems: About 62% of the land is used for agriculture, with steppe being the most common ecosystem. Land degradation is a major issue, with 11% attributed to human activities, primarily agriculture.
• Historical Climate Trends: Over the past 80 years, Armenia's mean annual temperature has increased by 0.85°C, and annual precipitation has decreased by 6%. The frequency of extreme weather events has also increased.
• Economic and Environmental Impacts: Climate change is expected to reduce agricultural yields by 8–14% by 2030 without adaptation. Water scarcity and irrigation inefficiencies are significant threats to the sector. Economic losses from climate-related events have been substantial, with droughts, frosts, and hailstorms causing over 100 million USD in losses between 2000 and 2005.
• Adaptation Deficit: The agricultural sector faces a low adaptive capacity, contributing to its vulnerability. Factors such as inadequate financial support, poor management practices, and limited access to resources hinder adaptation efforts.
• Policy and Institutional Context: The document outlines the policy and institutional framework in place to address climate change in agriculture, including agricultural subsidies, irrigation support, and international cooperation with the EU.
• Opportunities and Risks: While climate change poses significant risks, it may also present opportunities such as expanding pasture areas due to a longer growing season and enhancing fruit production in foothill regions with increased temperatures and stable precipitation.

Key Information

• Climate Change Exposure:
  • Temperature increases: 1°C by 2030, 2°C by 2070, and 4°C by 2100.
  • Precipitation decreases: 3% by 2030, 6% by 2070, and 9% by 2100.
  • River flow decreases: 6.7% by 2030, 14.5% by 2070, and 24.4% by 2100.
  • Snow cover decreases: 7% by 2030, 16–20% by 2070, and 20–40% by 2100.
• Agricultural Risks:
  • Moisture deficit during critical crop and pasture growth periods.
  • Increased exposure to pests and diseases due to higher temperatures.
  • Soil erosion and salinization due to climate and irrigation practices.
  • Water-induced erosion from heavy rains and floods.
• Potential Adaptation Measures:
  • Improve irrigation efficiency.
  • Enhance soil management and farming practices.
  • Increase access to credit and financial support.
  • Promote use of high-quality seeds.
  • Develop climate-resilient crop varieties.
  • Strengthen agricultural research and extension services.
  • Improve policy frameworks and institutional capacity.
• Economic and Social Impacts:
  • 35.8% of the population is below the poverty line.
  • Food prices are a major concern for poor households.
  • Agricultural production has fluctuated due to climate shocks and economic instability.
• Environmental Challenges:
  • Water losses due to inefficient irrigation.
  • Soil salinization, erosion, and degradation.
  • Pollution from agricultural and industrial waste.
  • Glacial retreat affecting long-term water availability.
• Policy and Institutional Context:
  • Armenia has submitted two National Communications to the UNFCCC.
  • EU Association Agreement negotiations are ongoing.
  • Agricultural subsidies are being used to support small farms and improve competitiveness.
  • Irrigation subsidies have been in place for some time.

Conclusion

The Country Note highlights the urgent need for climate change adaptation in Armenia's agriculture sector, given its high vulnerability and limited adaptive capacity. It underscores the importance of policy development, institutional involvement, and international cooperation to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and ensure sustainable agricultural production and rural development.