【Janus_Henderson】2024年市场导航：投资展望-连锁反应研究报告_13页_3mb

2024 Investment Outlook: Chain Reactions

Core Content

Janus Henderson Market GPS is a semi-annual investment outlook that combines insights from the investment and Portfolio Construction and Strategy (PCS) teams. It provides research-driven analysis across global asset classes, offering differentiated perspectives to help clients position for the future.

The 2024 outlook highlights a global economy entering a fragile state after a strong 2023, with a focus on defensive positioning. However, opportunities exist to maintain exposure to long-term growth themes like AI and cloud computing, which are reshaping the global economy.

Main Points

• Global Markets:

  • The economy is expected to face chain reactions due to higher interest rates, a weakening consumer, and changing inflation, employment, and geopolitical dynamics.
  • Quality companies with steady earnings and strong balance sheets are better positioned to withstand economic weakness and benefit from long-term trends.
  • Equities have historically outperformed cash following a Fed rate pause, and this is expected to continue in 2024.

• U.S. Equities:

  • Quality earnings growth is the key to long-term success, especially in a high-rate environment.
  • The U.S. is likely in the late stage of the interest rate cycle, making quality-focused stocks more attractive.
  • Earnings growth is the primary driver of equity returns across all time horizons, reinforcing the case for quality exposure.

• European Equities:

  • Europe faces a challenging macroeconomic environment, but strong global brands and attractive valuations present opportunities.
  • European companies are more globally diversified than their U.S. counterparts, with a significant portion of sales outside Europe.
  • European equities are currently undervalued compared to U.S. stocks, offering a compelling entry point.

• Thematic Equities:

  • Thematic investing allows investors to capitalize on long-term secular trends like healthcare, technology, real estate, and sustainable equities.
  • A balanced approach to thematic exposure is important to avoid unintended concentration and maintain diversification.
  • Active management is key to identifying companies that align with these themes and can thrive across economic cycles.

• Fixed Income:

  • Higher yields are available across U.S. fixed income sectors, but not all yield is equal.
  • Securitized assets like CLOs and CMBS are currently offering attractive spreads and total yields.
  • These assets may provide better risk-adjusted returns due to their wider spreads and lower correlation to equities.

• Alternatives:

  • Private assets have grown significantly since 2010, reaching $12 trillion in AUM by 2022.
  • Private assets offer income, diversification, and growth potential, but require careful consideration due to unique risks such as valuation dynamics, leverage, and liquidity constraints.
  • A framework for private asset allocation considers these outcomes and aligns them with investor goals.

Key Information

• Defensive positioning is advised in 2024 due to the fragile state of the global economy.
• Quality earnings are a central theme across equities, with a focus on companies that can sustain earnings growth through economic cycles.
• Securitized assets (e.g., CLOs, CMBS) are currently undervalued and offer attractive spreads, making them a compelling investment option.
• Thematic investing can provide diversification and exposure to long-term growth drivers, but needs to be approached with care to avoid over-concentration.
• European equities are undervalued relative to U.S. stocks and offer strong dividends and global exposure.
• Private assets are becoming more important in portfolio construction due to their low correlation to public markets and potential for risk-adjusted returns, but require active management and careful risk assessment.

Conclusion

The 2024 investment outlook emphasizes the importance of quality, thematic investing, and securitized assets in navigating a complex and evolving market environment. While the global economy faces challenges, these strategies can help investors position for long-term growth and diversification. The PCS team advocates for a disciplined, active approach to asset allocation, ensuring that portfolios are resilient across different market cycles.