20230906-五矿期货-有色金属早报_6页_1mb

报告摘要

Market Overview: Prices showed significant gains, with the SH main contract closing at 222090 CNY/ton, up 215%. Domestic inventory increased by 32 tons to 7948 tons, while LME inventory decreased by 5 tons to 6385 tons.
Supply and Demand: Average spot price for No. 1 tin in the Yangtze River region was 221250 CNY/ton. Refinery concentrate prices were higher, reflecting strong input costs. Import data shows increased imports in July 2023.
Outlook: Market is in a strong position, with potential volatility based on broader economic factors.

Market Overview: SH main contract ended at 69640 CNY/ton after exploring lower prices following rising oil costs and RMB depreciation. International prices bounced back, with LME closing at 8473 $/ton, up 2.7%.
Inventory and Trade: LME inventory dropped to 107400 tons, indicating tight supply. Imports face losses, with a short-term deficit narrowing. Production rose significantly, but exports also increased, showing mixed global dynamics.
Outlook: Supportive from low inventory and policy hopes, with imports maintaining a crucial role; close monitoring needed on economic and demand fronts.

Market Overview: SH main contract saw gains, closing at 16765 CNY/ton. Domestic demand remains sluggish, with production challenges and weak purchase interest, particularly from battery and smelting sectors.
Inventory and Trade: LME inventory held steady, with prices trending downward, facing export pressures. Spot prices suggest an unsupportive environment despite policy optimism.
Outlook: Possibly bearish in the medium term due to weak demand and elevated supply from secondary production; watch for lead acid battery demand factors.

Market Overview: Prices for zinc derivatives held steady, with SH main contract closing at 21300 CNY/ton. Domestic and international inventories show small variations, adding stability.
Supply and Demand: Trade deficits highlight import windows, with production and inventory trends mixed. Downstream demand remains diluted amid elevated prices and supply concerns.
Outlook: Leaning toward a sideways pattern; braces for potential support from policy factors despite uneven supply-demand balance.

Market Overview: Record-low inventory levels at 519Mt underscore supply-constrained dynamics, though SH prices dropped modestly to 19225 CNY/ton. LME inventory rose slightly.
Supply and Demand: China's output surged by 195% year-over-year, while net imports remained substantial, indicating global shift impact.
Outlook: Market likely to see sustained volatility; geopolitical and policy shifts will dictate next moves.

Market Overview: Battery-grade lithium prices declined by 2500 CNY, reflecting cooled demand amid falling nickel core (average sell losses -122%). Trade and production figures show this is an adjusting price period.
Outlook: Market sentiment cautious with falling inventories; hopes lie in demand revival from industrial uptake.

Market Overview: Both SH and LME nickel prices experienced upward trends post tough segments, with references around a key support area.
Inventory, Imports, and Demand: Supply complements demand回暖, particularly in nickel iron, fueling an overall optimistic scenario for rebalancing, though concerns over inventory hold-back remain.
Outlook: Anticipate further increases based on policy uptake; look for firmness in nickel fundamentals driven by resource policies and economic recovery.

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