20230720-招银国际-特步国际-01368.HK-A_high-quality_2Q23_and_guidance_unchanged_11页_1mb

报告摘要

Xtep (1368 HK) Company Update Summary

Key Performance: Xtep's 2Q23 results were inline with expectations, featuring high-quality growth in retail sales despite a slight slowdown from 20% to ~19% growth. The company maintained a strong retail discounts position, improved to 25% off in Q2, and achieved robust sales in offline channels compared to e-commerce. Kids and running segments showed strong growth, contributing to an overall positive performance.
Guidance: Management reiterated FY23E sales and net profit guidance unchanged, despite macro headwinds. 2H23E sales guidance lowered to 20%+ from 25%+, while net profit growth remains strong, supported by higher gross and operating margins through ASP increases and better product mix. Forecasts for 1H23E indicate ~11% sales and ~14% net profit growth.
Valuation: BUY recommendation maintained, with target price cut to HK$11.17 (down 41% YoY), valuing the stock at 16x FY23E P/E and a 0.7x PEG, reflecting slightly reduced profit expectations due to slower margin improvements.
Market Outlook: Anticipating cautious optimism for H223E and beyond, with offsetting factors including weak macro demand, domestic fashion cooldown, and intensified competition. Xtep is expected to outperform due to its value proposition and lower-tier city demand. Inventory normalization is ongoing, with potential discounts in 2H23E.
New Brands: Saucony and Merrell delivered >100% sales growth in H123E, exceeding group guidance, while K-Swiss and Palladium faced overseas challenges, keeping net losses below RMB 150mn.
Risks and Challenges: Headwinds from macroeconomic conditions, domestic fashion trends, and competition from international brands were noted. Management confidence is strong, but momentum has slowed in recent months.
Recommendations: Maintain BUY based on attractive valuation, but monitor guidance and inventory levels for adjustments.