20180320-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_43页_2mb

报告摘要

Asia Pacific Daily Summary

Core Content

This document provides a summary of key events, financial performance, and analyst insights related to Asian markets and companies for the period around August 2012. It includes information on company roadshows, regional indices, Daiwa's research reports, and financial summaries of specific companies.

Company Roadshows

20 Aug: Prosperity REIT (808 HK) - Video Con. Tokyo
20-21 Aug: West China Cement (2233 HK) - NDR, London
21 Aug:
- Xinyi Glass (868 HK) - Luncheon, HK
- Shenzhen Int'l (2313 HK) - NDR, HK
- AMVIG (2300 HK) - NDR, SG
21-22 Aug: Mando (060980 KS) - NDR, SG
22 Aug: China Suntien (956 HK) - NDR, HK
23-24 Aug:
- Mando (060980 KS) - NDR, HK
- Shinhan Financial Group (055550 KS) - NDR, HK
- Techtronic Industries (669 HK) - NDR, SG
- West China Cement (2233 HK) - NDR, SG
28 Aug:
- RexLot (555 HK) - NDR, HK
- Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT SP) - NDR, Tokyo
- Hysan (14 HK) - Video Con. HK, SG, Tokyo
29 Aug: Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) - Video Con. Tokyo, SG
30 Aug: RexLot (555 HK) - NDR, SG

Regional Indices

Market	1D Change	1M Change	YTD Change	EPS Growth 11E	EPS Growth 12E	PER 11E	PER 12E
HSI	0.8%	3.4%	9.1%	(0.4)%	8.5%	10.4	9.6
HSCEI	0.9%	4.8%	(1.1)%	6.8%	8.8%	7.1	6.5
SENSEX*	0.2%	3.4%	14.5%	12.7%	13.6%	13.4**	11.8**
KOSPI	(0.6)%	6.8%	6.6%	40.6%	19.6%	9.8	8.2
TWSE	(0.3)%	4.8%	5.6%	13.4%	24.6%	16.3	13.2
FSSTI	(0.0)%	1.6%	15.7%	10.0%	8.5%	14.0	12.9
ASX 200	0.9%	5.5%	7.7%	10.1%	11.7%	12.1	10.9
TOPIX	0.9%	3.0%	5.1%	66.7%	18.2%	11.9	10.1

*Valuation based on MSCI India
**MSCI India price as of 16 Aug

Daiwa's Banner Products

Daphne International (210 HK):
- Target price: HK$10.17 → HK$7.12
- Downside: -16.8%
- Share price (17 Aug): HK$8.56
- Rating: Underperform
- Key points:
  - Daphne's share-price rally presents a selling opportunity
  - The balancing act between market share gains and profitability continues
  - Cut 2012-13 forecasts due to margin pressure
  - SSS growth slowing and market expectations of growth above management's guidance less likely to come to fruition

Other Research Highlights

Techtronic Industries (669 HK): Buy recommendation
Prosperity REIT (808 HK): Outperform recommendation
Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777 HK): Buy recommendation
BS Financial (138930 KS): Buy recommendation
AMOREPACIFIC Group (002790 KS): Not Rated
Huchems Fine Chemical (069260 KS): Not Rated
Korea: share prices and Daiwa recommendation trends: Covered on P.36
Economic calendar – August 2012: Covered on P.37
Rating and target-price information: Covered on P.38
Recently published reports: Covered on P.38

Financial Summary (Daphne International)

Metric	2012E (HK$)	2013E (HK$)	2014E (HK$)
Revenue (m)	10,301	12,242	14,629
Operating profit (m)	1,358	1,562	2,002
Net profit (m)	1,033	1,197	1,520
Core EPS	0.544	0.630	0.800
DPS	0.179	0.209	0.253
PER	15.7	13.6	10.7
PBR	3.0	2.5	2.0
EV/EBITDA	7.7	6.1	4.6
ROE (%)	23.6	23.3	23.2

Key Assumptions

Year to 31 Dec	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012E	2013E	2014E
Number of stores	2,859	3,642	4,225	5,199	6,165	6,965	7,765	8,585
Same store sales growth (%)	-	-	5.0	4.6	21.0	12.0	12.0	12.0
Gross margin (%)	47.5	52.7	55.0	57.4	61.1	60.5	61.6	62.7
EBIT margin (%)	13.9	12.8	14.7	14.1	15.2	13.2	12.8	13.7

Profit and Loss

Metric	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012E	2013E	2014E
Core brands	2,862	4,265	5,018	5,697	7,671	9,402	11,286	13,588
Other brands	284	404	279	430	530	579	684	810
Others	708	620	521	607	926	926	926	926
Total revenue	3,854	5,289	5,832	6,624	8,577	10,301	12,242	14,629
Other income	44	(8)	21	146	105	0	0	0
COGS	(2,024)	(2,502)	(2,625)	(2,823)	(3,333)	(4,071)	(4,704)	(5,464)
SG&A	(1,241)	(1,986)	(2,236)	(2,788)	(3,737)	(4,615)	(5,620)	(6,715)
Other op. expenses	(97)	(117)	(135)	(142)	(186)	(289)	(389)	(482)
Operating profit	537	676	856	935	1,305	1,358	1,562	2,002
Net-interest inc./(exp.)	(7)	(11)	(20)	(8)	(367)	(371)	(432)	(563)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others	0	1	(203)	(77)	(30)	0	0	0
Pre-tax profit	530	666	634	850	1,322	1,376	1,601	2,085
Tax	(141)	(169)	(233)	(239)	(377)	(371)	(432)	(563)
Min. int./pref. div./others	(4)	(4)	(7)	(16)	(12)	(18)	(18)	(25)
Net profit (reported)	384	493	394	596	933	986	1,151	1,497
Net profit (adjusted)	384	493	619	714	979	1,033	1,197	1,520
EPS (reported) (HK$)	0.235	0.301	0.240	0.364	0.570	0.600	0.700	0.845
EPS (adjusted) (HK$)	0.235	0.301	0.356	0.383	0.522	0.544	0.630	0.800
DPS (HK$)	0.050	0.055	0.080	0.120	0.170	0.179	0.209	0.253
PBR (x)	3.0	2.5	2.0	-	-	-	-	-
EV/EBITDA (x)	7.7	6.1	4.6	-	-	-	-	-
ROE (%)	23.6	23.3	23.2	-	-	-	-	-

Cash Flow

Metric	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012E	2013E	2014E
Profit before tax	530	666	634	850	1,322	1,376	1,601	2,085
Depreciation and amortisation	97	117	135	142	186	289	389	482
Tax paid	(81)	(131)	(201)	(264)	(367)	(371)	(432)	(563)
Change in working capital	(327)	(517)	531	18	(1,003)	(86)	47	(579)
Other operational CF items	24	38	251	146	105	(18)	(38)	(84)
Cash flow from operations	243	173	1,350	892	(149)	689	1,066	877
Capex	(179)	(230)	(138)	(273)	(392)	(500)	(500)	(464)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals	(10)	31	4	(37)	(30)	0	0	0
Other investing CF items	5	3	(71)	80	99	65	86	108
Cash flow from investing	(184)	(196)	(205)	(229)	(323)	(435)	(414)	(356)
Change in debt	12	74	353	(34)	(4)	0	0	0
Net share issues/(repurchases)	0	0	0	0	19	0	0	400
Dividends paid	(82)	(82)	(98)	(180)	(231)	(295)	(344)	(447)
Other financing CF items	(8)	(16)	(21)	(22)	(26)	(48)	(48)	(25)
Cash flow from financing	(78)	(25)	235	(236)	(242)	(343)	(392)	(72)
Forex effect/others	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Change in cash	(19)	(48)	1,380	427	(322)	412	760	913
Free cash flow	65	(57)	1,212	619	(149)	689	1,066	877

Balance Sheet

Metric	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012E	2013E	2014E
Cash & short-term investment	184	148	1,548	2,024	1,796	2,207	2,967	3,880
Inventory	992	1,355	889	1,084	2,059	2,179	2,254	2,896
Accounts receivable	155	163	181	210	274	308	384	443
Other current assets	303	481	521	607	926	926	926	926
Total current assets	1,634	2,147	3,139	3,926	5,055	5,621	6,531	8,145
Fixed assets	500	575	561	711	900	1,120	1,240	1,231
Goodwill & intangibles	26	39	27	130	130	123	117	110
Other non-current assets	201	201	214	283	417	415	413	411
Total assets	2,362	2,962	3,941	5,049	6,501	7,279	8,301	9,897
Short-term debt	195	271	15	11	7	7	7	7
Accounts payable	461	397	385	578	819	887	1,085	1,206
Other current liabilities	298	387	763	571	814	814	814	814
Total current liabilities	954	1,054	1,163	1,160	1,640	1,708	1,906	2,027
Long-term debt	0	0	516	557	606	606	606	0
Other non-current liabilities	1	17	21	24	24	24	24	24
Total liabilities	955	1,071	1,699	1,741	2,270	2,338	2,535	2,050
Share capital	164	164	164	164	164	164	164	443
Reserves/R.E./others	1,209	1,691	2,039	2,961	3,872	4,563	5,370	7,147
Shareholders' equity	1,373	1,855	2,203	3,124	4,036	4,727	5,534	7,590
Minority interests	34	37	39	183	196	214	231	256
Total equity & liabilities	2,362	2,962	3,941	5,049	6,501	7,279	8,301	9,897
EV	14,063	14,177	13,039	12,744	13,033	12,687	11,944	11,544
Net debt/(cash)	11	123	(1,018)	(1,456)	(1,183)	(1,595)	(2,354)	(3,873)
BVPS (HK$)	0.838	1.132	1.345	1.908	2.464	2.876	3.367	4.284

Key Ratios

Metric	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012E	2013E	2014E
Sales (YoY)	24.6	37.3	10.3	13.6	29.5	20.1	18.8	19.5
EBITDA (YoY)	36.4	25.3	24.9	8.6	38.5	10.4	18.5	27.3
Operating profit (YoY)	35.3	26.0	26.6	9.1	39.7	4.0	15.1	28.1
Net profit (YoY)	31.8	28.2	25.6	15.4	37.0	5.5	15.9	27.0
EPS (YoY)	31.8	28.2	18.4	7.4	36.4	4.1	15.9	27.0
Gross-profit margin	47.5	52.7	55.0	57.4	61.1	60.5	61.6	62.7
EBITDA margin	16.4	15.0	17.0	16.3	17.4	16.0	15.9	17.0
Operating-profit margin	13.9	12.8	14.7	14.1	15.2	13.2	12.8	13.7
ROAE	32.7	30.5	30.5	26.8	27.3	23.6	23.3	23.2
ROAA	18.8	18.5	17.9	15.9	16.9	15.0	15.4	16.7
ROCE	38.4	35.9	34.7	28.1	-	-	-	-

Main Views

Daphne International:
- Target price reduced from HK$10.17 to HK$7.12
- Downside of -16.8%
- Rating: Underperform
- Sales growth slowing, and market expectations above management's guidance are unlikely
- Operating deleveraging continues, leading to lower net profit forecasts
- Management's outlook for 2H12 is less positive
Techtronic Industries (669 HK):
- Buy recommendation
Prosperity REIT (808 HK):
- Outperform recommendation
- An upgrading process is underway
Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777 HK):
- Buy recommendation
- A growth company on a more solid foundation
Other Research:
- Daiwa's economic calendar and rating updates are covered
- Reports on U.S. economic conditions and the Euro area

Key Insights

Daphne International's performance is influenced by supply chain issues and margin pressures
Daiwa's forecasts for Daphne are below consensus, reflecting operating deleveraging
The financial health of Daphne is monitored through various metrics including revenue, EPS, and PER
There are ongoing discussions about the impact of economic conditions on Asian markets
The document highlights the importance of understanding earnings growth and market dynamics for investment decisions

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