20250717-招银国际-特步国际-01368.HK-2Q25_was_weak_but_guidance_remained_intact_8页_1mb

报告摘要

CMB International Global Markets
Date: July 17, 2025

2Q25 performance: Sales missed market expectations slightly due to weaker industry trends and aggressive discounting by competitors during the June 2025 period. However, the Company's FY25E guidance remains intact, supported by healthy inventory levels and conservative management assumptions.
Maintain BUY rating: Target Price (TP) remains HK$7.20, based on a 14x FY25E P/E, up from the current 10x valuation, which is considered undemanding compared to its 8-year average of 15x.
Inventory and discounts: Inventory-to-sales ratio stabilized at ~4.5 months (up slightly YoY/QoQ), and retail discounts remained in the 25%-30% range, indicating controlled inventory levels.

Xtep Core Brand:
- Running segment (professional products) drove strong growth (30%+ YoY in H1 25E), offsetting potential laggard performance in lifestyle products.
- Accelerated growth expected in H2 25E, driven by the launch of the new flagship shoes (160X 7.0) and a revised plan for the Double 11 Festival.
Saucony Brand:
- Management views e-commerce slowdown as temporary; offline expansion gains momentum with plans to open more high-tier stores.
- Product diversification (OG series, apparel, cross-category items) supports growth, though discount-controlled strategy shifts may limit short-term e-commerce performance.

Revenue: 5.4% YoY growth in FY25E to HK$14,312 million, up from 13,577 million in FY24A.
Profit: Net profit growth of 4.9% YoY to HK$1,372 million, driven by margin expansion in professional sports.
Key Metrics:
- Current share price: HK$5.34, trading at 10x FY25E P/E.
- Gross margin: 43.8% in FY24A, expected to reach 44.9% in FY27E.

Intensified competition and promotional pressures in the consumer sector.
Dependency on China's retail environment and potential policy changes.
Execution risks with DTC transformation, including store repurchases and infrastructure upgrades.