2012年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Azerbaijan___Climate_Change_and_Agriculture_Country_Note_20页_1mb

Summary of the Country Note on Climate Change and Agriculture in Azerbaijan

Core Content

This Country Note provides an overview of the impact of climate change on agriculture in Azerbaijan, highlighting the country's vulnerability, current challenges, and potential adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Main Points

• Azerbaijan's Vulnerability:

  • 39.7% of the workforce is employed in agriculture.
  • 47% of the population resides in rural areas.
  • 7.6% of the population lives below the national poverty line.
  • The country is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on agriculture, high poverty rates, and land degradation.

• Climate Conditions:

  • Azerbaijan is located in the northern subtropical zone with a continental climate.
  • It experiences mild winters and moisture shortages in summer, with frequent droughts.
  • The country has a wide range of climates, from semidesert to mountain tundra.

• Climate Projections:

  • Mean temperature is expected to increase by 0.30°C per decade from 2021 to 2050, leading to a cumulative increase of 1.4°C to 2.8°C by 2050.
  • Annual precipitation may increase by 10 to 20% by 2050, but with reductions during the growing season.
  • Streamflow reductions are projected in the Alazani (Ganikh) and Agstafa basins by 2100.
  • Increased exposure to pests and diseases due to rising temperatures.

• Agriculture Overview:

  • Agriculture accounts for 5.4% of GDP and 39.7% of employment.
  • Major crops include cereals (especially wheat), cotton, potatoes, grapes, vegetables, fruits, melons, sugar beet, sunflower, tobacco, and tea.
  • Livestock, particularly cattle, sheep, and goats, plays a key role in the economy.
  • Irrigated agriculture contributes over 80% of the total agricultural output, but faces challenges like water shortages and salinization.

• Adaptation Deficit:

  • The agricultural sector suffers from low productivity and an adaptation deficit.
  • Wheat yields in Azerbaijan are only 37% of those in Western Europe.
  • Factors contributing to the adaptation deficit include poor public services, lack of access to finance, and unsustainable land and water management.

• Environmental Issues:

  • Water resources are unevenly distributed and face significant challenges, including pollution, insufficient infrastructure, and loss due to leaks.
  • Soil degradation is a major issue, with 42% of land affected by erosion.
  • Agricultural waste management is lacking, leading to environmental pollution.
  • Deforestation and biodiversity loss are also concerns.

• Economic Impact:

  • Agriculture's share in GDP has declined from 25.3% in 1995 to 5.4% in 2010 due to rapid industrial development.
  • Despite this, agriculture remains a significant employer.
  • Rising agricultural prices have had a negative impact on households, with many spending over 60% of their budget on food.
  • The government has taken measures to reduce VAT on certain agricultural products to stabilize prices.

• Climate and Economic Context:

  • Azerbaijan has engaged with the European Union through agreements and projects aimed at improving food security and agricultural development.
  • The country has submitted National Communications to the UNFCCC, indicating some level of policy engagement on climate change.

Key Information

• Agricultural Zones:

  • Azerbaijan is divided into four agricultural zones based on elevation, irrigation, temperature, and precipitation: high rainfall (dark blue), irrigated (light blue), low rainfall (light green), and subtropical (dark green).

• Water Resources:

  • Total water resources are approximately 39 km³, with 29.3 km³ as surface water and 8.8 km³ as groundwater.
  • Water shortages are a significant issue, with 27% of water drawn lost in delivery in 2005.
  • Coastal areas have been affected by Caspian Sea flooding, with economic damages reaching up to 2.5 billion USD.

• Land Degradation:

  • 96% of human-induced land degradation in Azerbaijan is due to agricultural activities.
  • Erosion affects 3.7 million hectares, with 0.7 million hectares suitable for agriculture.
  • Salinization of irrigated lands is a growing problem, reducing agricultural productivity.

• Extreme Weather Events:

  • There has been an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, landslides, and forest fires.
  • The number of days with temperatures over 20°C and 25°C has increased, indicating a warming climate.

• Policy and Institutional Context:

  • The country has a policy context that includes engagement with international organizations like the World Bank and the European Union.
  • Institutional capacity to address climate change is limited, which is a major challenge for sustainable agricultural development.

Ways Forward

• The document emphasizes the need for addressing the adaptation deficit through improved policies and institutional capacity.
• It calls for increased investment in sustainable agricultural practices, better water management, and enhanced resilience to climate change.
• Climate change adaptation strategies should be integrated into national development goals to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.

Conclusion

Azerbaijan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on agriculture, high poverty rates, and environmental degradation. The country faces significant challenges in terms of water scarcity, soil erosion, and climate-induced changes in crop production. Addressing these issues requires a comprehensive approach that includes policy reforms, institutional strengthening, and sustainable agricultural practices.