20240110-冠通期货-沥青_做多裂解价差轻仓持有_3页_659kb

Asphalt Market Analysis Summary

Key Overview

This report from Guantong Research (January 10, 2024) analyzes asphalt futures and spot markets, recommending a light long position on the crack spread. The investment carries risk, and readers should read the disclaimer.

Strategy Analysis

• Recommendation: Maintain a light long position on the crack spread by doing a long on asphalt and a short on crude oil. The ratio is one crude oil short contract for fifteen asphalt long contracts.
• Rationale: The strategy exploits supply and demand dynamics, including low asphalt inventory and potential demand boosts from infrastructure investments, despite some economic slowdowns.

Supply and Demand Conditions

• Supply Side: Asphalt production rate has decreased, currently at 294%, remaining historically low. Winter storage contracts are being released, and related industries (e.g., road modification and waterproofing) show slight improvements but are still low.
• Demand Side: Infrastructure investment remains elevated but has slowed; central government bond issuance may support demand for asphalt. Economic indicators, such as freight transport growth, show downward trends.
• Inventory: Asphalt inventory levels are still historically low, supporting the current market conditions.

Market Prices

• Futures: The March 2024沥青期货合约 rose by 0.06% to 3633 yuan/ton, trading below the 5-day moving average.
• Spot: Asphalt spot prices in Shandong remained stable at 3480 yuan/ton.

Risks and Disclaimers

• Investments in asphalt trading are volatile; readers should refer to the end-page disclaimer for details on risks and disclaimers provided by Guantong Futures Research Company.