20230828-招银国际-广汽集团-02238.HK-Homegrown_brands_likely_to_narrow_loss_in_2H23_4页_831kb

报告摘要

Maintain BUY rating with target price HK$ 7.00, representing a +69.9% upside from current price HK$ 4.12.
GAC faces a mixed picture in 2H23E due to concerns over GAC Mitsubishi's goodwill impairment, but Aion is expected to cut net loss by >50% in FY24E with Hyper series ramp-up.

Q2 2023 Performance: Revenue slightly lower than forecast due to price war, gross margin in-line with expectations. Net profit slightly higher, driven by SG&A and R&D beats.
2H23E Projections: Lower net profit forecast (HK$ 4.9bn vs. previous estimate), due to profitability misses at GAC Honda and Mitsubishi. Aion expected to significantly improve margins, potentially attracting more investor attention.
FY24E Outlook: Net profit projected to rise 20% YoY to HK$ 5.9bn, supported by Trumpchi's profitability and reduced equity income decline from GAC Mitsubishi.

SOTP Valuation: Target price HK$ 7.00 based on revised FY24E P/S multiple. Aion valued at HK$ 4.4 per share (0.7x P/S estimate), JVs at HK$ 2.6 per share.
Financial Summary: Revenue growth expected at 9.7% in FY24E, net margin 3.8%. Key risks include lower sales volume and industry de-rating.

Market Risks: Potential goodwill impairment at GAC Mitsubishi, slower-than-expected Aion margin improvements.
Macroeconomic Factors: Price war impacts, de-rating of the automotive sector.

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